The Slant And Go with Chris Spags: Lamar Jackson and Must Have NFL DFS Picks For Week 1

It’s FINALLY time for the opening of the NFL season and, of course, that means it’s time for some Week 1 NFL Fantasy and NFL DFS picks here in the return of the Slant and Go. We’ve had the long-form Matchups column from Adam Pfeifer to take you inside the weeds  and now I’m here to help lay out all of the players I find viable (as well as the ones I don’t) in each game with a skew towards NFL DFS. But if you’re a season-long player or re-draft league guy or gal, you should also find some useful tidbits in here for the players I’m most interested in and the reasons why. So let’s not waste any more time and get right to it with Lamar Jackson and the rest of the NFL DFS picks you should consider in Week 1!

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Baltimore Ravens (22.8 implied points) at Miami Dolphins (15.8 implied points)

Top BAL NFL DFS picks

  • Lamar Jackson is a tantalizing play given the Ravens’ penchant for ball dominance (a 32:27 Time of Possession in 2018 despite a top three pace 26.9 seconds per play) and his rushing floor plus the likelihood for passing game improvement.
  • Mark Andrews is a potential stack target but naked Lamar seems fine to me as a top raw point and value play.
  • Mark Ingram could be interesting with not much ownership but Justice Hill and Gus Edwards lurk not far behind with a real shot at stealing carries.
  • And the Baltimore defense is a pay-up option that seems worth some exposure given how elite they were last year with just 293 YPG allowed. Ryan Fitzpatrick was a 2018 turnover machine with a 4.9% INT rate and the MIA offensive line was exceedingly low graded last year but only got worse with their offseason moves.

Top MIA NFL DFS picks

  • Even though Ryan Fitzpatrick can be a disaster, he could be a leverage play on a BAL defense that will be highly owned with the low Vegas total for MIA. He’s VERY likely to bust but there’s a world where he booms.
  • Albert Wilson and his shockingly high 3 yards per route last year, tops among all WRs, is a compelling pairing with Fitzpatrick in a small amount of lineups.
  • DeVante Parker has historically been more of the deep yards receiver with 12.7 air yards per target and Kenny Stills out of the picture could offer up more opportunity for him and Wilson separately or perhaps both.

Washington Redskins (17.8 implied points) at Philadelphia Eagles (27.7 implied points)

Top WAS NFL DFS picks

  • I am not a Jordan Reed believer coming off yet another concussion and the run game seems likely to be a timeshare to some degree with Adrian Peterson and Derrius Guice. Hard pass on all pieces here.

Top PHI NFL DFS picks

  • Carson Wentz is back and a compelling play at a reasonable price point with not much ownership expected industrywide. WAS was a relatively decent coverage team with an 80.8 coverage grade from PFF and kept the ball in front of them with 6.8 air yards per target so the Wentz ownership seems worth matching and perhaps not exceeding wildly.
  • Miles Sanders will have some ownership but I’m less inclined for highly unproven workloads for backs, particularly with Jordan Howard now in tow and Chris Clement still lurking.
  • Zach Ertz likely deserves at least his ~10% projected ownership with chalky tight ends with less proven ability out there but WAS defended the TE well last year according to FootballOutsiders  with a 17.4% decrease in production at the position.
  • Alshon Jeffery is the WR I’d want the most but it’s hard to totally write off an affordable DeSean Jackson given his deep play upside and the obvious narratives of his return to PHI with a big-armed QB in a game against another former team of his. I have concerns about a bit of a target logjam with these guys, Nelson Agholor and Ertz but it wouldn’t be surprising to see a monster game from this gorup.

Tennessee Titans (20.3 implied points) at Cleveland Browns (25.3 implied points)

Top TEN NFL DFS picks

  • Corey Davis interests me somewhat, though Adam Humphries’ arrival could cut into his target share in a low octane TEN offense where Marcus Mariota only three 23.6 times per game. If the quality TEN defense crumbles, they could need to throw more versus a potentially high octane CLE offense.
  • CLE was a shockingly poorly graded team in run defense and tackling according to PFF and they allowed 4.7 yards per rush so it’s possible we see Derrick Henry useful at very low ownership or, even lower, Dion Lewis. An attempt to squeeze the air out of the ball, as they did last year with a slow pace and long time of possession, to decrease the onus on TEN’s defense to stop a potent CLE offense is a logical coaching choice.

Top CLE NFL DFS picks

  • Odell Beckham is one guy I would be comfortable with against a really sturdy TEN defense who has over an 85 grade from PFF in run defense, tackling, coverage, and overall defense. Odell will be highly targeted, was remarkably good with Eli Manning as his QB last year and should see a big upgrade with Baker Mayfield, and can beat any coverage.
  • Nick Chubb projects well but seems mostly viable as a pivot to better NFL DFS plays at the price like Dalvin Cook or Leonard Fournette.
  • David Njoku is a price point pivot to a chalky Hunter Henry but it’s hard to trust his already flimsy workload of 5.5 targets per game with the massive addition Odell to the offense.

Kansas City Chiefs (27.5 implied points) at Jacksonville Jaguars (24 implied points)

Top JAX NFL DFS picks

  • Leonard Fournette is SHOCKINGLY low-owned given how well he projects and it seems like that number comes up throughout the week. KC allowed 5 yards per rush last year and Fournette could see a boost in pass game work from his 3.1 targets per game in 2018 with a more competent QB in house.
  • Dede Westbrook will have some ownership and it seems like he should in a game where JAX should have to pass from behind or to have a shot at building a lead on KC if their defense shows up.
  • Nick Foles has no ownership despite a cheap price and two decently owned NFL DFS plays in Fournette and Westbrook on his side, a decent spot to target him as leverage. I discussed at length my Foles intrigue during our NFL Strategy Show with Loughy but his 72.3% completion rate and stellar numbers under pressure (a best in the league 90.6 QB rating) show some potential for growth, particularly in a game where we know he’ll need to pass.

Top KC NFL DFS picks

  • Pat Mahomes is the undisputed QB 1 for Week 1 after his stellar 2018 campaign that I think may not be as due for regression as some. Mahomes had a 134.2 QB rating in clean pockets —  better than #2 Russell Wilson’s 122.1 — and has some room for improvement under pressure and on his deep balls, two places that he still was extremely good at. The possible positive regression for the Jags defense and Mahomes’ price are the reasons not to go there but he still seems worth more trust than he has currently received.
  • There is some risk/reward to Damien Williams and new signee LeSean McCoy against a JAX defense who gave up 4.3 YPR with an 88 run defense grade from PFF last year. The potential for congestion in the backfield and a tough matchup would make this an avoid situation in Week 1.
  • Travis Kelce and his 9.3 targets per game, tops at the position last year, are always worth a flier TEs desperate for volume. With coverage likely to key in on Tyreek Hill as it did last year, I’d favor Kelce and be open to some exposure for Sammy Watkins as a pivot to the both of their ownership.

Buffalo Bills (18.8 implied points) at NY Jets (21.8 implied points)

Top BUF NFL DFS picks

  • I love Josh Allen in season-long and think he is a consideration in most matchups with his rushing upside with 7.4 attempts per game at 7.1 yards per rush. He is also a home run hitter with 5.3 attempts of 20+ yards per game, seventh most in the league, and #2 overall in air yards with 11.6 air yards per attempt. But this spot versus a Jets defense with a solid coverage group and a defense that was underrated last year according to PFF seems like a sub-optimal spot to go to him, even though his ~1% ownership is tantalizing.
  • I am not a buyer on Devin Singletary in Week 1 with this being peak Frank Gore time of year and TJ Yeldon better than people realize as a runner and pass catcher. There will be a time for Singletary this year but he screams “shiny new toy” that shouldn’t be deployed in fantasy vs a 91 graded run defense for the Jets.
  • John Brown was an elite deep ball receiver on paper whose opportunity dried up with the Ravens’ switch from Joe Flacco to Lamar Jackson last year. He would be the receiver I’d be  willing to take a shot at low ownership with uncertain volume for a now-crowded WR corps with Cole Beasley, Robert Foster, and Zay Jones, with the latter two having established real chemistry with Allen last season.

Top NYJ NFL DFS picks

  • LeVeon Bell is at a reasonable price with a seemingly certain degree of volume against a BUF run defense that allowed a solid 4.2 YPR but was worse according to PFF with a 76 run defense grade and 53.5 tackle grade. Bell seems to have a chip on his shoulder and his 10-15% ownership seems worth matching given the upside we know of him.
  • You could talk me into a limited amount of Sam Darnold stacks with either Robby Anderson or Jamison Crowder. Anderson was a legitimate GPP winner last year with his 15.7 air yards per target while Darnold frequently showed a tendency to target the slot with both Quincy Enunwa and Jermaine Kearse in a way that Crowder should immediately benefit from being a snaps leader there. Reports have been good for Darnold in camp as well as his chemistry with Crowder so even though BUF defended the pass well, there could be some upside at low  ownership.

LA Rams (26.3 implied points) at Carolina Panthers (23.8 implied points)

Top LAR NFL DFS picks

  • Jared Goff is a very interesting low owned tournament QB with a poor pass defense for CAR that allowed 7.3 YPP, a 67% completion rate, and a 6% passing TD rate. More importantly, CAR did not pressure QBs well with a 67 pass rush grade from PFF and Goff was a different QB in clean pockets with a 117.1 QB rating and 78.8% accuracy compared to a 59.8 QB rating and 63.6% accuracy when pressured.
  • To trust Todd Gurley would be a contrarian move without much ownership despite a middling CAR rush defense but still not one I’m dying for. The knee issues and Darrell Henderson’s arrival on the scene should cut into his 2018 22.4 touches per game and there are cheaper plays who should project for better volume.
  • A choice between Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, and Cooper Kupp is like choosing a favorite child and you could justify exposure to any of them. Kupp reportedly improved his athleticism amidst his knee injury recovery and had a dynamic connection with Goff with an 11% TD rate on 6.8 targets per game, Cooks is explosive downfield, and Woods is stellar at finding gaps. I’d favor Kupp despite the risk but if you roll Goff out there, I’d want a stack with at least one of each in different lineups.

Top CAR NFL DFS picks

  • I am not a Cam Newton believer with his shoulder issues now supplemented by foot/ankle issues and a really troubling lack of downfield success with just 2.9 attempts over 20 yards per game and a 52 QB rating on 37.5% accuracy. He also was horrible when pressured last year with a 48.3 QB rating in those situations. If they keep him clean he can be fine with an 82.1% accuracy and 111 QB rating in clean pockets but if his rush attempts also trickle downward, I simply don’t trust him the way others seem to.
  • Christian McCaffrey will not be as sneaky as I hoped with top ownership expected industry wide but I like him a lot in this matchup. LAR had a 50 graded run defense last year and Newton’s issues seem to trickle down positively to what McCaffrey does best. He had a steady 20.4 touches per game last year and could stand to add to his 13.7 rush attempts per game.
  • As a side dish to the Newton issues, I am not buying into a chalky Curtis Samuel who projects for sky high ownership. He had some success and should see more opportunity with the clearout at WR but this is a 1.8 yards per route guy with a 59.4% catch rate who’ll be owned more than Julio Jones. I don’t see it.

Atlanta Falcons (22 implied points) at Minnesota Vikings (26 implied points)

Top ATL NFL DFS picks

  • Matt Ryan could be very sneaky if the new ATL offense helmed by Dirk Koetter continues his success form last year. MIN’s defense is scary having allowed just 309.7 YPG with an 85 overall grade from PFF but Ryan was stellar last year with a nice 69.4% completion rate and top QB ratings on deep throws as well as in clean pockets and while pressured.
  • Julio Jones was also more stellar than people may realize last year with 35.8 routes per game and 2.9 yards per route, third in the league behind significantly lower volume guys like Dontrell Hilliard and Albert Wilson. 10.6 targets per game can make anything possible even in a tough defensive matchup on paper.
  • Devonta Freeman has to be a bit interesting with Tevin Coleman shipped out and it not clear that Ito Smith or Brian Hill will seize much more opportunity. This is tough rushing matchup with a 90 graded run defense for MIN but matchups are overrated right?
  • Austin Hooper is a cheap TE to consider as a pivot to higher owned cheap guys. He had 5.5 targets per game and according to Football Outsiders’ DVOA, MIN allowed a 23% boost to TE production in 2018.

Top MIN NFL DFS picks

  • Another QB I am not a believer in this year is Kirk Cousins. With the addition of Gary Kubiak to a MIN staff who opted for a run heavy approach down the stretch, I find it hard to believe Cousins retains his 37.9 attempts per game from 2018 despite his effectiveness with them. This should be a run heavy team who attempts to slow things down while relying on their defense and I think Cousins only stays viable in weeks where the opposing offense blows up (which, again, is a realistic contrarian possibility…but in that case I’d rather have Matt Ryan).
  • Dalvin Cook however is a strong buy for me. He had 15.6 touches per game and now has a  rookie behind him instead of the Cookie Monsteresque Latavius Murray who gobbled up touches. Cook needs to stay healthy, a big if, but versus an ATL team who allowed 3.9 yards per rush with just 52.7 tackle grade against Cook’s elite 81.9 elusiveness grade, this could be a big  day as chalk.
  • For the same reasons as Cousins, I am not an Adam Thielen or Stefon Diggs believer this year. Both guys received a sky high 9.6 and 9.9 target per game number respectively and they can be squeezed by the trickle down effect of a run-heavy approach. If Diggs, currently questionable, were ruled out that certainly makes Thielen more of a consideration.

Indianapolis Colts (19 implied points) at LA Chargers (25.5 implied points)

Top IND NFL DFS picks

  • Jacoby Brissett is too cheap to ignore despite the low team total. I am big believer in coach Frank Reich and his ability to maximize talent’s strengths; he won’t be Andrew Luck and is in a matchup with a tough LAC defense who held opponents to 6.7 yards per pass but he’s not an insane play this week and one who could have upside in coming weeks.
  • Marlon Mack could see more work to take the onus off of Brissett against an LAC run defense  with a low 73 grade from PFF. They did allow just 4.3 yards per rush but Mack’s 16.3 attempts per game behind a solid run blocking unit could pay dividends if they attempt to dominate time of possession to avoid a dangerous LAC offense.
  • TY Hilton takes a big hit with the move to Brissett and a matchup with an LAC team who has a 91 coverage grade from PFF. His big play ability makes him viable whenever but a drop in his 1.7 targets per game over 20+ yards could be a big ding to his upside.

Top LAC NFL DFS picks

  • Philip Rivers should be able to carve up the IND defense with their “keep the ball in front of you” accuracy minded approach that allowed opposing QBs to complete 70.8% of their passes last year. At low ownership, he can be considered even though the IND defense is a solid one overall.
  • Austin Ekeler is a chalk play of the week with Melvin Gordon’s holdout ongoing and I am not  a massive believer of his. He certainly has potential with the 18.8 touches per game that Gordon leaves behind but with Justin Jackson as a higher workload back looming and an 87 graded IND run defense who allowed just 3.9 YPR, I would want to err on the lower side of his ownership.-Keenan Allen is the kind of receiver who could thrive against the IND defense’s approach.  More accurate short range targets benefit him and his 8.6 air yards per target far more than it does Mike Williams’ big play game.
  • Hunter Henry projects to be a top owned value play and I get it; he was good when he last played and IND allows a 21.2% DVOA boost to TEs. But they also had a LOT of success last year keeping TEs in to block and even though Tyrell Williams and Antonio Gates’ departures leave 6.7 targets per game up for grabs, I feel like more of those may end up in the flat to Ekeler or to Allen than they will Henry at high ownership.

Cincinnati Bengals (17 implied points) at Seattle Seahawks (27 implied points)

Top CIN NFL DFS picks

  • The effect of young new it boy coach Zac Taylor could be a game changer for the team but it’s hard to have much confidence with no AJ Green and a low team total. SEA’s defense undoubtedly got worse with some key losses but with a slow-paced, time of possession heavy SEA offense I don’t feel terribly compelled to stack these guys up.
  • Joe Mixon is a consideration with his 20 touches per game in 2018 even though CIN clearly has plans for Giovani Bernard with the extension they just gave him. Mixon is a low owned, high projected play against a SEA defense who allowed 4.9 yards per rush and if CIN can hang in this one, he could have a sneaky big day.
  • Tyler Boyd did not thrive once Green went out with injury last year with more coverage on him and he projects for one of the top ownerships at his position. His 7.7 targets per game are appealing but he’s really hard to trust even against a weakened SEA defense who did a poor job pressuring QBs with a 66 pass rush grade from PFF.

Top SEA NFL DFS picks

  • Russell Wilson was otherworldly efficient with his low 26.7 attempts per game last year and it’s possible he keeps it rolling vs a CIN defense that allowed 413.6 yards per game last year. They couldn’t tackle with a 54.8 grade from PFF and also stunk at coverage with a 70 grade so he should find success for as much as he’s allowed to throw.
  • Chris Carson feels like a safer play with 19.1 touches per game and a SEA offense who really relied on the run and emphasized ball control. CIN is a mediocre run defense with 4.7 yards per rush allowed and Carson’s price and projection balance out his lack of pass catching upside.
  • Tyler Lockett was a beast last year with an 82% catch rate with 13.6 air yards per target on just 4.2 targets per game and he stands to pick up at least some of the 5.3 targets per game that Doug Baldwin’s retirement leaves behind. He’s a good player but to me more of a curiosity to see if he’s afforded an increased role in an offense that really likes to avoid risk.
  • Will Dissly looked good before injuries knocked him out for the year with 10.1 air yards per target on 3.5 targets per game. With those Baldwin targets gone and DK Metcalf an intriguing but unknown quantity with David Moore also hurt, Dissly could be a Week 1 surprise but one  not worth much ownership due to the risk.

Detroit Lions (24.5 implied points) at Arizona Cardinals (22 implied points)

Top DET NFL DFS picks

  • With an increased pace of play expected for Arizona and a DET offense who dominated time of possession with 31:24 per game last year despite iffy offensive results, this could be a sneaky spot for Matthew Stafford and company. New offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell favored the run previously but allowed Russell Wilson more leeway than he currently has with Brian Schottenheimer so it’s possible we see Stafford cut loose more than his brutally low 7 air yards per attempt in 2018.
  • Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones are very comparable targets even with the additions of TJ Hockenson and Danny Amendola. Golladay and Jones both received just over 1.5 targets over 20 yards per game with Golladay at 7.9 targets per game and Jones at 6.9 per with equally comparable catch rates. The discount and less ownership on Jones are appealing but Golladay does seem like the safer and higher upside play.
  • Kerryon Johnson is a top projected play from a points and value perspective by Awesemo and he stands to build on his 15 touches per game, particularly if he picks up a chunk of the 5.1 targets per game that Theo Riddick’s departure leaves behind. CJ Anderson’s arrival could cut into his workload some but if Bevell pushes the run as much as expected, it’s possible we see a bellcow role for Kerryon at a really reasonable price.

Top ARI NFL DFS picks

  • Kyler Murray will not be as chalky as it may have seemed early on and that makes him a more appealing option than if he were higher owned given the risk involved. It all hinges on how quickly the ARI offense clicks and a matchup with a down pace DET offense who tackles well and clogs the interior with an 88.1 tackle grade and 90 run defense grade from PFF may not be an ideal first spot with some quality additions to their defense as well. He still seems worth a match on the ~10% exposure he projects for.
  • David Johnson will be the most popular option on this side and he should see more opportunity than the 19.3 touches per game he had last year, particularly on his 4.8 targets per game. It’s not an ideal first matchup with that strong DET run defense and his price so high but he may benefit the most from his new offense.
  • With the ownership on Johnson and a tougher than it seems matchup as well as the value at RB, I may be more interested in Christian Kirk who showed big upside with a 66 breakaway grade from PFF and 13.7 yards per catch despite that awful ARI offense last year.

San Francisco 49ers (26 implied points) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (25 implied points)

Top SF NFL DFS picks

  • Jimmy Garoppolo’s hype train has slowed down substantially but this is a really nice get-well spot after his catastrophic knee injury. Garoppolo goes against a TB defense that was awful last year and allowed a 72.5% completion rate and he should also need to score with his own poor defense and a potent TB offense on the other side.
  • George Kittle seems like the obvious target to want with 8.4 targets per game and a stellar 2.8 yards per route last year. It seems as though players will not pay up for him in Week 1 but his tremendous yards after catch ability and SF’s desire to get him into space both strike as positives in a week where value TEs will be high owned.
  • Dante Pettis and Deebo Samuel are also viable stack targets with Garoppolo but neither appeals to me as much as Kittle. It wouldn’t be shocking to see one go off alongside him but the workloads seem really fungible right now.
  • I’d favor value Matt Breida, listed as the unofficial starter on the SF depth chart, over Tevin Coleman but seeing either guy go off would not shock me in the least. Breida seems more equipped after a mostly successful year in this offense where he played well in the run and pass when healthy but Coleman has experience with Kyle Shanahan in ATL that could port over if that’s how they opt to go. A closely split backfield seems like the most likely outcome.

Top TB NFL DFS picks

  • Jameis Winston is relatively highly priced but also one of Awesemo’s best graded QBs with a likely even more effective offense under new head coach Bruce Arians. Winston was shockingly impotent on the deep ball with a 64.1 QB rating and 32.6% accuracy on throws over 20+ yards and he also was kind of bad in clean pockets with a low 71.8% accuracy and 92 QB rating but those issues may not crop up as much with a better coach against a hideous SF pass defense with a 37.5 coverage grade from PFF.
  • Chris Godwin will be a chalky play, Mike Evans will be a mildly owned play, and it’s hard to argue with either. However I wouldn’t sleep on Breshad Perriman who faces no competition for the WR3 role and showed some elite deep ball skill with Baker Mayfield last year with 2.5 yards per route and a 50% catch rate on deep balls. With no DeSean Jackson, someone should step up as a deep threat and while Godwin and Evans will have bigger and far more secure roles, Perriman strikes me as a random 1% owned guy to sneak in a few lineups as a pivot or addition.
  • Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber should get another shot at usefulness with a new coach at the helm but neither is terribly appealing at high volume in Week 1 vs SF’s one competent area of run defense. They allowed 4.1 yards per rush with a 75 run defense grade and neither Barber nor Jones lit the world on fire with both under 3.7 yards per carry last year and a poor run blocking offensive line.

NY Giants (19 implied points) at Dallas Cowboys (26.5 implied points)

Top NYG NFL DFS picks

  • Saquon Barkley will be highly owned likely every week and it’s hard to argue with his 21.9 touches per game that include 7.5 targets per. Barkley lived up to the hype and then some in 2018 and there’s no reason to think he can’t keep it going even though his price is a bit tough.
  • Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram will benefit from the lack of Odell Beckham and the currently suspended Golden Tate. DAL was solid in coverage with an 89.6 grade from PFF but NYG is likely to play from behind and give these guys some opportunities as much as Eli Manning’s noodle arm will allow.

Top DAL NFL DFS picks

  • Dak Prescott is less interesting with Ezekiel Elliott back in the lineup but new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore seems inclined to give him some more shots at usefulness. Dak was  an underrated deep ball passer with a 115.7 QB rating on throws over 20 yards and another year of growth from Michael Gallup can only help.
  • It’s hard to advocate for a fade of Ezekiel Elliott but with his just-signed deal resulting in a late return, it’s hard to trust that he gets his full 26.5 touch per game workload in Week 1. I think DAL will want to see some of Tony Pollard in the mix while they ease Zeke back in and that makes me more inclined for Saquon or McCaffrey at their comparable price tags.
  • Amari Cooper is banged up but he was clearly a motivated player down the stretch for DAL. With no defenders of note for NYG to oppress what he does, I don’t mind him but his price seems hard to trust in a game that DAL is unlikely to need a ton from the pass game.

I’ve got a ton of NFL content coming out pretty much every day so go follow me on Twitter @ChrisSpags to see it all! I’ll be back with you guys again soon so enjoy your Week 1 and good luck!

Author
Chris Spags is the senior director of editorial strategy at Awesemo.com and contributes to the site's NBA, NFL, and MLB coverage as a writer and host of video content. Chris's content background from sites like Guyism, Uproxx, and Barstool Sports allows him to bring a unique spin to the world of daily fantasy sports analysis. Chris writes regular columns with NBA and NFL analysis as well as his inimitable style and his 'Four Corners' videos for basketball, baseball, and football DFS are the primary short form content offering on Awesemo's YouTube channel. You can find him on almost any given night providing analysis right up to slate lock on Awesemo's flagship Live Before Lock livestreams or on Twitter @ChrisSpags. You can contact Chris by emailing [email protected].

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