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NFL DFS Strategy: Saturday Divisional Round Tournament Breakdown

Kyle Dvorchak



NFL betting picks for Divisional Round Playoffs Packers Chiefs Bills Rams Ravens Saints Buccaneers Browns Davante Adams

DraftKings and FanDuel both joined the Saturday and Sunday slates into one main slate, but they still have action on both individual days as well. We’ll be looking at the tournament strategy for both slates, starting with NFL DFS Picks for daily fantasy football lineups on Saturday. Let’s get to it.

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Daily Fantasy Football Picks: Saturday Tournament Strategy

NFL DFS Picks: Quarterback

The two favored quarterbacks likely come in as the popular options on the Saturday slate. Aaron Rodgers and Josh Allen both play for teams with 26.25 implied team totals. Both players are top five in touchdowns passing and top 10 in yards. However, Rodgers is playing in a game with a 45.5-point total. His median projection deserves to look similar to Allen’s, but the ceiling is likely lower. Rodgers isn’t projected to be in a game that could see both teams scoring back and forth with reckless abandon. Allen’s opponent has a 23.75 total, making the spread just 2.5 points.

On the other side of the Bills game, Lamar Jackson is coming off his 10th 100-yard rushing game. Two of those 10 games have been playoff performances. Since returning from the reserve/COVID-19 list, Jackson is averaging 12 carries for 94.3 yards and 0.8 scores per game. His price is prohibitive to getting other studs in your roster, but that will also keep his ownership low despite having a sky-high ceiling on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

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Daily Fantasy Football Picks: Running Back

Cam Akers is the obvious play on the Saturday-only slate. Akers has averaged 22.8 carries for 94.2 yards and 0.4 touchdowns over his previous six games and will be relied upon in all facets of the game, making him resistant to poor game script. However, his team is a touchdown underdog on the road. Fading him as a bet against the Rams offense as a whole seems viable. In Week 17, Aaron Jones saw 64.7% of the Packers’ running back carries. Most importantly, he also drew all five of the Packers’ running back targets. This was despite him coming off a game where the Packers pulled him for health reasons and let A.J. Dillon run wild in Week 16. Jones’ role as the carry and target leader out of the backfield remains unchanged, and his team is the biggest favorite of the week.

With Zack Moss out, Devin Singletary projects to see most of the backfield work for Buffalo. The Bills are slight favorites, and the running back position is incredibly weak on Saturday. Opting for the ceiling of Singletary keeping his role and taking on Moss’s role is a worthwhile bet at $4,500.

J.K. Dobbins is overpriced at $6,000 and doesn’t offer direct leverage of a popular quarterback on his own. The only reason to get to him is in combination with the Baltimore defense to negatively correlate with Allen lineups or with Jackson simply as a way to build a unique roster.

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NFL DFS Picks: Wide Receiver

Maybe Davante Adams will see lowered ownership because of the Jalen Ramsey treatment, but that seems like wishful thinking. Still, Adams has more games with multiple receiving touchdowns than games with no receiving touchdowns. He also has six 100-yard games across 10 Packers wins that he has been healthy for. Stefon Diggs falls in the same category where his ownership feels like a necessary evil and not an outright barrier. Diggs led the league in receptions, targets and yards receiving in the regular season. The only reason to fade Diggs is his lack of touchdown equity. He scored eight times in the regular season. Gabriel Davis scored seven times, Isaiah McKenzie found pay dirt five times and 13 total players scored at least once for Buffalo. It’s possible that Cole Beasley, who saw seven targets last week and has five games over 100 yards, could easily score twice and render Diggs obsolete for one week. 

Allen Lazard is projected to be popular on the main slate, so we can assume he’ll be the chalkiest cheap option on the DraftKings and FanDuel Saturday slate by a considerable margin. He has one game above 63 yards receiving and two games over four receptions this season. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has four games over 80 yards and an aDOT over 20 on the year.

The Rams look like the team to fade on this slate, but their receivers are still worth looking at. Robert Woods ran three more routes than Cooper Kupp last week, but Kupp also missed a few plays at the end of the game with a knee injury. Assuming he is healthy, Kupp saw nine targets to Woods’ eight and had a higher aDOT. At $5,300 ($600 cheaper than Woods), Kupp makes more sense as the runback a Packers stack or single Green Bay players.

Daily Fantasy Football Picks: Tight End

Tight end is a tragic position for the Saturday slate. Mark Andrews is going to be the high-price chalk and makes sense as a stacking option with Jackson. However, for lowered ownership and a reduced cost, Robert Tonyan is only posting 0.1 fewer DraftKings points per game. Over his past six games, Dawson Knox has averaged 8.7 points per game and is nearly $2,000 less than Andrews. Marquise Brown, who is averaging the same amount of targets (6.8) as Andrews since Week 14 (at a higher aDOT), is a good leverage play off Brown.

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If you like fantasy football and care about data, there's a 50/50 chance I've written for your favorite site. In a few short years I've covered, season-long, dynasty, best ball, and DFS for football. I used to be watching games and pretend to know what I was talking about but now I just spew numbers that forecast outcomes better than any scout. Come for the numbers, stay for the bad jokes and Zach Zenner references. RIP XFL.

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