Greetings, NFL DFS Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo daily fantasy football Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings Showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all of your daily fantasy needs. We have loads of information and NFL DFS picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 10 Thursday Night Football slate between the Indianapolis Colts and the Tennessee Titans.
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NFL DFS Picks: Week 10 Thursday Night Football
Indianapolis Colts: 24.25
While the Colts passing offense is in the bottom third of the league from a DVOA perspective, so is the Titans passing defense. In their last seven games, Tennessee has allowed the opposing signal-caller to post multiple aerial scores along with three 325+ passing yard performances. Philip Rivers has three touchdowns in two of his last three outings, but only 10 total on the season.
For perspective, the Week 10 Awesemo Big Board has Rivers as the 22nd-ranked quarterback on DraftKings and 20th on FanDuel for Week 10. Indianapolis is averaging 26.0 points per game, which is right in the middle of the pack. In his career, Rivers has three rushing touchdowns with the most recent one coming in Week 5 of the 2011 season.
Alex “Awesemo” Baker’s projected stats (part of Awesemo+) have Ryan Tannehill for 1.82 passing touchdowns Thursday night. He has at least two in all but one start, which is going to make the 1.5 OVER at -134 on OddsShopper an intriguing deal. Click on the image below to start shopping for the best edge in betting and check out all the player props available for tonight’s Thursday Night Football game between the Titans and Colts.
Jonathan Taylor has been a mess this year, topping 100 yards once back in Week 2. Now, to be fair, in the six games after that milestone, he has topped 13 carries only once. For those of you who have been appropriately avoiding Taylor on the main slates, do not get caught up with name recognition and first-round draft status. The snap counts are telling a much different story for those just tuning in:
|Player||Week 2||Week 3||Week 4||Week 5||Week 6||Week 8||Week 9|
|Jonathan Taylor||49 / 67%||24 / 40%||33 / 46%||31 / 55%||37 / 59%||26 / 34%||21 / 31%|
|Nyheim Hines||9 / 12%||20 / 33%||25 / 35%||21 / 38%||21 / 33%||16 / 21%||23 / 34%|
|Jordan Wilkins||17 / 23%||17 / 28%||12 / 17%||2 / 4%||4 / 6%||39 / 51%||23 / 34%|
Nyheim Hines appears to be a more secure option with his involvement in the passing game, a better quarterback protector and since he is at least a serviceable rusher. Jordan Wilkins has been getting more than just mop-up duty, and if Taylor has another fumble or missed block, it would not be a surprise at all to see Wilkins featured for a couple of drives while the rookie learns from the sideline.
The Awesemo premium projections have Wilkins within 1 and 1.5 points of Taylor on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Once we take into account the respective $3,400 and $1,500 discount, it is easy to understand why this duo has nearly identical levels of popularity on both sites.
My preference of this trio is easily Hines, who is a healthy $2,600 savings from Taylor on DraftKings and their full-PPR scoring. On FanDuel, Hines is discounted by $3,500 to Taylor and $2,000 to Wilkins, and the trio is within a 2-fantasy-point range, with Hines slightly leading there at 9.2 FanDuel points.
Talk about interchangeable pieces. T.Y. Hilton (groin) was held out last week, but he has been a fantasy disappointment for nearly two full seasons. In his last 20 games, he has topped 100 yards once. Lowering that bar to 75 yards brings us just three instances. Additionally, he has just five touchdowns in his last 24 games, all of which came last season. The price is a little better on DraftKings, but he is still coming in at an appropriate level on FanDuel for his anemic production.
Zach Pascal seems to be the most reliable option from a volume perspective with 6+ targets in four of his last five games. This will be rookie Michael Pittman‘s third game since returning from the injured reserve, and he is favorably priced, particularly on DraftKings. If Hilton is out, then Marcus Johnson will again enter the discussion.
Jack Doyle is out with a concussion, and Mo Alie-Cox has been dealing with a sore knee. Cox was a limited participant in practice on Tuesday and Wednesday. If he plays, he is a solid option, with at least three receptions in four of his seven games and 100 yards or a touchdown in three games.
Trey Burton is an interesting option with at least four targets in each of his last five games. The 24 targets for 15 catches, 122 yards and a touchdown along with a rushing touchdown is worth considering, given our lack of viable options in general.
With their run-first preference, the Titans have allowed only 11 sacks this season, though eight have come in the last four games. They are also leading the league with just four turnovers, so the potential for fantasy points will likely be limited for the visiting Colts.
Tennessee Titans: 24.25
Ryan Tannehill comes in just a few spots higher on the Awesemo Big Board for both DraftKings and FanDuel when compared to Rivers, but to me the difference is dramatic. The Colts have the second-best rushing DVOA and the fifth-best passing mark. Additionally, Indianapolis is allowing the third-fewest points in the league at just 20 per game.
Despite the tough matchup, I feel that Tannehill’s efficiency and lack of turnovers should make up the difference and account for the salary premium. This season he has 19 touchdown against just three interceptions. On the ground he is effective when needed, with 22 carries for 105 yards and another score. The 7.8 yards per attempt are just outside the top 10 quarterbacks, and his 109.4 passer rating is sixth.
Though he has topped 300 passing yards only twice, the former Dolphin has multiple touchdowns in all but one game this year. The Colts have ceded only three aerial touchdowns in their last three games, but Joe Burrow and Matthew Stafford both rolled up over 300 passing yards. Tannehill is content to take what the defense gives him, with five different pass-catchers seeing 30 targets but only two with more than 40 — A.J. Brown (48) and Corey Davis (42).
While Derrick Henry is the first, second and third option in the running game, it should be noted that he has had some help over the last two weeks. This makes sense, as the 6-2 Titans have their eye on the playoffs, and if Henry is burned out by then, they are not going to go very far.
Henry still had 18 carries 112 yards and a touchdown in Week 8 against Cincinnati and 21 carries for 68 yards last week against Chicago, but he has only one target and played on just 53% of the snaps in both games.
D’Onta Foreman has only played the last two weeks, but he had five carries for 37 yards and five carries for 11 yards on 14 total snaps. Yes, that came at the end of the games, but it shows that Henry can be rested as appropriate.
Jeremy McNichols is playing on around a third of the snaps over the last five games, though he is getting just a handful of opportunities each game.
Adam Humphries (concussion) missed last week, and he has yet to practice. Brown has been outstanding, and Davis is finally becoming more consistent in his fourth season. Of course, Davis did put up a zero last week on three targets, but he had 10 in each of the two prior games for a combined 14 catches for 163 yards and two touchdowns.
Just five opposing wide receivers have topped 65 yards, though they have all come in the last five games. There is no doubt that the Colts secondary is much improved with Xavier Rhodes, but Tannehill’s willingness to go to the open man should help keep the chains moving for Tennessee.
On a fun note, Indianapolis has yet to allow a touchdown to an opposing tight end, and only two have topped 50 receiving yards. MyCole Pruitt is out, so that leaves Jonnu Smith and Anthony Firkser to carry the mail. Since the Week 4 bye, Firkser has 25 targets and Smith has 17. Both have one touchdown in this stretch, though Smith has nearly twice as many snaps. The $4,800 DraftKings and $3,500 FanDuel discount for Firkser make him the easy choice.
The Colts have allowed just eight sacks this season with nine combined turnovers. However, I am quite interested in this squad against the soon to be 39-year-old Philip Rivers.
Thursday Night Football DraftKings Showdown + FanDuel Single Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and also for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those of you who are taking the MME approach, remember that correlation with your lineups is key. This means matching a receiver or two if you have a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their signal-caller.
Ben Rasa's Bet of the DayAwesemo's sports betting expert Ben Rasa pours over the day's betting lines and breaks down the best bet of the day for you to build your sports betting card around.
EMac’s Week 10 Thursday Night Football DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Rankings
Notable Inactives: IND Jack Doyle, TEN Adam Humphries, MyCole Pruitt
Week 10 Thursday Night Football Top 10 NFL DFS Picks
- Ryan Tannehill: This is not a hard sell at all.
- A.J. Brown: The intriguing plays at the top are going to be all Titans.
- Derrick Henry: You could go Henry with Tannehill and drop to Davis for the savings over Brown.
- Philip Rivers: Just be aware that he has five 20-fantasy-point performances in his last 20 games.
- Nyheim Hines: In my opinion, he is the safest of the Colts options for his price.
- Corey Davis: I would not fight anyone if they wanted to flip him with Brown for the hefty discount.
- Anthony Firkser: The savings makes a big difference in lineup construction.
- Rodrigo Blankenship/Stephen Gostkowski: Savings and they could loom large in a low-scoring game.
- Jordan Wilkins: This does not feel like a hot take at all.
- Zach Pascal: My preferred Colts wide receiver by a landslide.
Week 10 Thursday Night Football Secondary NFL DFS Picks
- Trey Burton: The $7,500 FanDuel price keeps him here. The $5,600 on DraftKings I would prefer if Alie-Cox was out.
- Michael Pittman: We need the rookie to make his first trip to the house for him to be a difference maker.
- Jonathan Taylor: Hopefully the masses roll with him, the fade could sting, but I am planting my flag.
- Jonnu Smith: He has played 81% and 95% of the snaps the last two weeks with four total targets.
- Tennessee D/ST: The price is reasonable, but the Colts do not make many mistakes.
Week 10 Thursday Night Football Lottery Tickets NFL DFS Picks
- T.Y. Hilton: Picture Lucy and Charlie Brown with the football.
- Mo Alie-Cox: FanDuel pricing has him up with Burton. DraftKings pricing is not as forgiving tonight.
- Indianapolis D/ST: Nice from a bend-don’t-break perspective, not as active from a fantasy goodness angle.
- Jeremy McNichols: Being priced at the minimum on DraftKings gives him value. On FanDuel it is not necessary.
- Marcus Johnson: Better if Hilton were to sit.
- D’Onta Foreman: Not exciting, but he does still warrant his own line.
- Kalif Raymond: 39 snaps in the last three games with one lonely target. Returns kickoffs and punts.
- Cameron Batson, Khari Blasingame: Time to go buy an actual lottery ticket.
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