NFL Prime Time Games: Showdown Week 15 Sunday Night Football (FREE)

Greetings, Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo NFL DFS Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Sunday, Monday and Thursday nights, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all your daily fantasy needs. We have loads to get into on this Sunday Night slate between the Bills and Steelers, with thoughts on Josh Allen, Devin Singletary and more for your NFL DFS lineups!

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Check out the Sunday’s NFL Live Before Lock at 7:30 p.m. EST with Your Ol’ Pal EMac and Eric Vojvodich as they break down tonight’s matchup for Single Game contests.

NFL DFS Picks: Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers -1.0/37.0

In my four years of writing the prime time article series, I do not remember a game total this low. Clearly both defenses are in play and touchdowns will likely be at a premium.

Buffalo Bills NFL DFS Picks

18.0 implied points

Quarterback

By most metrics, Pittsburgh is a top-five defense and there is an argument that at home, they are the best unit in the game right now. They have the fourth-best passing DVOA and are 2nd in adjusted sack rate. This is going to be a tough night for Josh Allen. The one bonus is that Allen is a big play waiting to happen. He can get it done with his arm or his legs and he is not afraid to try for the big throw. Just know that this bravado cuts both ways.

For some perspective, the second year signal-caller is the QB14-17 in most projection systems this weekend.

Running Back

On the season, the Steelers have allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs, but that has slipped a little over their last four games having to face the tandem of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt twice. Still, over that stretch, they have allowed the 10th-fewest fantasy points.  Four backs have topped 70 rushing yards and they have allowed just four rushing touchdowns and two passing touchdowns.

Devin Singletary has been solid as a rookie with his role and responsibilities increasing throughout the season. Over the last four games, it has been a 75%/25% split of the workload with Singletary getting the nod over Frank Gore. Patrick DiMarco is the only other running back to have seen snaps since Week 5 and his last touch was in Week 10.

Wide Receiver

Buffalo is running a lot of three-wide receiver sets with John Brown on the field nearly every snap. Cole Beasley has been playing 90% of the snaps over the last four weeks and then Isaiah McKenzie (65-75%) and Robert Foster (20-25%) have been rounding things out. Over the last three games, the targets have been Beasley 23, Brown 20, McKenzie 11 and Foster seven, which is about the proportion we should expect on Sunday night.

Tight End

Over the last five weeks, it has been Dawson Knox getting nearly all of the targets with 19 compared to three for Tyler Kroft. Neither has been particularly productive and the position has seen just two touchdowns with Knox getting the only one since Week 5.

Defense/Special Teams

The NFL seems to mean Not For Long when it comes to the ability of the Pittsburgh quarterbacks to stay on the field. This will be the sixth appearance this season for undrafted rookie Devlin Hodges and his fourth straight game. The Bills are ninth with 38 sacks this season or essentially three per game. Pittsburgh has suffered at least three sacks in four of their last five games along with four fumbles and six interceptions. The Bills defense is very much in play, even on the road.

Pittsburgh Steelers NFL DFS Picks

19.0 implied points

Quarterback

Projected out to a full game, undrafted rookie Devlin Hodges is averaging about 20 pass attempts per outing. We can see that coach Mike Tomlin is doing everything he can to limit turnovers as well as allow his defense keep the team in the game. The Steelers are firmly in the mix for a Wild Card berth and we should see more of the same. Keep in mind that James Conner should be making his return from a shoulder injury which will help Pittsburgh continue running a clock-control strategy. By most projection systems this week, Hodges is a bottom-five quarterback.

Running Back

It would seem that the return of James Conner is going to directly impact Benny Snell, who has averaged 17.7 carries over the last three games for 65 yards with two total targets for nine yards. Jaylen Samuels has seen 5.3 carries for 18 yards per game and seven targets for 66. The last time Conner returned from injury, he last about a quarter before reinjuring himself. While we would like to think he is healthy now, the NFL is a brutal sport and there is a chance he is returning early with the Pittsburgh playoff chances dwindling.

Wide Receiver

JuJu Smith-Schuster will be out again this week, so we should see Diontae Johnson and James Washington with the majority of what meager targets there are likely to be from Hodges. Over the last three games, Johnson is averaging 6.3 targets for 3.3 receptions and 34.3 yards with a score and Washington is averaging 5.0 targets for 3.6 receptions and 80.7 yards with twotouchdowns. Johnson also has two rushes for 33 yards in this time frame.

Tight End

Vance McDonald is out and Nick Vannett has one target in the last three gmaes. That is about all you need to know about this position with Devlin Hodges under center.

Defense/Special Teams

In the last two games, the Bills have suffered 10 sacks, though in the four games leading into that stretch, they ceded just four total sacks. Pittsburgh leads the league with 48 sacks this season while Buffalo is in the middle of the pack allowing 34 or 2.6 per game. The Steelers also lead the league with 33 takeaways and the Bills are allowing one turnover per game.

SNF NFL DFS Showdown Strategy

This is a tough one, so I will be building around Devin Singletary, Josh Allen and then on DraftKings adding in the Pittsburgh D/ST as this is shaping up to be a slugfest.

Single Game Ranking (taking into account projected production, pricing and popularity)

NFL DFS Top 10

1. Devin Singletary: getting 75% of the workload in what should be a low-scoring, hard-fought slugfest.
2. Josh Allen: if there is going to be a big play in this game, Allen is likely to be involved in it.
3. Pittsburgh D/ST: if there is going to be a return touchdown in this game, Allen is likely to be involved in it.
4. James Conner: how much do you trust that he can stay healthy with his bum shoulder?
5. James Washington: he has had his moments the last few games, but he is not cheap.
6. Devlin Hodges: winning a duck calling competition is going to seem like a cake walk compared to this matchup.
7. Chris Boswell and Steven Hauschka: we are going to need some savings and it could be a kicker’s delight with these defenses.
8. Cole Beasley and John Brown: we are paying a hefty premium on both sites.
9. Isaiah McKenzie: a punt play, but we need some savings, particularly on DraftKings.
10. Diontae Johnson: truly a similarly projected outcome as Washington, hard to be excited with 20-25 total pass attempts.

NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Secondary Plays

1. Dawson Knox: should see three or four targets, but not much production.
2. Buffalo D/ST: this could be another game where we can play both defenses and work it out from there.
3. Benny Snell Jr and Frank Gore: really need a lucky touchdown or an in-game injury to Conner or Singletary to have relevance.
4. Kerrith Whyte: returns kickoffs and has served as a change-of-pace back for the Steelers.

NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Lottery Ticket

1. Tevin Jones: a dart throw on DraftKings for the minimum price, nine targets in the last three games is actually significant for the Steelers.
2. Deon Cain: one target and one catch each of his last three games.
3. Robert Foster: four targets last week, zero catches. He has been dealing with leg injuries all season.
4. Johnny Holton: 13 targets with one catch on the season, seven targets came last week.
5. Nick Vannett, Lee Smith and Tyler Kroft: woo hoo, backup tight ends!
6. Patrick DiMarco: consider watching a Hallmark Holiday movie with your family.

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Good Luck in tonight’s Showdown Slate NFL DFS Gamers! ~ EMac