NFL Prime Time Showdown: Week 14 Sunday Night Football Steelers at Bills | DraftKings + FanDuel

Greetings, NFL DFS Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo daily fantasy football Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings Showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all of your daily fantasy needs. We have loads of information and NFL DFS picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 14 Sunday Night Football slate between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills.

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NFL DFS Picks: Week 14 Sunday Night Football

Pittsburgh Steelers: 23.0

Quarterback

Buffalo has been a middle-of-the-road team against the pass this season with the 14th-best passing DVOA per FootballOutsiders. They have allowed opposing quarterbacks to account for multiple touchdowns in eight of their 12 games. Those not up to the task were Sam Darnold (twice), Cam Newton (who did have a rushing score while leading the Patriots to victory 24-20) and rookie Justin Herbert.

The volume has been there and then some for Ben Roethlisberger who has thrown 53, 52, 46 and 46 passes in his last four appearances. James Conner is likely to return from a bout with COVID-19 after missing the last two games. However, in his four showings prior to going out with illness he was averaging only 12.7 carries per game.

Roethlisberger has multiple touchdowns in 10 of 12 games, and he has topped 300 passing yards in three of his last five tilts. In those games he is averaging 295.4 yards with 2.4 aerial scores.

Remember those pesky home/road splits that really did seem like a real deal for a few years? Well, they are a thing of the past and/or a product of a limited sample size.

Career Home/Road Splits

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2020 Home/Road Splits

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Running Back

James Conner has been activated after missing the last two games with COVID-19. In his stead we saw some lukewarm performances by Benny Snell and Anthony McFarlandLast week we even had an appearance from Jaylen Samuels, who has been dealing with various maladies and/or just outright being inactive.

The likely scenario is Conner getting about 60% of the workload, Snell getting some rushing opportunities and Samuels acting as the backup in pass-catching situations — assuming he is active of course.

Never Miss An Active/Inactive Ever Again Don't get burned by a player being ruled out last minute, use our New NFL Depth Charts page to see starting lineups and inactive players for every team.  

Wide Receiver

Diontae Johnson continues to lead the way in targets with Juju Smith-Schuster right behind. Over the last five games, both receivers have consistently been playing 80-90% of the snaps.

Chase Claypool has seen his snaps decline over the last five weeks. After playing on a season-high 81% of the snaps in Week 9, he has followed that up with 60%, 63% and 63%, and then last week he was down to 44%. It would appear that James Washington is the beneficiary of this change, though it is tough to know how permanent or significant it will remain.

Pittsburgh WR/TE Targets

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Claypool is still getting more snaps and targets, but both he and Washington are a threat to score from anywhere on the field. That is worth keeping in mind for the single-game contests.

Tight Ends

With 11 targets each of the last two weeks, one could infer that Eric Ebron was the beneficiary of Conner being on the shelf. He had at least six targets in six of his last seven games. For perspective, Vance McDonald has 11 on the year and saw the last non-Ebron tight end target back in Week 9.

Defense/Special Teams

Buffalo is 12th in the league with 17 turnovers, while the Steelers lead the league with 23 takeaways. The Bills are allowing 2.0 sacks per game, which is in the middle of the pack. Pittsburgh is tops in the category with 42 on the season.

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Buffalo Bills: 32.25

Quarterback

This is not going to be an easy outing by any stretch for Buffalo. For the year the Steelers have the best passing DVOA and the third-best rushing DVOA while leading the league in both sacks and turnovers. Even with the tough matchup, Josh Allen is still coming in as a top-five quarterback on the full slate.

Though the rushing yards are not quite up to his usual standards, Allen does have six touchdowns after scoring nine and eight on the ground during his first two campaigns. He also has multiple aerial scores in nine of his twelve appearances. Pittsburgh has yet to allow a 300-yard passer, though Alex Smith came close last week with 296 yards after losing running back Antonio Gibson early in the game.

The Steelers have kept half of the opposing signal-callers to one or fewer touchdowns this season. However, Allen will be the most accomplished field general they have faced since Deshaun Watson back in Week 3.


Wanna bet?

Alex “Awesemo” Baker’s projected stats (part of Awesemo+) have Josh Allen with 291.5 passing yards, which makes the over 280.5 at -115 on OddsShopper an intriguing way to hedge some our DFS lineups. Click on the image below to start shopping for the best edge in betting and check out all the player props available for the Sunday Night Football action between Buffalo Bills and Pittsburgh Steelers.


Running Back

After essentially splitting everything down the middle for five straight weeks, Zack Moss saw just 11 snaps on Monday Night Football after losing a fumble under the shadow of the Buffalo goal post in the first quarter. Devin Singletary leads the way with a season-high 85% snap share.

The Steelers have the third-best rushing DVOA, and it is highly likely this duo will go back to their prior shared efforts. Moss should again see the slight edge in the run game with Singletary getting a couple more targets in passing situations. The slight discount on DraftKings of $1,000 gives Moss the distinct edge there; on FanDuel they are both priced at $11,500, which makes neither option particularly appealing.

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Wide Receiver

Stefon Diggs is second in the league with 120 targets, tied for first with Keenan Allen with 90 receptions and sixth with 86.4 yards per game. The four scores is disappointing, but that is because Allen does not play favorites when it comes to touchdowns. Cole Beasley matched Diggs with 11 targets last week, giving him 28 over the last three games, which is almost as many as everyone else not named Diggs combined. John Brown is on the injured reserve with an ankle injury though he may be back next week.

In Brown’s stead, rookie Gabriel Davis has seen his snap share dramatically increase. While he has averaged just four targets over the last four games, he does have touchdowns in three of those tilts. Isaiah McKenzie was in for his typical 8-15 snaps and saw two targets, turning one into a score. With Brown out, he is the WR4 and a viable dart throw on the single-game slate if you are making 50-plus lineups. In 11 games he has caught all but one target for 171 yards and three touchdowns, which reinforces Allen’s propensity to take the open man when a score is on the line.

Tight End

Dawson Knox found the end zone for the second week in a row, albeit on limited volume. In his last four games he has seen eight targets for 45 yards and two touchdowns. Lee Smith is the only other tight end to have seen snaps in the last three weeks, averaging 18 per game, though he was targeted only twice.

Defense/Special Teams

The Steelers have ceded a league-low 10 sacks over their 12 games. Buffalo is on the fringe of being in the top 10 with 2.5 sacks per game. The Bills are sixth in the league with 1.6 takeaways per game, but Pittsburgh is allowing the fourth-fewest turnovers at just one per game.

Sunday Night DraftKings Showdown + FanDuel Single Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and also for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those of you who are taking the MME approach, remember that correlation with your lineups is key. This means matching a receiver or two if you have a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their signal-caller.

EMac’s Week 14 Sunday Night Football DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Rankings

Week 14 Sunday Night Football Top 10 NFL DFS Picks

  1. Josh AllenMultiple touchdowns in 10 of 12 with 26 passing and six on the ground.
  2. Ben RoethlisbergerWill get nothing on the ground, likely will approach 50 pass attempts.
  3. Diontae JohnsonDefinitely the WR1 for Pittsburgh.
  4. Stefon DiggsHe will be the focus of the Steelers but still should see volume.
  5. Cole BeasleyThe $2,400 discount to Diggs on DraftKings makes him a nice consolation prize. The $4,000 difference on FanDuel is even better.
  6. Gabriel DavisWe need some savings, and he has big play upside if Pittsburgh rolls coverage to Diggs as expected Sunday night.
  7. Eric EbronTight ends are never exciting, but we know Roethlisberger relies on them — 22 targets in his last two games.
  8. JuJu Smith-Schuster: At least 17.5 fantasy points in full-PPR four times in his last seven games.
  9. Chris Boswell/Tyler BassWoo hoo, kickers.
  10. James ConnerHe has not topped 15 fantasy points since Week 6. Word is that he has recovered from his bout with COVID-19.

Week 14 Sunday Night Football Secondary NFL DFS Picks

  1. Chase ClaypoolCan score from anywhere on the field and has multi-touchdown upside. However, we are paying full freight.
  2. Zack Moss/Devin SingletaryIt is going to come down to red zone opportunities, which makes this duo a coinflip at best.
  3. Pittsburgh D/ST: Leading the league in sacks and takeaways.

Week 14 Sunday Night Football Lottery Tickets NFL DFS Picks

  1. Dawson KnoxHas red zone upside, not much volume otherwise.
  2. James WashingtonDouble-digit fantasy points three times this year. He will need a big play, but the price is right.
  3. Buffalo D/ST: Roethlisberger limits turnovers and rarely takes sacks these days.
  4. Benny Snell: Should see about a third of the backfield opportunities, but Samuels is now lurking.
  5. Isaiah McKenzieTen touches in his last six games, including three carries. Worthy of his own line.
  6. Vance McDonaldWould need a fortuitous red zone score or an in-game injury to befall Ebron.
  7. Jaylen SamuelsPotentially inactive, but we had a sighting last week in the absence of Conner and ineffectiveness of Snell.
  8. Reggie Gilliam, Ray-Ray McCloud, Jake Kumerow, Anthony McFarland Jr, Lee Smith, Andre Roberts, Derek Watt: Pass.

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Looking for more Week 14 NFL DFS picks content? We have loads of Week 14 articles, data, DraftKings and FanDuel NFL DFS Picks cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo NFL home page. Just click HERE.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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