The Conference Championship is here. It’s almost all over. But we have two weeks left to soak in all the NFL daily fantasy action. Part of success in NFL DFS is knowing how likely a stack is going to be the highest-scoring one on the slate and how much ownership that stack is going to get. Then you know if it’s a good play or not. Fortunately, our own Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker has created a Top Stacks Tool to help you with just that. He releases it every Sunday morning before lock for all your DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft needs, and you can gain access to it by signing up HERE.
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Don’t forget to check out this week’s On the Contrary! Pete Overzet joins Chris Spags and Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker to discuss some Conference Championship contrarian picks!
NFL DFS Top Stacks
NFL DFS Picks: Top Stack AND Top Value Stack: Kansas City Chiefs
It feels like we’ve been on the Chiefs for ages now, but really it was just last week against the Texans. With a slate-high 30.25 implied total, Awesemo gives a Mahomes-led Chiefs stack a whopping 54% chance of coming out on top this Sunday, compared with just 40% ownership for Patrick Mahomes. They also lead in the value metric, almost triple the score of the second place Tennessee Titans.
We all know what the most commonly owned Chiefs stacks are going to look like, so don’t be afraid to experiment on a two-game slate. Try some Mahomes combos with three receivers or adding in someone like DeMarcus Robinson, who will get no ownership but has run a respectable 36 routes over the past two weeks and was third on the team with a 56% snap count last week. With both the 49ers and Titans stacks going over-owned this week compared to their relative chances at finishing on top, get overweight on the Chiefs in your NFL DFS lineups to gain leverage on your opponents.
NFL DFS Picks: Contrarian Stack: Green Bay Packers
The Packers aren’t a great value this week, which is partly why Aaron Rodgers ownership is getting pushed down into single digits. And though they’re implied for a slate-low 19.5 points, they’re still a plus e/v bet to come out on top, relative to ownership. The good news is that Allen Lazard no longer carries an injury designation heading into Sunday. Before he left last week’s game against the Seahawks, he’d solidified is role as the WR2 in the Packers offense. Jimmy Graham is third on the pecking order, but I just don’t see how you get there with George Kittle and Travis Kelce on this slate.
Low-Owned GPP Fliers
As these slates whittle down towards the end of the season, you have to get a bit creative in spots to gain some differentiation in your lineups. The easiest way to do this is build lineups with your defense facing a few of your offensive players. Or you can sprinkle in a few lower-owned, high upside plays that might give your chalkier builds the edge they need (Tevin Coleman last week). If you’re a premium member, check out the expert spreadsheet for out content creators’ favorite low-owned picks for GPPs.
- Adam Humphries returns this week after missing the past seven games with an ankle injury. The ownership is low right now, but that might just be a product of his questionable status throughout the week. He’ll likely return to usual slot duties.
- Mecole Hardman hasn’t been overly involved in the passing attack of late, running fourth on the depth chart. But with his speed and his role on special teams, all you need is one big play for him to hit value.
- Matt Breida might be on the wrong side of the touches these days, but so was Tevin Coleman before last week’s 20-carry, two-touchdown performance. The 49ers’ current third-stringer still got eight carries last week, which isn’t bad considering the price tag and ownership. Who knows which back is going to get the rock in the San Francisco offense – one guy gets hot and maybe they run with him.
-Good luck NFL DFS Gamers