Greetings, Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo NFL DFS Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Sunday, Monday and Thursday nights, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all your daily fantasy needs. We have loads to get into on this Monday Night slate between the Colts and Saints, with thoughts on Alvin Kamara, Drew Brees and more for your NFL DFS lineups!
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Check out the Sunday’s NFL Live Before Lock at 7:30 p.m. EST with Your Ol’ Pal EMac and Nolan Kelly as they break down tonight’s matchup for Single Game contests.
NFL DFS Picks: Indianapolis Colts at New Orleans Saints -8.5/47.5
This is a much more enticing game than the snooze fest we were treated to on Sunday Night Football.
Indianapolis Colts NFL DFS Picks
19.5 implied points
Quarterback
The Colts still have a slim chance of snagging a wild card berth, but they are going to need lots of help. New Orleans has already clinched their division, but they are focusing on home field advantage. Of course, they lost last week at home to the 49ers in the waning moments of the game—the same San Francisco team that dropped a game yesterday afternoon against the visiting Falcons. Coming full circle, the Falcons upset the Saints at home as well.
It seems a lifetime ago, but it really was Week 3 of this preseason when Andrew Luck announced his retirement. Jacoby Brissett has been an adequate fill in and more than just a game manager. That said, he has barely cracked the top-25 quarterback ranking in any of the projection systems I have looked at for this week.
The Colts have had to throw the last two weeks with 36 and 40 passing attempts and we should see something in the 35 range for Brissett against the Saints tonight. This is not an easy matchup as New Orleans has the ninth-best overall DVOA, 10th against both the pass and the run with the seventh-best adjusted sack rate. However, teams are posting solid fantasy points through the air out of volume and necessity. In his last five full games, Brissett has four aerial scores and two rushing touchdowns. If he gets T.Y. Hilton back tonight, that will be a major boost.
Running Back
Marlon Mack reported no setbacks after last week when he returned from a hand injury. We know that he is not very active in the passing game with only 14 targets on the season, but he did have three targets in four of his nine healthy games. Nyheim Hines is the polar opposite of his counterpart, limited in the rushing game but taking over the workload when the Colts are behind. Jordan Wilkins was in for just nine snaps and Jonathan Williams did not see an offensive snap last week.
Wide Receiver
T.Y. Hilton (calf) has played in only one of the last five games, but he should be on the field tonight. Keep an eye on the inactive report as he is going to be a game-time decision. If he is on the field, we should speculate that he is reasonably healthy and worth taking a chance on as the Colts try to stay alive for the playoffs. Parris Campbell, Devin Funchess and Chester Rogers are all out so the Colts signed Dontrelle Inman who spent time with them last season, but was with the Chargers for a couple games this year.
Zach Pascal and Marcus Johnson are healthy, but they are not the most talented options—though as the last men standing, the volume has been there. Over the last two weeks, Pascal has seen 19 targets for 12 catches, 183 yards and one touchdown and Johnson 13 for seven, 160 and one.
Tight End
With Eric Ebron on the injured reserve, Jack Doyle played 78% and 94% of the snaps the last two weeks with Mo Alie-Cox and Rost Travis seeing the scraps. Doyle has 17 targets in that span with Travis getting four and Alie-Cox one. Regardless of Hilton’s status, Doyle is a standout option from Indianapolis.
Defense/Special Teams
There is not much to see here with the Saints allowing three sacks, one fumble and one interception over their last four games. They have allowed 21 sacks which is the second-fewest in the league, and their eight turnovers are the fewest of any team.
New Orleans Saints NFL DFS Picks
28.0 implied points
Quarterback
The Saints have been having a phenomenal season despite their surprise losses to San Francisco last week and the Falcons earlier this season. They have a 10-3 record and have clinched the NFC South. They have an outstanding defense and of course, Drew Brees under center also helps. After missing a chunk of the first half of the season, Brees has been rolling with at least three touchdowns in four of his last six and topping 300 yards in three of those games. He is in contention for the Captain/MVP designation tonight.
Running Back
Which is more of a surprise: that Alvin Kamara has not topped 100 rushing or receiving yards in any game or that he has scored only two touchdowns this season? He is averaging 97.6 combined yards per game and is second on the team with 82 targets, 68 receptions and 462 receiving yards. Latavius Murray is his direct backup, though he is only on the field for a third of the snaps. In the last three games, he has topped 60 rushing yards twice, but he has a lonely pair of receptions in that same time frame.
Wide Receiver
Michael Thomas is in the midst of yet another sublime season and is on pace to break the single-season reception record of 143 catches set by Marvin Harrison in 2002. Thomas leads the league in targets, receptions and yards with 147, 121 and 1,424, respectively, and seven touchdowns. And those numbers come having played one fewer game than the rest of the league.
Ted Ginn Jr. and Tre’Quan Smith are the other receivers seeing targets and they have been relatively even with 19 for Ginn and 12 for Smith over the last five games. Deonte Harris has the only other target to a receiver in those five weeks.
Tight End
Jared Cook has been solid since returning from injury with 28 targets over the last five weeks and Josh Hill chipping in eight. In those games, Cook and Hill each have five red zone targets. The position has combined for nearly a third of the Saints passing touchdowns.
Defense/Special Teams
The Colts have allowed at least three sacks in four of their last seven games. They also have suffered seven interceptions and five fumbles. New Orleans has 19 takeaways which is the middle of the pack, but they are fourth in the league with 43 sacks. They have been an outstanding unit and are very much in play.
MNF NFL DFS Showdown Strategy
This is a tough one, so I will be building around Drew Brees and Michael Thomas and then a kicker or the New Orleans defense.
Single Game Ranking (taking into account projected production, pricing and popularity)
NFL DFS Top 10
- Michael Thomas:Â this is an easy decision on DraftKings with the full-PPR. On FanDuel, there is a case for Drew Brees instead.
- Drew Brees:Â he should have his hand in most of the scoring with the Saints 26 passing touchdowns against only eight on the ground.
- Jacoby Brissett:Â fingers crossed he runs one in tonight.
- Alvin Kamara: again, just two touchdowns on the season, that will correct at some point, right?
- Jared Cook:Â it was a toss-up between him and Kamara. They are neck-and-neck with Cook’s discounted price tag.
- Will Lutz and Chase McLaughlin:Â let price and personal preference be your deciding factors.
- New Orleans D/ST: there should be around five combined sacks/turnovers tonight.
- T.Y. Hilton: if he plays, he has to be considered reasonably healthy. Missing five weeks and a tough matchup are not in his favor.
- Jack Doyle:Â he has been the steady hand over the last month.
- Nyheim Hines:Â double digit carries plus targets are probably the ceiling, but the price makes up for it.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Secondary Plays
- Zach Pascal:Â if Hilton sits, move Pascal up to his spot in the top 10.
- Marlon Mack:Â really needs to score to be a difference maker with the likely negative game flow.
- Latavius Murray:Â like Mack, he needs a score or an in-game injury to Kamara.
- Ted Ginn Jr and Tre’Quan Smith: we know that Brees does not play favorites when it comes to touchdowns.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Lottery Ticket
- Taysom Hill:Â rushing, receiving and passing threat in the red zone. He even has blocked a kick this year.
- Indianapolis D/ST: the Saints do not allow sacks or turnovers.
- Marcus Johnson:Â if Hilton is out, move him up to Pascal’s spot in the secondary plays.
- Josh Hill:Â he is a touchdown threat.
- Jordan Wilkins, Ross Travis, Mo Alie-Cox, Dontrelle Inman:Â will probably combined for five touches and eight total targets.
- Chad Williams, Ashton Dulin, Deonte Harris, Krishawn Hogan: time to watch a Hallmark Holiday movie with the family.
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Good Luck in tonight’s Showdown Slate NFL DFS Gamers! ~ EMac
