NFL Prime Time Games: Showdown Week 2 Sunday Night Football | DraftKings + FanDuel

Greetings Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo NFL DFS Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and Draftkings Showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Sunday, Monday and Thursday nights, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all of your daily fantasy needs. We have loads to get into on this Sunday Night slate between the Seattle Seahawks and New England Patriots, with thoughts on Russell Wilson, Cam Newton and more picks for your NFL DFS lineups.

Don’t forget to check out the NFL DFS Live Before Lock Show with Greg Ehrenberg and Kyle Dvorchak at 7:30 p.m. ET. Every single-game slate we’ll have a live before lock show for you for the 2020 season.

NFL DFS Picks: New England Patriots at Seattle Seahawks (-4.0), O/U 44.5

Last week the Patriots channeled Milton Berle and showed just enough to win. Seattle will not have fans in the stadium for at least their first three home games, so keep in mind that this is not the usual raucous CenturyLink Field advantage.

New England: 20.25

Quarterback

Leave it to coach Bill Belichick to go against the grain. Offseason signee Cam Newton had 15 carries for 75 yards. The carries were the second most of his career, and the yards were the most since Week 10 of the 2010 season — funny enough that was against Miami too. For the week Newton is a fringe top-10 quarterback, and we know this is far from the glory days for the Legion of Boom. The Pats only needed to attempt 19 passes as they were content to just manhandle the Dolphins and let the clock run. We should see closer to 30 pass attempts in this game against a defense that just allowed 450 yards to Matt Ryan and the Falcons.

Running Back

Remember when we used to only have to guess how Belichick was going to use his running backs each week? Now we have a running quarterback that takes things to a whole new level. Keeping true to his inner troll, Belichick kept things very even last week, to the point of absurdity.

If you think you know how the opportunities will be distributed, guess again. In the event New England can keep the game close, they will be content to chew the clock, which helps Sony Michel. If the Seattle offense can keep a lead, then Rex Burkhead and James White benefit in the short passing game. Then we have a quarterback who is not afraid to call his own number in the red zone and whoever J.J. Taylor is (hint: he is an undrafted rookie from the University of Arizona).

AwesemoOdds Betting Trends for the Patriots vs. Seahawks

Awesemo’s sports betting expert Zach Brunner gives his thoughts on how to build your betting card for the Sunday Night Football matchup. You can also check out the available player props on OddsShopper by Awesemo.com.

Wide Receiver

A total of 13 targets went to the receivers last week, and it was consolidated with Julian Edelman and N’Keal Harry.

Outside of that duo, we are just touchdown hunting on the single game slate. Yes, New England will likely have to pass more against Seattle than they did against Miami, but we know the running backs and tight ends are also going to be in on the fun.

Tight End

Last week Ryan Izzo led the way with 63 snaps and was on the field for 98% of the plays. Devin Asiasi was the only other tight end who saw action. In his rookie season Izzo played in just four games getting nine targets for six catches, 114 yards and a touchdown. We know that Newton likes to go to this position, so the former Florida State standout is definitely in play Sunday night.

Defense/Special Teams

We know that the Patriots defense is going to be a strength again this season. Wilson is prone to sacks as he tries to keep plays alive. Last week the Falcons got him three times and that feels like a reasonable baseline for New England tonight. Keep in mind on DraftKings that negative-four fantasy points is the most you can lose for defensive points allowed.

Seattle: 24.25

Quarterback

Pete Carroll certainly let Wilson cook last week. In one of the most efficient performances of his career, Wilson was 31-for-35 for 322 yards and four scores. He added another 29 yards on three rushes. By now we all know the drill; everything Seattle does on offense will be via Wilson.

Running Back

This was much more of a committee than I expected, but the Seattle coaching staff did say the plan was to spread things out as everyone gets into “game shape” after the truncated preseason. Chris Carson brought in all six of his targets for 45 yards and two scores, but it was a little disappointing that he did not have 100 combined yards against the porous Falcons defense. While Travis Homer had just three carries, he did get two targets. Carlos Hyde did not see any action in the passing game.

The best guess is that Carson continues to be the first option with Homer spelling him in passing situations as needed. Hyde may not be the official red zone back, but Carson is not cemented in that role either and we know how Wilson likes to throw to his tight ends in those situations.

Wide Receiver

Once again we saw the dynamic duo of Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf pick up right where they left off last season. There really is no official WR1 as both of these guys can take the lead role depending on the opponent and situation. Each is going to be a threat every single game to reach 100 yards with a score.

David Moore is a contrarian option in the single-game contests, and on a fun note, he has a carry for 12 yards last week. The fourth year man is a viable WR3, it is just hard to get there on this Seattle squad with Wilson so willing to spread the ball around.

Tight End

Most gamers overlook the fact that Wilson loves to go to the tight ends. Over the last four seasons, 39 of Wilson’s 131 passing touchdowns have been caught by tight ends. That is nearly 30% and works out to 0.61 touchdowns per game to the position in that time frame. Veteran Greg Olsen was signed to be the TE1, but we know that Will Dissly was great before getting hurt last year and good enough that Seattle traded Nick Vannett in season to Pittsburgh. The snap breakdown last week was Olsen 41 for 66%, Dissly 25 for 40%, Jacob Hollister 11 for 18% and special-teamer Luke Willson with one offensive play for 2%.

Defense/Special Teams

Surprisingly Seattle rates out as a fringe top-10 D/ST this week, but we are looking at mere fractions of a point moving teams up or down half a dozen spots. The Seahawks got to the Falcons last week for just two sacks. It is hard to know the difference between Tom Brady and Newton, but neither is sack prone. We are hoping for a return touchdown here for this unit to be a difference maker.

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SNF NFL DFS Showdown + Single Game Strategy

At least we now have one week of data, but it not much to predict with any confidence.

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and also for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those of you who are taking the MME approach, remember that correlation with your lineups is key.

This means matching a receiver or two if you have a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their signal-caller.

EMac’s Single Game NFL DFS Rankings

Notable Inactives: James White is away from the team attending a personal matter:, Phillip Dorsette “revenge” is also inactive

Top 10

1. Russell Wilson: Over the last two seasons, Wilson has 70 passing touchdowns with just four interceptions. That also works out to 70 passing touchdowns versus 30 rushing touchdowns. For what it’s worth, three of those were from Wilson.
2. Cam Newton: We know he will run, and it looks like that may be heavily incorporated in the Patriots game plan as long as Newton can avoid the hits to the head. The shoulder looks better after a year-plus off, which is a bonus.
3. Chris Carson: If he can keep the fumbles to a minimum, he will be the lead back for Seattle. Hyde will spell Carson in rushing situations and Homer in passing ones.
4. James White: This is a DraftKings special, as I really like the full-PPR scoring format and price for White. On FanDuel he comes in at the bottom of this section. This will give a boost to Burkhead.
5. Jason Myers/Nick Folk: We need some salary relief, and at least we know these guys are not sharing their job like the rest of the skill position players from both teams. Knocking on wood as it is 2020 after all.
6. D.K. Metcalf: My preference for the dynamic duo is almost always going to be Metcalf. He can get it done in all situations. Lockett is great, but he tends to do better on the longer passes, and this is a tough secondary.
7. Tyler Lockett: Just because I like Metcalf more doesn’t mean I loathe Lockett.
8. N’Keal Harry: Purely a price play over Edelman, as we get a $2,800 savings on DraftKings and a $3,500 discount on FanDuel.
9. Rex Burkhead: We know Belichick likes to use his jack of all trades. He is cheap and looking like just 10-15% of the field will be on him as a Flex play.
10. Julian Edelman: If it was Brady under center he would be above Carson on this list. However, Newton is mobile, which theoretically lessens the need for short passes to be a priority.

Secondary Plays

1. David Moore: Coming in at sub-10% and at a mega discount over our next guy. Plus, he is the punt returner.
2. Greg Olsen/Will Dissly: They will be touchdown dependent, but as detailed above we know Wilson loves to go to tight ends in the red zone. I am completely comfortable going with the discounted Dissly. 
3. Sony Michel: He could get three touchdowns, or he could be played off the field if Seattle goes up big.
4. Ryan Izzo: The savings let’s us load up on the top 10. This is touchdown hunting, but we know Newton looks to them in the red zone.
5. Seattle and New England D/STs: Price savings on DraftKings, but similar to Izzo we are touchdown hunting here. At least they will be on the field for about half the snaps.

Lottery Tickets

1. Damiere Byrd: Speaking of being on the field, we know rookie Byrd should be after leading the Patriots skill position players in snaps last week. Will he get his first target this week?! He also is the main punt returner for now.
2. Carlos Hyde: I would not want to play him on the same roster as Carson. That said, it is 50/50 regarding who gets the red zone opportunities.
3. Travis Homer: He had a brief moment last year when everyone was hurt. It is not hard to envision a swing pass going for 25 yards or maybe even a touchdown. Bonus as he should be returning kickoffs.
4. Jacob Hollister/Freddie Swain: Meh.
5. Penny Hart, Devin Asiasi, Jakob Johnson, Damien Harris, DeeJay Dallas, Jakobi Meyers: At least two of these guys will be inactive. Instead of playing the others, definitely just go buy a lottery ticket.

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