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NFL DFS Showdown Spotlight: Week 15 Saturday Night Football DraftKings & FanDuel | Patriots at Colts

Eric MacPherson

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For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, this column will provide free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks for today. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 15 Saturday Night Football slate featuring the Indianapolis Colts hosting the New England Patriots.

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NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Week 15 Saturday Night Football

New England fans have been worried about rookie Mac Jones (thumb) but all signs are pointing to him starting. Unfortunately running back Damien Harris (hamstring) is out along with offensive lineman Yodny Cajuste (illness) otherwise the Patriots are healthy coming out of their bye week. Indianapolis also had a Week 14 bye and aside from some of their defensive depth, they are also looking healthy.

New England Patriots: 21.25 Points

Quarterback

Rookie Mac Jones has seen marked improvement throughout the season though he is facing a solid defense tonight. Indianapolis has the fifth-ranked rushing DVOA while it is 17th against the pass. Though they had allowed five aerial scores in the final two games heading into their bye week, the Colts have held opposing signal-callers to one or fewer touchdowns six times and only Jimmy Garoppolo (326) has topped 287 passing yards. Coach Bill Belichick will likely focus on short passes while allowing the running game and the defense to carry the load.

Running Back

Damien Harris (hamstring) is out, which means rookie Rhamondre Stevenson will be the lead running back. Brandon Bolden (knee) is questionable though expected to play. J.J. Taylor is on the COVID reserve and of course James White has been on the injured reserve since October. Stevenson is capable in all facets of the game, though it is likely that Bolden will be in on the passing downs. Keep an eye on the transactions leading up to kickoff as the Patriots as they could activate Devine Ozigbo from the practice squad or some other create a player.

With such a heavy workload, Stevenson is in a prime spot to convert his extra opportunities into production on the field, and gamers can take advantage of all of that usage in the NFL player prop betting market. Stevenson’s over/unders have some great expected win rates and ROI on OddsShopper. Be sure to utilize those free projections before making NFL player prop bets tonight.

Wide Receiver

Jakobi Meyers has nearly twice as many targets as any other player on the Patriots. However, that is not overly impressive considering he has yet to reach 100 yards, has only one touchdown and in his last nine games failed to surpass five receptions. Kendrick Bourne is actually carrying the highest salary of any New England wideout on both DraftKings and FanDuel. This is mostly on the strength of three touchdowns in his last three games, excluding the Week 13 matchup against Buffalo where the Patriots attempted a scant three passes. Nelson Agholor rounds things out, though since the season opener he has tallied double digit fantasy points only twice.

 
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Tight End

In the last six games, the tight end position has seen more than five combined targets only once. On the season, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith each have exceeded 50 yards once while the former has had the touchdown magic with seven compared to one from the latter.

Defense/Special Teams

Over there last four games, New England has 13 sacks, six interceptions and four fumble recoveries. Surprisingly Indianapolis has ceded the fourth fewest sacks this year at 1.7 per game and they do a good job protecting the ball with just 1.3 turnovers per tilt.

Indianapolis Colts: 23.75 Points

Quarterback

Carson Wentz will have his work cut out for him tonight going against the Patriots who boast top five DVOAs against the pass and rush. Only four opposing signal-callers have had multiple touchdown passes against New England and only three have thrown for more than 230 yards. Wentz has surpassed 180 yards only once in the last four games with Indianapolis preferring to focus on the run. However, he has averaged 1.9 passing touchdowns over his last ten games.

Running Back

Jonathan Taylor leads the league in rushing and only Derrick Henry (117.1) has averaged more than Taylor’s 103.7 yards per game. The second-year back also leads the league with 18 combined touchdowns. The upside is that he also has been quite active in the passing game with only four fewer targets than Nyheim Hines. Hines is a lottery ticket as he has more than 35 rushing yards once this season and he has averaged just two receptions over the last ten games. Deon Jackson is the only other running back to see the field over the last half dozen games and he has 15 total snaps.

Wide Receiver

Michael Pittman Jr. has become the clear top receiving option and he would have achieved that status even with a fully healthy T.Y. Hilton. Zach Pascal is usually good for a handful of targets each game while the rest of the wideouts have four combined targets in the last month. Pittman has a reasonable salary on both sites, though he is also likely to draw the most attention from the New England pass coverage.

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Tight End

Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox are fine as punt options as both should see a couple targets. Doyle has the edge over the last four games with 18 while Alie-Cox has six and Kylen Granson has seven.

Defense/Special Teams

Over its last four games, Indianapolis has tallied 10 sacks, five interceptions and four fumble recoveries. We know that New England does not make many mistakes, even with a rookie under center and they do a good job of limiting sacks as well.


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Saturday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those taking the MME approach, remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.

Week 15 Saturday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks

  1. Jonathan Taylor: The field will have the same assessment as well.
  2. Rhamondre Stevenson: It will be interesting to see how coach Bill Belichick trolls the fantasy community with his running back usage tonight.
  3. Carson Wentz: Should be as healthy as he has been all season after the bye week.
  4. Mac Jones: It would be funny to see the rookie with his first rushing touchdown tonight in a vulture move against Stevenson.
  5. Michael Pittman Jr.: Solid core option, though going in other directions will provide tournament leverage.
  6. Brandon Bolden: Gimme on DraftKings at $1,800, would lead the next section on FanDuel at $7,500 with the half-PPR scoring format.
  7. Nick Folk: While he is just 5 for 8 from beyond 50 yards, he is at 91.7% for the season and this game is indoors.
  8. Michael Badgley: The Money Badger has made 11 of 12 field goals and all 32 extra points since joining the Colts, however, he is 3 for 9 in his career from over 50 yards.
  9. New England D/ST: Decent salary and they are projecting to be on only 15% of all rosters.
  10. Devine Ozigbo: Unlocks everything at the DraftKings $200 minimum salary.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks

  1. Zach Pascal: Forget the lack of name recognition.
  2. Jakobi Meyers: Live for his second career touchdown tonight.
  3. Jack Doyle: Seems to be the lead tight end, but it is tenuous at best with 2.97 projected targets.
  4. Indianapolis D/ST: Underrated unit and at home with two weeks to prepare for various Belichick wrinkles.
  5. Kendrick Bourne and Nelson Agholor: All New England receivers have capped volume.

Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks

  1. T.Y. Hilton: Do not be mesmerized by the name recognition.
  2. Nyheim Hines: Sees just 20% of the snaps and even less of the overall touches for the position. Does return punts.
  3. Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith: Playing for a touchdown.
  4. Kylen Granson and Mo Alie-Cox: Over/under is 3.5 combined targets per Awesemo projections.
  5. N’Keal Harry: Does just enough to warrant his own line.
  6. Garrett Gilbert and Brian Hoyer: Backup options if Jones aggravates thumb issue, likely only one will be active.
  7. Dezmon Patmon, Deon Jackson, Ashton Dulin, Jakob Johnson, Gunner Olszewski: Best reserved for the 150-lineup crowd.

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We also have single-game projections and NFL single-game ownership projections. View our FanDuel DFS NFL rankings and our DraftKings DFS NFL rankings. If you’re interested in other NFL football DFS for multiple game slates, head over to NFL DFS ownership projections, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, daily fantasy football rankings, and NFL stacks. Take a look at our NFL inactives, NFL lineups and NFL depth charts.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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