Greetings, NFL DFS Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo daily fantasy football Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings Showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all of your daily fantasy needs. We have loads of information and NFL DFS picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 12 Wednesday Afternoon Football slate between the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers.
NFL DFS Picks: Week 12 Wednesday Afternoon Football
Baltimore Ravens: 15.0
After being postponed for nearly a week with COVID-19 related concerns, it looks like the NFL will get their wish of playing this game. Last Wednesday we received word of an outbreak among the Ravens players and staff which cancelled the Thanksgiving marquee nightcap. Nearly two dozen players and personnel have tested positive for Baltimore or were in close contact with a positive case. Pittsburgh has also lost James Conner with a positive test.
Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, Mark Ingram, Mark Andrews and Willie Snead are all out, along with most of the defensive line.
Quarterback
Robert Griffin III will be leading a patchwork group of offensive skill position players against the last remaining undefeated team. The Steelers have the sixth-best rushing DVOA and second-best passing DVOA. They also lead the league in takeaways and sacks.
Griffin last played semi-meaningful snaps in a Week 17 start after Baltimore had locked in their playoff spot. Over the last six seasons, the 2012 Rookie of the Year has played 10 snaps just a dozen times. It is hard to get excited for Griffin in this daunting matchup without much of a price discount on DraftKings $8,400 and FanDuel $14,500.
Running Back
J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram could be eligible to play if they have negative tests on Wednesday. This section will be updated if either or both are eligible to return.
Gus Edwards moves into the lead back role with Dobbins and Ingram on the COVID-19 reserve. Of course, Griffin will be involved as well, but the quarterback can’t keep the ball on every play. Edwards is an adequate between-the-tackles runner and fine in the red zone, but DFS gamers are all too familiar with his last of involvement in the passing game. He has five targets in his last four games for 42 yards, and sheer lack of options should see him getting at least a couple of looks in our Wednesday afternoon tilt.
One other thing to consider is that the running backs have seen 4.0 targets on average over the last month, so it is not like Edwards is really missing out on that much receiving action in this offense. Of course, he is compared to other running backs on this slate, but his opportunities have been pretty similar to Dobbins.
Second-year back Justice Hill has seen offensive snaps in four games so far this season with one target for a catch and three yards among his 17 total snaps. Last year he was not quite replacement level, however. His current $2,200 price tag on DraftKings is attractive, and the $9,000 cap number on FanDuel is fair.
Fullback Patrick Ricard has just one carry, on which he lost a yard, and seven targets for 24 yards and a touchdown in his 10 games. With this thinned-out backfield, he is in play as a desperation play in the large-field tournaments.
Wide Receiver
The Ravens have attempted more than 30 passes only twice this season and they are averaging 27.9 attempts per game, which is the third lowest in the league. As mentioned above, Pittsburgh has the second-best passing DVOA, and they are also allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing signal-callers. Through 10 games the average opposing quarterback line has been 34.4 pass attempts for 203.5 yards, 1.5 touchdowns and 1.5 interceptions. It is not going to be pretty with Griffin at the helm.
Let’s look at how the targets have been distributed for Baltimore.
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In a surprising twist, Snead has been the most consistent option, with Marquise Brown failing to improve upon his solid rookie campaign. Snead and both tight ends are out so that should consolidate the opportunities. Dez Bryant is back in the mix for the first time since 2017 and he did get five targets for four catches and 28 yards in Week 11.
Devin Duvernay will be working in as the third receiver, and he should see a couple of targets in addition to his return duties. Miles Boykin has been a disappointment, and it is hard to find anything positive to say about him from a fantasy perspective.
Tight Ends
Nick Boyle is out for the remainder of the season with a knee injury, and Mark Andrews is on the COVID-19 reserve list. Baltimore has tabbed journeyman Luke Willson as his replacement. Just be aware that the Steelers are allowing the fewest fantasy points to tight ends this year with an average of 7.4 targets for 3.6 reception, 36.4 yards and no touchdowns.
Defense/Special Teams
Pittsburgh has suffered only two sacks in their last five game. Coincidentally, they came in the Week 8 game against Baltimore. The Steelers nine giveaways are the third fewest in the league this season. It is hard to envision the Ravens mustering much of a pass rush with most of the defensive line on the COVID-19 list.
Pittsburgh Steelers: 25.5
Quarterback
While the yardage has been pretty pedestrian for Ben Roethlisberger at 253.4 per game, he has 24 touchdowns against just five interceptions in his 10 games. Even though Pittsburgh checks in with the 18th-most yards passing per game, they jump to sixth when it comes to attempts. This bodes well for the general baseline of Roethlisberger, even though he will not be contributing anything on the ground. It also provides a great deal of both full and half-PPR upside for his receiving options.
The Ravens have the 10th-best passing DVOA, and even though they held Roethlisberger to just 182 yards in the last meeting, he had two touchdowns. While the gaudy totals may not be there, the 38-year-old veteran is in the mix as the top fantasy option of the single-game slate, particularly on FanDuel.
Wanna bet?
Alex “Awesemo” Baker’s projected stats (part of Awesemo+) have Ben Roethlisberger completing 23.7 passes, which makes the under 25.5 at -125 on OddsShopper an intriguing way to hedge some our DFS lineups. Click on the image below to start shopping for the best edge in betting and check out all the player props available for the Wednesday afternoon football action between the Steelers and Ravens.
Running Back
With James Conner out, Benny Snell slides into the lead role. He has found the end zone three times in the last five games on just 21 carries. Anthony McFarland will be the RB2 with Jaylen Samuels (quad) out with an injury. It would be no surprise if the Steelers can get out to an early lead and then turn the game over to their running back understudies. Both are very much in play on the single-game slate, and Snell is a viable cash game option for the Wednesday through Sunday slate.
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Wide Receiver
The big news, of course, is the health of JuJu Smith-Schuster, who hurt his foot while stepping awkwardly on the weighted portion of a penalty flag last week as he was walking towards the sideline. The erstwhile WR1 has touchdowns in two of his last three games, and he has topped 67 yards with at least six receptions in four of the last five. The extra time off has definitely helped and he is expected to be a full go on Wednesday afternoon.
In games that he starts and finishes, Diontae Johnson has been racking up the fantasy goodness. Over his last two games he has 27 targets for 227 yards and a touchdown with double-digit targets in six of his seven healthy games. Both FanDuel and DraftKings have him properly priced as the most expensive Pittsburgh pass catcher.
Rookie Chase Claypool leads the team with 10 touchdowns, including two on the ground. While he is third on the team in targets, he leads the team with 14.3 yards per reception, and his 559 yards receiving are actually just ahead of both Johnson (537) and Smith-Schuster (535).
James Washington will probably see his customary 2-4 targets, with Ray-Ray McCloud in a similar range. Both of these players are worthy of consideration for an NFL DFS pick once we get to the 20-25 lineup range.
Tight End
Eric Ebron is solid, with at least five targets in eight of his last nine games. He has 24 of the last 25 Pittsburgh tight end targets. Vance McDonald has COVID-19 and has missed the last two weeks, there has been no status update, but there is also little reason for the Steelers to rush him back.
Defense/Special Teams
Pittsburgh leads the league in sacks and takeaways. In the last meeting with Baltimore they got to Jackson four times and also had a pair of interceptions. DraftKings has done a nice job of pricing them at $7,800, but they are still worthy of our consideration.
Wednesday Afternoon DraftKings Showdown + FanDuel Single Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and also for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those of you who are taking the MME approach, remember that correlation with your lineups is key. This means matching a receiver or two if you have a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their signal-caller.
EMac’s Week 12 Wednesday Afternoon Football DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Rankings
Dobbins and Ingram could play if they test negative Wednesday, these rankings will be updated accordingly once we have that news.
Week 12 Wednesday Afternoon Football Top 10 NFL DFS Picks
- Ben Roethlisberger: While there is no rushing upside (21 yards in his last 12 games), he is by far the top option.
- Diontae Johnson: With the lack of other options, he is worthy of Captain/MVP consideration.
- Benny Snell: Twenty touches is a distinct possibility.
- Chase Claypool: Clearly a red zone threat and live to score from anywhere on the field.
- Justin Tucker/Chris Boswell: The potentially tricky Heinz Field cross-winds should not be much of an impact today.
- Gus Edwards: Should flirt with 20 carries.
- Justice Hill: The $2,200 price tag on DraftKings has him firmly in play. On FanDuel the $9,000 price is fair but drops him to the top of the next section.
- JuJu Smith-Schuster: Looking like he will be a terrific leverage play. However, Roethlisberger has been content to go elsewhere this year.
- Robert Griffin III: Not much of a price break for a journeyman in an incredibly tough matchup.
- Pittsburgh D/ST: The appropriate over/under for combined sacks and turnovers of 4.5 feels about right with a 25% chance of a touchdown when considering the patchwork Baltimore offense.
Week 12 Wednesday Afternoon Football Secondary NFL DFS Picks
- Eric Ebron: I wouldn’t fight anyone who wanted to rank him higher.
- Anthony McFarland: Wild card with his variable workload, but there is a good chance Pittsburgh runs the ball the entire second half.
- Marquise Brown: Perfect time for a redemption game from Brown. Five straight games of single-digit fantasy production.
- Dez Bryant: One-game sample size hard to trust after being out of the league for two full seasons.
Week 12 Wednesday Afternoon Football Lottery Tickets NFL DFS Picks
- Ravens D/ST: Just enough potential against the statuesque Roethlisberger to have them at the top of the lottery section.
- Ray-Ray McCloud: Price and potential trick play upside keep him just ahead of Washington. Also returns punts and kickoffs.
- James Washington: Really needs an in-game injury to have much value.
- Devin Duvernay: Would have been where Bryant is if the former Cowboy was not with the team.
Patrick Ricard:Just enough of a void in the Ravens backfield to earn his own line.On Covid-19 reserve.- Luke Willson, James Proche: Time to go buy an actual lottery ticket.
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