NFL Prime Time Showdown: Week 14 Monday Night Football Ravens at Browns | DraftKings + FanDuel

Greetings, NFL DFS Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo daily fantasy football Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings Showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all of your daily fantasy needs. We have loads of information and NFL DFS picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 14 Monday Night Football slate between the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns.

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NFL DFS Picks: Week 14 Monday Night Football

Baltimore Ravens: 24.25

Quarterback

This will be the third game in 12 days for Baltimore. They took care of business last Wednesday handily dispatching Dallas 34-17. However, their playoff hold is tenuous, as they have lost four of their last six games.

Lamar Jackson was solid against the Cowboys after missing time with Covid-19. Though he only had 107 passing yards, he did have two touchdowns on only 17 attempts. He also rushed 13 times for 94 yards and a score. When he played against Cleveland back in Week 1, he was 20 for 25 with 275 yards passing and three touchdowns while toting the rock seven times for another 45 yards. That was a lifetime ago, particularly in 2020, but good to see nonetheless.

The Browns have allowed eight of the 12 opposing quarterbacks to have multi-touchdown games. For the full week, Jackson is a QB3-5 depending on your scoring system and projection source of choice.


Wanna bet?

Alex “Awesemo” Baker’s projected stats (part of Awesemo+) have Lamar Jackson with 195.7 passing yards, which makes the under 204.5 at -118 on OddsShopper an intriguing way to hedge some our DFS lineups. Click on the image below to start shopping for the best edge in betting and check out all the player props available for the Monday Night Football action between the Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns.


Running Back

J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram returned after missing Week 12 while on the COVID-19 reserve. It looked like Dobbins had his rookie breakout in Week 11, but Week 13 brought a shared backfield. To be fair, Gus Edwards was doing a lot of his work when Baltimore was salting away their commanding lead while finishing off the Cowboys.

Cleveland has the 19th rushing DVOA and has allowed eight different running backs to roll up 75 combined yards, though they have ceded only two touchdowns to the position over their last five games. A reasonable expectation will be something of a 50/25/25 snap share split between Dobbins, Edwards and Ingram.

We will be asked to pay more for Dobbins on both sites than his counterparts, though depending on your roster build strategy Edwards becomes an intriguing option depending on where his popularity shakes out.

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Wide Receiver

The Browns passing DVOA has been in the bottom third of the league for most of the season. Unfortunately, Baltimore is not particularly adept in taking advantage of these situations this year. The Ravens are averaging a league-worst 169.3 passing yards per game on the fewest attempts and completions. Their 7.0 yards per attempt and 63.1% completion rate is pedestrian, to say the least.

Willie Snead has been out for the last two games with COVID-19, but he is expected to return. Coming out of the Week 7 bye, Snead had tallied seven, four, seven and seven targets, which was eight more than Marquise Brown. Snead comes at a $2,500 discount on FanDuel and a $1,800 discount on DraftKings when compared to his big-play counterpart.

Brown has topped double-digit fantasy points only twice in his last eight games, and they came during the two without Snead and tight end Mark Andrews. Miles Boykin will be relegated to running wind sprints, but Devin Duvernay can be considered a discount dandy on DraftKings, though we should expect two or three targets in addition to his kick return duties.

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Tight Ends

Andrews has been activated from the COVID-19 reserve and should be ready to resume his standard passing down workload. It would not be a surprise if Luke Willson and Eric Tomlinson did some of the heavy lifting on rushing downs. Willson missed practice Saturday with a hip injury, will update if additional news becomes available. Keep in mind that Nick Boyle is on the injured reserve. Luke Willson Inactive

Prior to missing the last two games, Andrews was leading the team in targets, receptions, yards and touchdowns. He was on pace for a full-season rate in the range of 750 yards and close to double-digit touchdowns. Cleveland has allowed five tight end touchdowns in their last four games.

Defense/Special Teams

Cleveland has allowed the sixth fewest sacks at just 1.5 per game and the fourth fewest turnovers at 1.1 per contest. Baltimore is in the middle of the pack with 1.5 takeaways and 2.4 sacks per tilt.

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Cleveland Browns: 21.25

Quarterback

Talk about an up-and-down season. In his last six appearances, Baker Mayfield has had games of five, four and two touchdowns while being shut out in the other three. Last week he hung 334 yards and four touchdowns on Tennessee, which was his first 300-yard passing performance since Week 12 last year. Only three quarterbacks have topped 275 passing yards against the Ravens’ 10th-rated passing DVOA. Their 17 passing touchdowns allowed is the fifth best, and their opposing passer rating of 89.3 is in the top 10.

Mayfield is appropriately priced on both DraftKings and FanDuel. The intriguing strategy comes into play once we understand where the field is likely to land on Nick Chubb and Jarvis Landry, who both are similarly priced and project within a point of each other.

Running Back

In the four games since Chubb returned from injury, both he and Kareem Hunt are essentially splitting the snaps. Hunt has the edge in targets 10-to-4 in that timeframe, though Chubb has been piling up the rushing yards with 80, 144, 114 and 126 in those games with three touchdowns. D’Ernest Johnson is the only other running back to see the ball in the last month, with one measly target.

Now for the cold bucket of reality: The Ravens have the fourth-best rushing DVOA in the league, and they have allowed just four rushing touchdowns and three receiving touchdowns to running backs on the season. Chubb is the preferred option for his likely higher level of touches. FanDuel and DraftKings have both done a solid job discounting Hunt enough that he becomes a viable alternate.

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Wide Receiver

Jarvis Landry is coming off back-to-back stellar performances. Yes, it helps that Odell Beckham is on the shelf, but it also helps finally playing a couple games in decent weather. While it will be cold in Cleveland, there is no projected precipitation and the wind is a manageable 10-15 mph. Heading into Tuesday’s game, Baltimore had allowed just six touchdowns to wide receivers before the Cowboys added two more. They tend to keep everything in front of them and the big plays to a minimum. This should actually benefit Landry.

Rashard Higgins has stepped up in the absence of Beckham, and he is a capable possession receiver who occasionally splits the seam for a solid gain. Donovan Peoples-Jones is the guy you have not heard of yet, but the sixth-round rookie out of Michigan has been pressed into duty over the last six weeks. If KhaDarel Hodge (hamstring) misses Monday’s game, Higgins and Peoples-Jones become what-the-heck options.

Tight End

Austin Hooper (neck) is not expected to play on Monday. The Browns run a fair amount of two-tight end sets. Over the last month, Harrison Bryant has played on 55-63% of the snaps, while David Njoku has played on 35-60%. During this stretch Hooper has seen 11 targets, while his position mates have each seen two.

Njoku is just $1,000 on DraftKings, and he becomes one of the best discount dandies there. On FanDuel he is $7,000 compared to Bryant’s $6,000 price tag, so leveraging against the field will likely come into play.

Defense/Special Teams

Baltimore has allowed multiple sacks in eight of 12 games and 10 turnovers in their last six. Cleveland has actually been getting good pressure on opposing quarterbacks, and they are in the top third of the league with 2.5 sacks per game and third with 20 takeaways.

Monday Night DraftKings Showdown + FanDuel Single Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and also for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those of you who are taking the MME approach, remember that correlation with your lineups is key. This means matching a receiver or two if you have a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their signal-caller.

EMac’s Week 14 Monday Night Football DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Rankings

NOTABLE INACTIVES: CLE Austin Hooper, KhaDarel Hodge, Marvin Hall BAL Luke Willson

Week 14 Monday Night Football Top 10 NFL DFS Picks

  1. Lamar Jackson: His raw fantasy point projection is nearly a third more than any other player.
  2. Jarvis Landry: Definitely is our second option on DraftKings, and the $2,500 discount on FanDuel versus Mayfield is helpful.
  3. Nick Chubb: Could see as many as 20-25 touches, which keeps him ahead of Mayfield on DraftKings.
  4. Baker Mayfield: FanDuel single-game strategy would push him to second overall if you are building three or fewer lineups.
  5. Justin Tucker/Cody Parkey: In a lower-scoring game, field goals carry more weight and we need the savings.
  6. Mark Andrews: Ideally he would get more of the rushing plays off, but he still is on the field for high-leverage situations in his return from COVID-19.
  7. Kareem Hunt: I would be hard-pressed to play both Chubb and Hunt in the same lineup.
  8. J.K. Dobbins: Sharing the running back duties, and Jackson getting double-digit carries makes Dobbins a highly variant option.
  9. Willie Snead: Assuming full health and normal workload, his price tag is appealing on both sites.
  10. David Njoku: DraftKings price of $1,000 really opens everything up with Hooper out.

Week 14 Monday Night Football Secondary NFL DFS Picks

  1. Marquise Brown: Likely goes back to 4-6 targets with both Andrews and Snead returning to active duty.
  2. Rashard Higgins: Not much of a discount, but he should be in line for 4-6 targets, potentially more if the game goes sideways.
  3. Baltimore D/ST: Fair price, and we are counting on a return touchdown for this unit to be a difference maker.
  4. Gus Edwards: So many things have to go his way at his current price point.
  5. Cleveland D/ST: Just takes one big play.

Week 14 Monday Night Football Lottery Tickets NFL DFS Picks

  1. Harrison Bryant: Spendy on DraftKings, prefer him on FanDuel.
  2. Mark Ingram: Needs even more to go right than Edwards, better price on DraftKings for the risk of only 4-6 touches.
  3. Devin Duvernay: DraftKings salary saver, does not have the same benefit on FanDuel.
  4. Donovan Peoples-Jones: In play as long has Hodge is out. Also returns punts and kickoffs.
  5. Luke Willson: Missed practice on Saturday with a hip injury, will update if additional information is released.
  6. Eric Tomlinson: Just $200 on DraftKings, really needs Willson to be inactive.
  7. Miles Boykin, D’Ernest Johnson, Justice Hill, James Proche, Andy Janovich: Time to go buy an actual lottery ticket.

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Looking for more Week 14 NFL DFS picks content? We have loads of Week 14 articles, data, DraftKings and FanDuel NFL DFS Picks cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo NFL home page. Just click HERE.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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