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NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Best Divisional Round Sunday Night Football DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Advice

Eric MacPherson

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Awesemo's Divisional Round NFL DFS Showdown Picks for Chiefs vs. Bills | DraftKings & FanDuel NFL Lineups, optimizers picks & projections today

For each of the featured playoff games, this column will provide free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules, player rankings, comments and NFL DFS picks for today. There are loads of information and NFL DFS Showdown picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Divisional Round Sunday Night Football slate featuring the Kansas City Chiefs hosting the Buffalo Bills.

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NFL DFS Picks Divisional Round Sunday Night Football

Between the two teams only running back Darrel Williams (toe) and cornerback Rashad Fenton (back) are listed as questionable on the injury report.

Buffalo Bills: 26.25 Points

Quarterback

When these teams met back in early October, Buffalo recorded a comfortable 38-20 victory in Arrowhead Stadium. In NFL time, that is a million years ago, so there is not much we can truly infer from that game. Josh Allen had a second straight season where he was a fringe MVP candidate with his rushing and passing skills on par with nearly every other quarterback in the league. Though he had just six touchdowns on the ground which was a career low, between the 20s he racked up a career high 763 rushing yards on 122 carries. In this win or go home game, Allen will have free reign to run in the red zone which makes him nearly unstoppable.

Running Back

Devin Singletary has managed to consolidate the running back workload in Buffalo. Since Week 14 through Super Wild Card Weekend, the other running backs combined for just 18 carries and seven targets. In this stretch Singletary averaged nearly 100 combined yards per game with seven rushing touchdowns and one receiving score. Kansas City has struggled against the run all season and Singletary is at a favorable salary across the various DFS sites.

Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs had just four targets last weekend, but he is still a gamebreaker who can score from anywhere on the field. Emmanuel Sanders returned after missing a couple weeks which provided yet another capable option for Allen, though his presence certainly diluted the opportunities for Cole Beasley and Gabriel Davis. Somehow Isaiah McKenzie remained in the mix and he even had three carries for 29 yards. The touchdown equity is high for all of these players with opposing defenses stretched to the breaking point while trying to account for everyone, but it also makes it difficult to “trust” any one option for fantasy purposes. Tonight the strategy will be to just mix and match these options depending on your personal preference and fit for your desired lineup construction.

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Tight End

Since returning from injury in Week 10, Dawson Knox has 49 of the 51 tight end targets. Last weekend, he led the team catching all five of his targets for 89 yards and a pair of touchdowns. This year he has three different games with multiple touchdowns yet gamers still do not view him as an elite tight end option. Though he is still a tick behind Kittle, Kelce, Gronkowski and Andrews, the gap is narrowing each week.

Defense/Special Teams

Buffalo has an elite defense, however, they are facing one of the most dynamic offenses in the game. Yesterday we were reminded once again that anything can happen and of course return touchdowns are fickle, but a dominant defensive performance can carry the day in single game contests.s

Kansas City Chiefs: 28.75 Points

Quarterback

Over his last six games, Patrick Mahomes has righted the ship with a pair of 400 yard performances and multiple touchdowns in each appearance. This will not be an easy matchup by any stretch of the imagination with Buffalo allowing only Tom Brady (363) to surpass the 300 yard milestone this year. Mahomes did log 272 aerial yards against the Bills in Week 5 which was the second best total of the season. Only four quarterbacks, including Brady and Mahomes, managed more than one passing touchdown against the top ranked passing defense this year.

Running Back

Jerick McKinnon stole the show last weekend with Darrel Williams toe issue being more debilitating than what was detailed on the injury report. Now Clyde Edwards-Helaire is expected to return after missing a month. There is no way of knowing what to expect here and it will likely be a split workload with Derrick Gore potentially working his way into the picture. Whomever lucks into a touchdown will likely be in the optimal lineup, though good luck getting that one correct. Additionally, Kansas City likes to work in their receivers on jet sweeps and we have seen them also run various iterations of the wildcat offense over the last few seasons to keep opposing defenses off balance.

Wide Receiver

Tyreek Hill looked spry with a backflip celebration after scoring a touchdown last week, so it seem that the heel injury which limited him in the prior game is no longer an issue. Demarcus Robinson actually led the team with 76 receiving yards which was somewhat of a surprise. Though Week 15 he had 18 receptions, though over the last four games he has 11 and looks to be doing more than just running wind sprints.

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Mecole Hardman and Byron Pringle each had solid games with Hardman also getting two carries while Pringle had caught two touchdowns. This receiver group has a similar outlook to Buffalo, which makes deciphering any future results difficult.

Tight End

Travis Kelce has scored in four straight games and it seems reports of his demise were greatly overstated by the fantasy community. Again it is important to point out that for some reason DFS gamers are loathe to use tight ends unless they are a requirement. Kelce rarely lines up as a tight end doing most of his work from the slot or split out wide. Most receivers would kill for his production and he continues to be overlooked in the single game formats. Blake Bell had five receptions through the first 14 games of the season and other five in the last four weeks. Noah Gray has three receptions in the last four games after recording just three in all the prior games. Though their aDOT is miniscule, it does seem that Mahomes is willing to go with dump-off passes more frequently of late.

Defense/Special Teams

Kansas city does not get a lot of pressure on opposing signal-callers and most of their fantasy points this season have come courtesy of touchdown returns.


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Divisional Round Sunday Night Football Single-Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those taking the MME approach, remember that correlation is key. This means matching a receiver or two with a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their quarterback.

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Divisional Round Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings

Top 10 NFL DFS Showdown Picks

  1. Devin Singletary: The salary and popularity discounts compared to the household names land him the top honor.
  2. Josh Allen: Gets it done through the air and on the ground.
  3. Patrick Mahomes: Mahomies Unite!
  4. Dawson Knox: Live for a touchdown and we need the salary savings.
  5. Tyreek Hill: Can score from anywhere on the field and seems back to full health. May return punts since this is a big game.
  6. Travis Kelce: Five touchdowns in his last four games.
  7. Isaiah McKenzie: DraftKings only, but at $3,000 he opens things up. Also returns punts and kickoffs.
  8. Harrison Butker: Elite option, two of his three misses have been from beyond 50 yards – 50 of 56 over the last two seasons.
  9. Stefon Diggs: Hard to trust the volume and his salary needs 100 yards and a touchdown just to break even.
  10. Tyler Bass: Two of his four misses have been from beyond 50 yards, not as safe as Butker, but the overall savings is key.

Secondary NFL DFS Showdown Picks

  1. Byron Pringle, Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson: Pringle also returns kickoffs, Hardman may share punt return duty with Hill and Robinson is cheap with his opportunities trending in the right direction.
  2. Emmanuel Sanders: Back in the mix and at a decent salary.
  3. Gabriel Davis: More dynamic than Sanders, but gets crowded out by the veteran.
  4. Cole Beasley: Falling out of favor with everyone healthy and Knox taking some of his targets. Even in full-PPR scoring he has double digit fantasy points only once in the last nine games.
  5. Jerick McKinnon, Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Darrel Williams: Not worth the headache unless building a couple dozen lineups.

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  1. Buffalo D/ST: Return touchdowns are everything and they are due! Okay, that is slightly hyperbolic, but even this elite unit has just one outing with more than eight fantasy points in their last seven games.
  2. Kansas City D/ST: Homefield advantage and a better chance of outscoring the remaining options in this section, even factoring in points allowed.
  3. Zach Moss: Remember him?
  4. Blake Bell and Noah Gray: over/under is 1.5 combined targets.
  5. Reggie Gilliam, Michael Burton, Marcus Kemp, Jake Kumerow and Daurice Fountain: If they beat us, so be it.

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We also have NFL single-game projections and NFL DFS single-game ownership projections. If you’re interested in other DFS NFL tools for multiple game slates, head over to NFL DFS ownership projections, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, NFL DFS rankings, and NFL DFS stacking. View our FanDuel DFS NFL ownership rankings and our DraftKings NFL ownership rankings. Take a look at our starting lineups, inactives and depth charts for NFL games.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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