Welcome back to Week 15. As always, our goal in this article is to review settings and groups for optimizers. We’re in search of a nicely balanced slate of lineups that is both highly correlated and properly leveraged against our projected ownership, while utilizing the best NFL DFS picks for DraftKings and FanDuel.
Between this first look and the Sunday Update version, which is released first thing Sunday mornings, I will run thousands of combinations of lineups to dial in the correct boosts and combinations. Awesemo’s Top Stacks Tool is a big part of this process. My strong recommendation is that you use these as building blocks along with those tools to make further tweaks of your own as we approach lock for NFL DFS Week 15.
I’m also making use of the new NFL boom/bust tool in making my NFL DFS picks for this week. If you’re familiar with the product from our NBA toolkit, it operates the same way, providing a probability that a player will either hit or miss a target score. I feel like this is going to be another game-changer for the Awesemo subscriber base and I can’t wait to take it for a run this weekend. Check it out!
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NFL DFS Picks – Optimizer Groups-Think: Week 15 – Sunday Update
DraftKings + FanDuel Stack Rules:
QB with at least one RB/WR/TE from Opposing Team
QB with at least one WR/TE from Same Team (note: It’s fine to make this two or to utilize two of these, one with WR/TE and one with RB/WR/TE, but we can refine that and get it exactly how we want it via Groups)
QB with at most zero DST from Same Team (personal preference)
Limit Rules:Â
Limit QB/RB/WR/TE from Same Team to three
Limit RB/WR/TE from Same Team to one unless paired with QB from Same Team OR Opposing Team
Limit RB from Same Team to one (I’m also doing this with WR in a separate rule that adds an “unless paired with QB or opposing QB” but it’s personal preference for NFL DFS)
Construction:Â
Add players to groups. Select the quarterback (or otherwise indicated player) as the Key Player for both his team’s group and the recommended opposing group. This is a different group than the group that will stack the other side of this game. For example, I will have four groups for the Detroit at Arizona game: Detroit, Detroit Opposing, Arizona and Arizona Opposing.
Sunday Update
The Sunday update is in, all of our important in/outs have been accounted for up to this point. You’ll need to follow along with the NewsGod for the latest and make appropriate adjustments. We had another week of some overexposures to the tight end spot that I pushed down with negative bumps as you’ll find below. The rest of the boosts are included to strive for a better distribution within Fantasy Cruncher results, allowing access to a more diverse set of lineups that remain well-constructed. The new boom/bust tool and the Top Stacks tool are a very valuable part of this process, you should use them with these groups as you build lineups, specifically to address your quarterback and stack distributions on DraftKings and FanDuel, which we do not get into here.
NFL DFS Team Groups: Main Slate
Arizona Cardinals
Key Player: Kyler Murray
Setting: At least one
Group: DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Chase Edmonds, Larry Fitzgerald, Dan Arnold (Andy Isabella is likely out again for Week 15. I’m restricting Kenyan Drake but keeping Chase Edmonds based on passing game volume and overall projection)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert (-25%), Zach Ertz (-25%), Greg Ward (+15%), Jalen Reagor (+15%), Alshon Jeffrey (+15%), Travis Fulgham (+15%) (this Eagles passing game requires some guesswork)
Atlanta Falcons
Key Player: Matt Ryan
Setting: At least one
Group: Calvin Ridley, Hayden Hurst, Russell Gage, Brandon Powell (+25%), Christian Blake (+25%), (Julio Jones is out for Week 15. I’m keeping Todd Gurley out of the group on passing game volume. Christian Blake is a fringe play with his very low projection)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown (+10%), Mike Evans (+20%), Rob Gronkowski, Leonard Fournette (-35%) (adding Fournette here to control his exposure a bit)
Baltimore Ravens
Key Player: Lamar Jackson
Setting: At most one
Group: Mark Andrews (-5%), Marquise Brown, Willie Snead, Dez Bryant (+25%), Devin Duvernay (+25%) (I primarily want the first three on this list, but will welcome minimal shares of the other two in some volume in this matchup)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: James Robinson (-25%), DJ Chark, Laviska Shenault, Keelan Cole
Chicago Bears
Key Player: Mitchell Trubisky
Setting: At least one (we’ll give Trubisky the benefit of the doubt once again after a strong performance last week against the bad Lions secondary)
Group: Allen Robinson, Darnell Mooney, Anthony Miller, David Montgomery, Cole Kmet (Cordarelle Patterson is a fringe play based on projection as a part of this group for Week 15 DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Dalvin Cook (-10%), Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen, Irv Smith
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Key Player: Andy Dalton
Setting: At least one
Group: Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper (+10%), CeeDee Lamb (+10%), Dalton Schultz (-15%), Michael Gallup (+10%)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Brandon Aiyuk, Kendrick Bourne, Richie James, Jordan Reed (with the “at most” you’re likely to get some Raheem Mostert in lineups where none of these players appear, if you’re using the recommended rules from above. If you want to limit these shares add him to the group and give him a negative bump around 25-35%)
Detroit Lions
Key Player: Matthew Stafford
Setting: At least one
Group: D’Andre Swift, Marvin Jones (+10%), Danny Amendola (+15%), T.J. Hockenson (-15%), Quintez Cephus (+25%), (Kenny Golladay will miss Week 15. Mohamed Sanu isn’t pulling enough of a raw projection for me to include him, but for very large field tournaments he should be in some iterations with a +25% boost)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith
Houston Texans
Key Player: Deshaun Watson
Setting: At least one
Group: Brandin Cooks, Keke Coutee, Jordan Akins, Chad Hansen (+25%) (David Johnson is back from the COVID-19 list but I’m keeping him out of this group for DraftKings and FanDuel to start. Fells works as a “get different” dart throw in a limited number of crunches)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Jonathan Taylor, T.Y. Hilton, Nyhiem Hines, Michael Pittman, Zach Pascal (the tight ends can be added and the running backs subtracted from this group for different runs)
Indianapolis Colts
Key Player: Phillip Rivers
Setting: At least one
Group: Michael Pittman, Nyheim Hines, T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal (Feel free to decide between the three tight ends, I’m pulling them all from the group for the main runs but will add them here and there looking for minimal exposure. If Mo Alie-Cox does not play then I will cycle Burton and Doyle into more versions of this group)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Brandin Cooks, Keke Coutee, Jordan Akins, Chad Hansen (+15%)
Jacksonville Jaguars
Key Player: Gardner Minshew (Minshew is taking the reins back from Mike Glennon in Week 15, be sure to switch this up in saved groups)
Setting: At most one
Group: DJ Chark, Keelan Cole, Laviska Shenault, Tyler Eifert (I’m keeping this at most one and without James Robinson in the group again for Week 15 on DraftKings and FanDuel)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Mark Andrews (-10%), Marquise Brown, Willie Snead (+10%), Dez Bryant (+25%), Devin Duvernay (+25%)
Kansas City Chiefs
Key Player: Patrick Mahomes
Setting: At least two (I will set this to one for some of my crunches but I am comfortable getting a large share of this game)
Group: Tyreek Hill (+15%), Travis Kelce (-25%), Sammy Watkins (-15%), Demarcus Robinson (+25%), Mecole Hardman (+25%) (I’m holding off on including either running back. I can see using Hardman and Robinson in a rotation on DraftKings and FanDuel instead of including both)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Alvin Kamara (-15%), Emmanuel Sanders, Tre’Quan Smith (+10%), Jared Cook (+25%), Deonte Harris (+25%) (Michael Thomas is out for Week 15)
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Los Angeles Rams
Key Player: Jared Goff
Setting: At least one
Group: Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee, Josh Reynolds, Van Jefferson (Gerald Everett can swap in at the tight end spot in a few versions of this group, Van Jefferson is a fringe play)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Jamison Crowder, Denzel Mims, Breshad Perriman
Miami Dolphins
Key Player: Tua Tagovailoa
Setting: At least one
Group: DeVante Parker, Lynn Bowden (+10%), Durham Smythe (-15%), Isaiah Ford (+10%) (Jakeem Grant is expected to miss Week 15. Myles Gaskin is out again, Salvon Ahmed should be back but I don’t need to force him here. Mike Gesicki will also be out)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Jakobi Meyers, Damiere Byrd (+15%), N’keal Harry (+15%), James White (+15%), Sony Michel (-35%) (I’m adding Sony Michel with a negative bump here to control exposures to him in groups that don’t get one of these others. I don’t want to ride much of him as the run-back)
Minnesota Vikings
Key Player: Kirk Cousins
Setting: At least one
Group: Adam Thielen, Justin Jefferson, Irv Smith, Chad Beebe (I’m getting plenty of Dalvin Cook on his own so far)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Allen Robinson (-10%), Darnell Mooney, Anthony Miller, Cole Kmet
New England Patriots
Key Player: Cam Newton
Setting: At most one
Group: Jakobi Meyers, Damiere Byrd (+15%), James White (+15%), N’Keal Harry (+15%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: DeVante Parker, Lynn Bowden (+15%), Jakeem Grant (+15%), Durham Smythe (-25%)
New Orleans Saints
Key Player: Drew Brees (Brees will be back in action for Week 15 and the possible end of his Hall of Fame career, be sure to switch up saved groups if you want to catch one of your last chances to win with him)
Setting: At least one
Group: Alvin Kamara, Emmanuel Sanders, Jared Cook, Tre’Quan Smith, Deonte Harris (Michael Thomas is out this week. Once again I can take or leave Latavius Murray in this group for Week 15 DraftKings and FanDuel lineups.)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Travis Kelce (-15%), Tyreek Hill (+15%), Sammy Watkins, Mecole Hardman (+15%), Demarcus Robinson (+15%)
New York Jets
Key Player: Sam Darnold
Setting: At most one
Group: Jamison Crowder, Brashad Perriman, Denzel Mims
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee, Josh Reynolds
Philadelphia Eagles
Key Player: Jalen Hurts
Setting: At most one (Hurts played well last week but gained many of his fantasy points with his legs rather than his arm, I’m comfortable limiting this stack)
Group: Miles Sanders, Dallas Goedert (-25%), Jalen Reagor (+15%), Greg Ward (+15%), Zach Ertz (-25%), Travis Fulgham, Alshon Jeffrey (+15%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: DeAndre Hopkins, Christian Kirk, Larry Fitzgerald
Seattle Seahawks
Key Player: Russell Wilson
Setting: At most two
Group: D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, David Moore (+25%), Jacob Hollister (-35%), Will Dissley (-15%) (The tight ends wind up in the group because their exposures were going wild otherwise)
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Terry McLaurin, J.D. McKissic, Cam Sims, Logan Thomas (+15%)
San Francisco 49ers
Key Player: Nick Mullens
Setting: At most one
Group: Kendrick Bourne, Brandon Aiyuk, Jordan Reed, Richie James
Opposing Setting: At most one
Group: Amari Cooper, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Gallup, Dalton Schultz (we were getting too much Ezekiel Elliott given his standing in Awesemo’s new NFL DFS boom/bust tool and his raw projection, he’s cut from the group but will probably make it for a few rounds)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Key Player: Tom Brady
Setting: At least two (I’ll run this at one in roughly half of my crunches)
Group: Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Antonio Brown, Rob Gronkowski (if you add Cameron Brate give him a -15%)
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: Calvin Ridley, Russell Gage, Hayden Hurst, Brandon Powell (+15%)
Tennessee Titans
Key Player: Ryan Tannehill
Setting: At least one
Group: A.J. Brown, Corey Davis, Jonnu Smith, Anthony Firsker
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: T.J. Hockenson (-15%), Marvin Jones (+10%), Danny Amendola (+15%), Quintez Cephus (+25%) (Mohamed Sanu is a fringe play on the run-back squad, if you include him and want to actually get a share or two you’ll need a 25% boost)
Washington Football Team
Key Player: Dwayne Haskins (Alex Smith is out, Haskins rotates in, be sure to make this change for saved groups)
Setting: At most one
Group: Terry McLaurin, J.D. McKissic (+15%), Logan Thomas (+15%), Cam Sims
Opposing Setting: At least one
Group: D.K. Metcalf (+15%), Tyler Lockett (+15%), David Moore (+25%), Jacob Hollister (-25%), Will Dissly (-10%) (We’re adding the Seattle tight ends to the group mostly to help lower the exposure to them again here)
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