NFL Prime Time Showdown: Week 15 Saturday Night Football l Panthers at Packers | DraftKings + FanDuel

Greetings, NFL DFS Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo daily fantasy football Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings Showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all of your daily fantasy needs. We have loads of information and NFL DFS picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 15 Saturday Night Football slate between the Carolina Panthers and Green Bay Packers.

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NFL DFS Picks: Week 15 Saturday Night Football DraftKings + FanDuel

Carolina Panthers: 21.75

Quarterback

This will be a tricky matchup for Teddy Bridgewater against the second-ranked passing DVOA per FootballOutsiders. In their last 26 regular season and playoff games, the Packers have allowed only three 300-plus passing performances.

Teddy “Two Gloves” checks in as a fringe QB20 for the full week and he has just 14 passing touchdowns against eight interceptions through 12 starts. We should be aware that he also has four rushing touchdowns, with three coming in his last four appearances.

Running Back

At this point, the whole Matt Ruhle charade with Christian McCaffrey‘s status is dinner theater. CMC played the first two games before succumbing to injury late in Week 2. He then missed six weeks and “came back for a limited role,” which was in all actuality a “full” workload with the most touches for the 2020 season. That Week 9 heroic effort was the last time we have seen him on the field. For the last few weeks, the Ruhle Rumba has been announcing that CMC may play, has a chance to play, is unlikely to play and then is “Ruhled” out as if we were all stupid. Do not expect to see him for the remainder of the year as Carolina’s next loss eliminates them from the post season.

Now back to reality, Mike Davis is a fine play who is averaging 15 carries for 56.7 rushing yards with 14 targets for 3.3 receptions and nearly 27 receiving yards along with three rushing touchdowns over the last three games. Green Bay is in the bottom-third of the league when it comes to rushing DVOA and they have allowed 13 running backs to top 65-plus combined yards.

Rodney Smith is the deep, Deep, DEEP option who has 16 and 15 snaps over the last two weeks, which is miles ahead of any running back not named Mike Davis. 

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Wide Receiver

The Packers have a mediocre passing defense as evidenced by their 19th-ranked passing DVOA. This is one of those bend-but-don’t-break situations. D.J. Moore was out last week on the COVID-19 reserve list, however this was just for close contact and he is expected to be available on Saturday night. He and Robby Anderson have been very effective this season as the Panthers’ dynamic duo in their receiving corps.

Curtis Samuel (hamstring) continues to be involved with a handful of targets each game along with a couple of carries. Pharoh Cooper and Brandon Zylstra popped up last week on the snap-count sheet, but with Moore back neither is likely to be a viable option, even on the Saturday slate. Their five targets last week was a lot, when we consider they have combined for eight on the year.

Tight Ends

Ian Thomas seems like the lead tight end with 24 of the 34 targets to this position. For perspective, that is just under two per game and that should calibrate our thinking, even on the short slate.

Defense/Special Teams

The Packers have ceded more than one sack only twice this season. They have suffered only eight in their last eight games. As for turnovers, they have not had any in their last three games. Carolina has just 19 sacks, which in in the bottom five, and its 18 takeaways are middle of the pack.

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Green Bay Packers: 29.75

Quarterback

Currently Aaron Rodgers is leading the league with 39 passing touchdowns while being picked off only four times. No quarterback within 149 pass attempts has suffered fewer interceptions. This is an excellent matchup against the Panthers who have allowed at least three touchdowns to opposing signal-callers in four of their last five games. Looking at the full Week 15 quarterback rankings, Rodgers is Top-5 in nearly every projection system.


Wanna bet?

Alex “Awesemo” Baker’s projected stats (part of Awesemo+) have Aaron Rodgers with 267.1 yards passing, which makes the under 295.5 at -110 on OddsShopper an intriguing way to hedge some our DraftKings and FanDuel DFS lineups. Click on the image below to start shopping for the best edge in betting and check out all the player props available for the Saturday Night Football action between the Green Bay Packers and Carolina Panthers.


Running Back

Aaron Jones is a DFS wildcard. In his last six healthy games, he has topped 15 carries once with three or more targets in only half of those appearances. This is pointed out not to dissuade you from rolling with him, but rather to set appropriate expectations. Jones has been a DFS darling many a time, however, we need to realize that he has reached pay dirt only twice in his last half dozen tilts.

Over the last two games, it would seem as Jamaal Williams has somewhat fallen out of favor. He has been in the mix for one third of the snaps compared to nearly half of the action for the two tilts prior to that. Williams has also fallen behind in targets for these four games 12 to four though he is hanging tough with eight red zone touches to the dozen for Jones. No other running back has and an offensive look in the last four games. This just cements how frequently Green Bay is passing these days.

Wide Receiver

Despite playing two less games than most wide receivers, Davante Adams has been PHENOMENAL. The former Fresno State Bulldog has been an ace in the hole and even with the dramatic price hike, we should not be shying away. He has seen at least 12 targets in seven of his last nine appearances. In a fun-with-numbers twist, the Panthers have allowed multiple touchdowns to opposing wide receivers in three of their last five games. With 10 touchdowns allowed to the position in the last five games, we can cast our lot with a few long-shot options.

While Allen Lazard and Marquez Valdes-Scantling have played similar snaps, the target edge surprisingly has been towards Lazard. Now this is not something we can count on, however, for the single-game slate we definitely should pay attention to trends. MVS is always a threat to score, however he has just one touchdown in his last four games and has scored just five times this season.

Tight End

Jace Sternberger is out, so that leaves Robert Tonyan, who will be backed up by veteran Marcedes Lewis. Tonyan has five targets in each of his last four games and his nine receiving touchdowns are behind only Adams. On FanDuel, he is wildly expensive with a $10,500 price tag, though that should keep his popularity at bay. The DraftKings salary of $6,400 is still a premium, but more palatable. We will need Tonyan to score his 10th touchdown of the season to be a difference maker. Lewis has more than a single target just once in his last seven games, but he does have three touchdowns on the year. We can consider him as a discount dandy beginning around lineup No. 25.

Defense/Special Teams

Green Bay is averaging 2.7 sacks per game, which is in the top third of the league. Carolina has done a solid job protecting the quarterback, ceding two sacks per game and they are averaging just one turnover per contest. The Packers have the fourth-lowest takeaway rate with just one per game.

Saturday Night DraftKings Showdown + FanDuel Single Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and also for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those of you who are taking the MME approach, remember that correlation with your lineups is key. This means matching a receiver or two if you have a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their signal-caller.

EMac’s Week 15 Saturday Night Football DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Rankings

Week 15 Saturday Night Football Top 10 NFL DFS Picks

  1. Davante Adams: Don’t even think twice.
  2. Aaron Rodgers: Gets a discount on both sites to Adams, but odds are if Rodgers has a good game, Adams outscores him.
  3. Teddy Bridgewater: Teddy “Two Gloves” will be ready for the cold weather.
  4. Mike Davis: Easier to trust than Jones with nobody competing for backfield touches.
  5. Robby Anderson: He has turned in an outstanding season, though he has just two touchdowns.
  6. D.J. Moore: Back after missing last week for a COVID-19 close contact. The 18.5 yards per catch leads the league with receivers topping 35+ receptions.
  7. Mason Crosby/Joey Slye: We need the savings desperately.
  8. Aaron Jones: Could break the slate or break our hearts.
  9. Curtis Samuel: Was limited on Thursday with a hamstring, no word on the severity.
  10. Robert Tonyan: Not much “profit potential” left at his lofty price point.

Week 15 Saturday Night Football Secondary NFL DFS Picks

  1. Allen Lazard/Marquez Valdes-Scantling: Coinflip.
  2. Jamaal Williams: Just 17 touches over the last two games, but that is reflected by his depressed salary.
  3. Rodney Smith: Who? Oh yeah, the Mike Davis contingency plan.
  4. Carolina D/ST: $2,200 savings compared to the Packers.
  5. Green Bay D/ST: Priced like a ball-hawking, sack generating unit… they have topped six fantasy points only three times.

Week 15 Saturday Night Football Lottery Tickets NFL DFS Picks

  1. Ian Thomas: Enjoy the $800 DraftKings price point and hope for a couple targets. The savings is not as good on FanDuel due to his low volume.
  2. Equanimeous St. Brown: Discount Dandy, six targets in his last four games.
  3. Marcedes Lewis: Rodgers goes to the tight end position a lot in the red zone, this makes the 15-year veteran worthy of his own line.
  4. Pharoh Cooper: Not quite Mr. Irrelevant, but close.
  5. Brandon Zylstra, Chris Manhertz, Colin Thompson, Alex Armah, Isaac Nauta, Darrius Shepherd, Malik Taylor, Tyler Ervin, Trenton Cannon: Time to go do some last minute holiday shopping!

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Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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