For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, this column will provide free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks for today. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 14 Sunday Night Football slate featuring the Chicago Bears at the Green Bay Packers.
NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Week 14 Sunday Night Football
Marquise Goodwin is likely to miss another week with a foot injury while veteran quarterback Andy Dalton is doubtful with a hand issue. For Green Bay, the only skill position player missing is Randall Cobb underwent surgery for a core muscle injury and with a 6-8 week recovery period he may be done for the season.
Rookie Justin Fields is going to be back under center after last having seen action in Week 11 when he suffered a rib injury. Coach Matt Nagy has been hesitant to utilize the rushing talent of his first rounder and now that he is dealing with an injury in yet another lost Bears campaign it is unlikely he gets many, if any designed rushing plays tonight. In his eight starts, Fields has topped 200 aerial yards twice with 209 against Detroit in Week 4 and 291 at Pittsburgh in Week 9. For perspective, the Awesemo projections have Fields with the lowest passing yards on the week at 197.5 along with five carries for 21.3 rushing yards. Green Bay has a top ten pass DVOA which is going to make this an uphill battle for the youngster.
Fortunately David Montgomery has a favorable matchup against the Packers 27th rush DVOA this week and he is also active in the passing game. Since the Week 10 bye, Montgomery has 52 carries while rookie Khalil Herbert has the other nine that have gone to the running backs. IN this same stretch Montgomery has 13 targets while Herbert has one. No other Chicago running back has an offensive snap in this timeframe. Ryan Nall saw two snaps back in Week 9 while Damien Williams last saw the field with four snaps in Week 8.
With such a heavy workload, Montgomery is in a prime spot to continue his backfield dominance, and you can take advantage of all of that usage in the NFL player prop betting market. Montgomery’s over/unders have some great expected win rates and ROI on the Awesemo OddsShopper tool. Be sure to utilize those free projections before making your favorite NFL player prop bets tonight.
Darnell Mooney seems to be the primary option for the Bears passing game with Allen Robinson having dealt with a myriad of injuries this season. DraftKings is giving Mooney a $2,400 premium while on FanDuel he is only $1,000 more than Robinson. Marquise Goodwin is unlikely to play, though with Fields having thrown more that 27 passes only twice in eight starts it is hard to be overly excited about any of the wideouts who will see an increase in snaps and routes. Jakeem Grant and Damiere Byrd are those beneficiaries, though it needs to be noted that Awesemo has each of these pass-catchers projected for approximately two targets.
Chicago loves to have four tight ends active for most games. J.P. Holtz usually sees only a handful of snaps on offense. Jimmy Graham of course is always lurking for a red zone look and he has scored each of the last two weeks with three receptions for 35 yards and a pair of touchdowns on a trio of targets. Over the last month veteran Jesse James has played around a third of the snaps each week with one total target to show for his efforts. Saving the “best” for last, Cole Kmet is a viable option who should be on the field for approximately 80-85% of the plays and he has 64 of the 86 targets allocated to this position. When Fields has been under center, Kmet has typically been around half a dozen targets and he is at a favorable salary on both sites for this level of opportunities.
Chicago has been channeling the Monsters of the Midway defense and they are third in the league with 33 sacks, though they average only one takeaway per game. Green Bay has the fewest turnovers in the league with just under one per matchup and they are allowing 1.8 sacks per game behind one of the better offensive lines in the league.
Aaron Rodgers is dealing with a toe injury, though he has decided to play through it rather than get minor surgery. This year in his 11 starts, Rodgers has been stellar with 24 touchdowns against only three interceptions along with 261.6 passing yards per game. While he is still mobile in the pocket and carries the threat of rushing for a first down if the defense loses track of him, there is no rushing upside to count on. For those wondering and remembering Rodgers rushing for touchdowns, he has three on the season with 24 carries and 76 yards.
Check out where Rodgers is stacking up with the other options as the Captain/MVP/Superstar play in our DraftKings NFL cheat sheet, FanDuel NFL cheat sheet and Yahoo NFL cheat sheet tonight. Check them out for all of our free NFL DFS showdown picks tonight.
Aaron Jones suffered a sprained knee in Week 10 against Seattle, though he only missed one game. Last week he had ten carries and a target while A.J. Dillon led the way with 20 carries and five targets. It is likely the opportunities are more evenly split as Jones continues to recover. Dillon of course should see ample work if the game proceeds as the double digit point spread indicates. On DraftKings, Dillon is one of the best plays at a ridiculous $4,400. FanDuel has made things a little interesting with Dillon at $10,000 and Jones at $11,000.
Davante Adams is third in the league with 98.5 receiving yards per game, sixth with 115 targets and eighth with 80 receptions. Though he is not finding the end zone with the same absurd frequency as last year, he does have five scores and is a primary red zone option. Awesemo is projecting a 31% target share for him in this marquee matchup.
Allen Lazard will likely take over for the injured Randall Cobb and he was already seeing a decent target share when Cobb was healthy. Marquez Valdes-Scantling has a whopping 19 targets in the last two games though a lot of those are downfield efforts leading to a lower catch rate, but bringing the fantasy goodness when they connect. In this stretch he has eight receptions for 173 yards and a score. Equanimeous St. Brown has a pair of targets in each of the last two games. It is important to remember that the Packers will be happy to turn to the run if they are up in this game.
Since Robert Tonyan was lost for the season with a torn ACL, Josiah Deguara has led the position with 11 targets in the subsequent four games. Marcedes Lewis has six targets, Dominique Dafney has two and Tyler Davis has one. Deguara is an excellent option on FanDuel at $6,000 and he is still in the mix at a favorable $2,600 on DraftKings.
Chicago has allowed 40 sacks this season which is the second most in the league and an indictment of just how poor their offensive line has performed this year. Green Bay is in the middle of the leaderboard averaging 2.3 sacks per game. The Bears are allowing about 1.5 turnovers which is in line with the Packers takeaway rate.
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Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those taking the MME approach, remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.
Week 14 Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings
Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Davante Adams: Likely will need to bank production early, but still best option on both sites.
- David Montgomery: Workload has Monty surging up the rankings.
- A.J. Dillon: Biggest beneficiary if Packers get a multi-score lead.
- Darnell Mooney: Somehow he has become the Bears featured wideout.
- Aaron Rodgers: Not much via the ground, but still could have a multiple touchdowns and 200ish yards even in a lopsided event.
- Justin Fields: Rib injury is concerning, no need to put him at risk with designed runs which curbs his fantasy appeal.
- Josiah Deguara: Fresh name, low salary keeping the popularity low makes him a fine option with only a handful of targets.
- Aaron Jones: No need to push him if the game is out of hand, could still get a couple early scores – or be relegated to single digit fantasy production.
- Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Go big or go home with Mr. Boom-Bust himself.
- Green Bay D/ST: DraftKings salary algorithm has assigned a premium.
Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Cole Kmet: Quietly productive with either quarterback.
- Allen Lazard: Should see a handful of targets, could luck into a score.
- Allen Robinson: Still has not surpassed 11 fantasy points, even in full-PPR scoring formats this season.
- Mason Crosby: Cold but not windy and no precipitation tonight, 7 of 8 from beyond 50 yards in his last 28 games.
- Cairo Santos: Only 19 field goal attempts, missed both from 50 plus and one from 40 plus.
Lottery Ticket NFL DFS Showdown Picks
- Chicago D/ST: Rodgers does not make many mistakes, but a splash play could put this unit in the mix.
- Khalil Herbert: Needs an in-game injury to Montgomery to have value outside of a lucky touchdown.
- Amari Rodgers, Marcedes Lewis and Equanimeous St. Brown: At least they have a competent passer.
- Damiere Byrd, Jakeem Grant: Over under is 4.5 combined targets. Grant is primary returner with Byrd backing him up.
- Jesse James, Jimmy Graham and J.P. Holtz: More than three combined targets would be a surprise.
- Dominique Dafney, Tyler Davis, Malik Taylor: Best left for the 150-lineup crowd.
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We also have NFL DFS single-game projections and NFL DFS showdown ownership projections. View our DraftKings NFL DFS ownership rankings and our FanDuel NFL DFS ownership rankings. Take a look at our inactive player list, starting line-ups and NFL depth chart list. If you’re interested in other NFL DFS advice for multiple game slates, head over to NFL DFS projected ownership, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, DFS NFL rankings, and NFL DFS stacking.
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