Greetings, NFL DFS Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo daily fantasy football Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings Showdown slates. Much like for the regular season “primetime” games, we will be providing free analysis for the single-slate nightcap playoff action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all of your daily fantasy needs. We have loads of information and NFL DFS picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Divisional Round Saturday Night Football game between the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills.
NFL DFS Picks: Divisional Round Saturday DraftKings + FanDuel
Baltimore Ravens: 24.0
While he did not consistently produce the eye-popping fantasy numbers we saw last year in his MVP season, Lamar Jackson was ninth in the league with his second straight 1,000 campaign. For his career he is averaging six yards per carry and 63.2 rushing yards per game. Most NFL running backs would be thrilled with this output in today’s pass happy environment.
Though he threw ten fewer touchdowns than last season, Jackson’s 26 tied for the twelfth most aerial scores. While his 183.8 passing yards per game was the third-fewest among regular starters, his production on the ground was unparalleled over the full season. Buffalo has a middle of the pack defense and they have allowed 300+ passing yards and multi-touchdown games to five of their last nine opposing signal-callers.
Jackson cashed in for his first postseason ‘dub on the strength of 136 rushing yards. We can play him solo or roll him with one of his pass catchers, but I would not force it on the short slate.
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The Bills have been mediocre against opposing running backs from a fantasy perspective this year. The tough thing with Baltimore is that they like to use a running back by committee approach and their leading rusher is their quarterback. On FanDuel J.K. Dobbins is $12,500 which is somewhat insane considering he is by no means seeing an RB1 workload. On a positive note in that half-PPR scoring system he does have six straight games with 13+ fantasy points.
Gus Edwards should see around a dozen carries and a gratuitous pass target. The Awesemo.com projections have him within 1.5 points of Dobbins on FanDuel, which makes for an interesting salary cap relief decision. DraftKings he is also within 1.5 fantasy points of Dobbins and he is FIVE THOUSAND DOLLARS CHEAPER. It will be quite interesting to see where the popularity for this duo lands.
There is not a lot of love going around from a volume perspective in the Ravens passing game. During the regular season they attempted the fewest passes in the league with just 406, which was nearly 10% less that New England and 20% less than Tennessee, Cleveland and the Jets. Further discounting these options is the inconvenient fact that Jackson surpassed 200+ passing yards only three times in 15 regular season starts.
Marquise Brown has been getting by from a fantasy perspective because of his proclivity to find the end zone. In his last seven outings he has receiving touchdowns. Last week in the random track meet with the Browns he surpassed 100+ receiving yards for the first time since the season opener. After Brown, it is just a grab bag set of options with Willie Snead, Miles Boykin and Dez Bryant. Among this trio I do not have a favorite, they are just random players who may be in my lineups. I will be setting a rule to not have more than one of these three.
Over the last six games, Mark Andrews has 35 of the 39 tight end targets. This includes three that occurred during Weeks 12 and 13 when he was injured and did not play. Some will conclude that Bryant is now the de facto TE2 but he has four targets in his last three games. Andrews or bust on Saturday night.
In their last six games, Buffalo has allowed just six sacks along with six turnovers. While the Ravens have a solid defense, they were in the middle of the pack with 1.4 takeaways and 2.3 sacks per game. We need a pick-six or a scoop and score for this squad to be relevant on Saturday night.
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Buffalo Bills: 18.75
Josh Allen continues to be a threat through the air and on the ground. Though his early season MVP swell has subsided, it has not been because of recent performances. Baltimore has the 10th passing and 12th rushing DVOA, but despite some coaching gaffs, Tennessee was never really shut down last weekend.
This iteration of the Ravens seems like they are getting by on past reputation. Though they have allowed only three quarterbacks to surpass 300+ passing yards, they really have lucked out in their scheduling this year. Patrick Mahomes, Baker Mayfield and Dwayne Haskins (remember him?) were the trio that topped the milestone. The other signal-callers who have plied their trade against Baltimore this season include Ben Roethisberger x2, Ryan Tannehill x2, Philip Rivers, Deshaun Watson, Joe Burrow, Carson Wentz, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton, Daniel Jones, Gardner Minshew and Brandon Allen.
In summary, this may not be as daunting of a matchup as some gamers may believe, but it is not going to be a walk in the park. Allen provides a fair amount of rushing upside and we know he doesn’t scare easily. With nine straight multi-touchdown games, we can see the allure of the Buffalo field general.
Zack Moss is on the injured reserve with an ankle issue and T.J. Yeldon is in the COVID-19 protocol UPDATE: Yeldon will be active and serve as the backup for Singletary. That consolidates things with Devin Singletary for the first time this season. While Allen will not be afraid to tuck the ball and run, we should see Singletary approach 15 carries with a handful of targets. Undrafted rookie Antonio Williams and ten-year veteran Taiwan Jones will likely be filling in on snaps where Singletary is off the field. In his only action this season in Week 17, Williams had a dozen carries for 63 yards and two scores in the mauling of Miami.
Stefon Diggs lead the league in targets, receptions and receiving yards this season. The only knock is that we know his quarterback does not play favorites when it comes to touchdowns. Baltimore will be double-teaming and rolling coverage towards the dynamic receiver. However, this may be a moot point when considering that Diggs has had 11 games with 90+ yards including 128 last week against a solid Colts secondary.
John Brown crushed the hopes and dreams of many DFSers last week posting a bagel on four targets. We can go back to the well once again on the single game slate. Cole Beasley continues to find success in the short and mid-range while rookie Gabriel Davis is a homerun threat albeit with limited opportunities.
Though this position has been void of volume, they have cashed in with nine of Buffalo’s 39 receiving touchdowns including three of the last four weeks. Dawson Knox is the primary target for fantasy purposes, but Lee Smith and Tyler Kroft (if active) are also live for a redzone look. On the season it is Knox with three scores, Smith with two and Kroft with three despite playing in only six games.
In the Wildcard round, Tennessee got to Jackson five times. In the three games prior to that, Cincinnati, Jacksonville and the Giants had one total sack and three takeaways. Buffalo was third with 26 takeaways this season and in the middle of the pack generating just over two sacks per game.
Divisional Round Saturday Night DraftKings Showdown + FanDuel Single Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and also for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those of you who are taking the MME approach, remember that correlation with your lineups is key. This means matching a receiver or two if you have a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their signal-caller.
EMac’s Divisional Round Saturday Night Football DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Rankings
Divisional Round Saturday Night Football Top 10 NFL DFS Picks
- Josh Allen: Gets the slightest nod over Jackson.
- Lamar Jackson: Worthy of MVP/Captain consideration. Playing both on DraftKings leaves just under $5,000 each for the other three slots. On FanDuel it is a still manageable $8,833 for the final three players.
- Stefon Diggs: Gamebreaking threat but will he find the end zone?
- Devin Singletary: Consolidates all of the running back touches from the jump for the first time this season.
- Cole Beasley: Solid though not spectacular, he will be popular.
- Marquise Brown: Will need to score to validate tonight’s price point.
- Mark Andrews: Never flashy but double digit fantasy points in five of his last seven games.
- Justin Tucker/Tyler Bass: Woo Hoo, Kickers!
- John Brown: Redemption time after last week’s dud.
- J.K. Dobbins: Priced like he is a bell cow back.
Divisional Round Weekend Saturday Night Football Secondary NFL DFS Picks
- Gus Edwards: Major salary saver on DraftKings and to a lesser extent FanDuel keeps him in the mix.
- Gabriel Davis: Semi-redundant with a healthy Brown, still a viable fantasy play.
- Buffalo D/ST: #BillsMafia
- Baltimore D/ST: It just feels like they should be in line for a pick six or scoop and score against reformed turnover machine Josh Allen.
- Dawson Knox: Banking on a touchdown as it is hard to envision more than a couple targets going his way.
Divisional Round Saturday Football Lottery Tickets NFL DFS Picks
- Dez Bryant: Incredible salary relief at $600 on DraftKings, this will be his sixth game in the last three years.
- Miles Boykin: Needs to get lucky.
- Willie Snead: Needs to get lucky.
- Lee Smith/Tyler Kroft: They enter my player pool around the 50th lineup.
- Justice Hill/Patrick Ricard: They do just enough to warrant their own line.
- Devin Duvernay, Isaiah McKenzie, Eric Tomlinson: Time to go buy an actual lottery ticket.
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