Greetings, NFL DFS Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo daily fantasy football Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings Showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all of your daily fantasy needs. We have loads of information and NFL DFS picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 15 Thursday Night Football slate between the Los Angeles Chargers and Las Vegas Raiders.
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NFL DFS Picks: Week 15 Thursday Night Football
Los Angeles Chargers: 25.25
Quarterback
This is a fine matchup for the Chargers, who will be facing a Raiders defense that has allowed just over 30 points per game. They are just 2 points better than the Jets and 9 points better than the Cowboys. To put the cherry on top of this matchup, Las Vegas will be without four regular defensive starters, including Clelin Ferrell, Johnathan Abram, Damon Arnette and Nicholas Morrow. Defensive coordinator Paul Guenther was fired after Sunday’s loss to the Colts, so 71-year-old NFL lifer Rod Marinelli will be taking over. All this is to say, remember when rookie Justin Herbert was shut down by Bill Belichick and the Patriots? This is the exact opposite scenario.
For the full slate, Herbert comes in as the Awesemo QB5 on both FanDuel and DraftKings. In eight of his last 10 games, he has multiple touchdowns while topping 300 combined yards in eight of his 12 starts. Las Vegas has allowed opposing signal-callers to top 20fantasy points in eight of 13 games.
Running Back
Austin Ekeler has played 72%, 60% and 60% of the snaps since returning from his hamstring injury that cost him the better part of two months. Kalen Ballage and Justin Jackson have taken most of the remaining snaps in the last two games. We know that Ekeler is heavily involved in the passing game, and he has had nine-plus targets in every game back. His 34 targets in those three outings are nearly three times the dozen that went to the other running backs. The fourth-year running back is also seeing the majority of the carries; in Week 14 he had 14 of 22, Week 13 he had eight of 15 and Week 14 he had 15 of 25.
Ballage looks like the next man up, though it’s hard to tell since Jackson has missed five of the previous six tilts. On DraftKings they are worth a dart throw at $2,400 and $2,000, respectively. On FanDuel the savings is not as dramatic at $7,000 and $7,500, and we would likely need a touchdown for them to have an impact. Even with all of the missing defensive players, the Raiders are still 3-point home favorites. However, there is a decent chance that the Chargers can get out to a lead and lean more on the run against the No. 32 rushing DVOA.
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The Las Vegas passing DVOA comes in at No. 21, but that is still 11 spots higher than its rushing DVOA. Keenan Allen has been peppered by Herbert, posting 10-plus targets in all but two games with the rookie under center. Allen leads the league with 144 targets, and his 99 receptions are behind only the 100 of Stefon Diggs. Furthermore, his nine touchdowns are the seventh most by a receiver. Allen has been managing a tender hamstring but is expected to be able to play through it again.
Eight different Los Angeles receivers and tight ends have caught touchdowns this year, so there are several live secondary options. Additionally, with the Raiders secondary missing Damon Arnette and Johnathan Abram with concussions, and Nevin Lawson missing practice during the short week with an illness, we have a situation to attack.
Mike Williams was pulled from the game in the first quarter last week with a back injury. He has been a limited participant in practice but will likely be a game-time decision. Undrafted rookie Tyron Johnson stepped up to fill the void last week, and he saw a season-high seven targets. While he has just 16 targets on the season, he is viable if you are worried about Williams and, of course, a fine option if the veteran sits.
Jalen Guyton usually gets one or two deep targets a game, and the second-year receiver has a healthy 18 yards per reception with 40 targets for 377 yards and three touchdowns. If Williams is ruled out, K.J. Hill becomes a $200 lynchpin on DraftKings if you are making 25-plus lineups.
Tight Ends
Hunter Henry has played at least 91% of the snaps in six of the last seven games. Despite a perception that he has not been involved in the offense, he had at least seven targets in nine games and 14 combined in the other four. All told, he has seen 86 targets for 55 catches, 548 yards and three touchdowns and is leading the tier just below Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Darren Waller. The reason the fantasy goodness seems low is that the other tight ends have accounted for five touchdowns on a combined 25 targets for just 13 catches and 145 yards. If we are rolling the dice with one of them, it is probably Donald Parham. Just note that he has only five targets in the last four weeks, while the other two tight end targets have gone to Stephen Anderson.
Defense/Special Teams
In their last six games the Raiders have allowed five sacks to Atlanta and three to everyone else combined. Despite having a good defense, the Chargers have just 23 sacks, which is in the bottom third of the league. It is also the same story for their 15 takeaways, though it should be noted that Los Angeles has lost a league-worst 13 fumbles.
Las Vegas Raiders: 28.25
Quarterback
In a surprise twist, Derek Carr is showing signs of life in his seventh season after three disappointing fantasy campaigns. He is on pace to reach the 30-touchdown plateau for the second time a career-high 4,100 yards passing. While it is not eye-popping, the 141 rushing yards and two touchdowns are also career bests. When these teams squared off in Week 9, Carr was 13-for-23 with 165 yards and two touchdowns while leading the Raiders to a 31-26 road victory.
Los Angeles has tightened up the defense, with no quarterbacks topping 250 yards passing since Week 5 and five failing to reach 200 passing yards. However, they have allowed multiple touchdowns to opposing field generals in all but one of those games, but only Drew Lock had more than two.
Wanna bet?
Alex “Awesemo” Baker’s projected stats (part of Awesemo+) have Derek Carr with 249.1 yards passing, which makes the under 264.5 at -112 on OddsShopper an intriguing way to hedge some our DFS lineups. Click on the image below to start shopping for the best edge in betting and check out all the player props available for the Thursday Night Football action between the Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers.
Running Back
Josh Jacobs has topped 65 yards rushing only once in his last five games, but he does have at least three targets in three of them. In these games he also has three touchdowns. The Chargers have the 31st rushing DVOA, so he does deserve some consideration. It should be noted that the Raiders have lost three of their last four games, which has taken them out of their run-first mode.
Despite popping up on the DFS radar a few times this season, Devontae Booker has been pedestrian from a volume standpoint. He is averaging 4.9 yards per carry but has topped eight carries only twice this season. One of those times was in Week 13 when Jacobs was out with an ankle injury. While he has had at least three targets in two of the last three games, those are also the only times he has done that since the season opener.
Jalen Richard is now lurking and getting the passing-down work since he is finally close to full health. Alec Ingold will be on the field for 17-25% of the snaps, but on the season he has just two carries and 16 targets.
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Wide Receiver
Henry Ruggs has been placed on the COVID-19 reserve list, so we need to be watchful for any other Raiders having positive tests. In true 2020 fashion, somehow Philadelphia castoff Nelson Agholor has become the bona fide WR1 for Las Vegas. His seven touchdowns are tied with Darren Waller for the team lead, and he has a healthy 16.7 yards per reception.
Hunter Renfrow is the second-leading receiver, and while he has just two touchdowns, he has turned his 63 targets into 47 receptions for 594 yards, and Carr looks his way often on quick passes. Just know he will likely be covered by slot cornerback Chris Harris Jr.., who has been solid this season.
With Ruggs out, Zay Jones and rookie Bryan Edwards pop back onto the radar, particularly in the single-game format. It is hard to tell which is better, as they have both been well down the pecking order. My preference is Jones, who was also with the Raiders last season and at least he has a journeyman presence.
Tight End
Waller is technically the Raiders WR1, but it was more fun to bestow that mantle to Nelson Agholor. Waller is eighth in the league with 117 targets, seventh with 84 receptions and just outside of the top 10 with seven touchdowns. Last week, Foster Moreau saw his first two targets in six games and lucked his way into a 47-yard touchdown. Jason Witten is getting a target every other game, though he generally out-snaps Moreau and is on the field around a third of the time.
Defense/Special Teams
The Chargers are allowing 2.2 sacks per game, but it has been steady, with multiple sacks ceded in all but two games. The Raiders are second to last with just 15 sacks, and they are near the bottom with just 15 takeaways.
Thursday Night DraftKings Showdown + FanDuel Single Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and also for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those of you who are taking the MME approach, remember that correlation with your lineups is key. This means matching a receiver or two if you have a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their signal-caller.
NOTABLE INACTIVES: LAC Justin Jackson, Joe Reed LV Defensive players Clelin Ferrell, Damon Arnette, Johnathan Abrams, Nevin Lawson, Nicholas Morrow.
NOTABLE ACTIVES: LAC Keenan Allen and Mike Williams who will be on an undetermined snap count, LV Josh Jacobs.
EMac’s Week 15 Thursday Night Football DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Rankings
Week 15 Thursday Night Football Top 10 NFL DFS Picks
- Derek Carr: The slightest of nods goes to the Raider quarterback.
- Austin Ekeler: We know he is adept in all facets of the game.
- Keenan Allen: The volume has been amazing, and he brings a nice combination of consistency with upside. Keenan Allen and Mike Williams will be on an undetermined snap count. This all depends on your risk/reward tolerance. My inclination is to play about one-third of what I was intending to roll out with Allen, I was not planning on playing Williams who left early in the last game with a back injury.
- Justin Herbert: Depending on your risk tolerance with a rookie making his 13th start, he is worthy of the top slot.
- Darren Waller: Slightly cheaper than Jacobs on FanDuel, and the full-PPR scoring on DraftKings gives him the nod over Jacobs.
- Hunter Renfrow: We need the discount, and he gets a slight target share boost with Ruggs out.
- Michael Badgley/Daniel Carlson: Kickers are often in Showdown-winning lineups.
- Josh Jacobs: This could absolutely come back and bite me. However, in his last seven games he has topped 75 yards twice, with four total touchdowns. By no means am I saying do not play him, but I will be under the field.
- Nelson Agholor: Ahead of Waller on DraftKings, but below on FanDuel.
- Hunter Henry: The opportunities have been there; it has been the touchdowns that have gone elsewhere.
Week 15 Thursday Night Football Secondary NFL DFS Picks
- Mike Williams: If we knew he was 90% healthy, he would land above the kickers in the Top 10 section. On an undetermined snap count with a back injury.
- Jalen Guyton/Tyron Johnson: If Williams is out, they are both viable. If Williams plays, I prefer Guyton. With both Allen and Williams active playing just one of these guys per lineup seems best.
- Kalen Ballage: Likely still has the edge over Jackson. In the right scenario there could be mop-up duty.
- Zay Jones: Jumps up the rankings with Ruggs on the COVID-19 reserve list. Personal preference, I wouldn’t fight anyone if they wanted to swap Jones and Edwards. This is a DraftKings-only recommendation, and we don’t know which is starting as of Wednesday night.
- Devontae Booker: While I prefer the significant savings on DraftKings, I can see him in the 35th lineup on FanDuel builds.
Week 15 Thursday Night Football Lottery Tickets NFL DFS Picks
- Los Angeles D/ST: Not much to see here, as they are more of a bend-don’t-break unit.
- Las Vegas D/ST: We are banking on a touchdown, but the price is right. Keep in mind the most we can lose is 4 fantasy points for offensive points allowed.
- Bryan Edwards: Hard to trust the rookie with six targets in his last four games. If he starts for Ruggs, swap him with Jones.
- Jalen Richard: More intriguing on DraftKings with the full PPR.
- Justin Jackson: Returned last week after missing more than a month. After Ekeler, who knows what coach Anthony Lynn will do.
- Donald Parham: Does just enough to get his own line.
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