Greetings, NFL DFS Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo daily fantasy football Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings Showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, we will be providing free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all of your daily fantasy needs. We have loads of information and NFL DFS picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Week 16 Monday Night Football slate between the Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots.
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NFL DFS Picks: Week 16 Sunday Night Football
Buffalo Bills: 26.5
We have seen the Bills win two different short slates in Millionaire Maker contests on DraftKings with a full Buffalo onslaught. It will be fun to see if they can continue their momentum. With everyone playing next Sunday, there will be no short slate action — but we of course will have single-game contests.
Buffalo holds the tiebreaker over the Steelers with their Week 14 victory, however they do need to win tonight stay in in line for a first round bye. Let’s get to the fun.
Quarterback
Josh Allen has taken the step to the next level among quarterbacks. In his first 28 games, he had 30 touchdowns and 21 interceptions. He was still outstanding for fantasy purposes because he also rushed for 17 touchdowns. This season, through 14 games, he has 30 touchdowns passing and eight more on the ground. The nine interceptions are still concerning, though he has just two in his last four games.
While he has multiple touchdowns in 12 of 14 games, New England kept him in check in Buffalo for their Week 8 matchup. Bill Belichick and the defense held him with no touchdowns passing and just 54 yards, though he did have 23 yards and a score on the ground.
In their last four games, the patriots have allowed opposing quarterbacks an average of 21.3 completions on 34.5 attempts for 165.3 yards with one total passing touchdown against five interceptions. This collection of quarterbacks did have three rushing touchdowns, but Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, Justin Herbert and Kyler Murray were certainly held in check.
Never Miss An Active/Inactive Ever Again Don't get burned by a player being ruled out last minute, use our New NFL Depth Charts page to see starting lineups and inactive players for every team.Running Back
Over the last eight weeks, Devin Singletary and rookie Zack Moss have basically split the snaps down the middle. T.J. Yeldon is going to miss the next two weeks on the COVID-19 reserve list, which means Moss and Singletary potentially could be out as well depending on testing and close contact tracing (this news came out Sunday evening, so it is still a developing story). Reggie Gilliam is out with a hamstring injury, so we likely will see Taiwan Jones active. Jones has played only three offensive snaps this season.
If either Moss or Singletary is out, the other becomes a fine option. If both are in, then the lean is towards Singletary, who sees more targets (11 versus four in the last month) and still gets about half of the carries. They are essentially the same price on both DraftKings and FanDuel, so personal preference should be your tiebreaker.
Wide Receiver
Stefon Diggs and Cole Beasley have cornered the target market share and both have seen double-digit opportunities in four of their last five games. They have each scored twice in this stretch and had at least 93 yards in three of the five tilts. We get a $2,500 discount on FanDuel for Beasley while on DraftKings it is only $1,000. Rookie Gabriel Davis usually sees a handful of targets, but he has managed to in four of the last six weeks. John Brown (ankle) is still out though there is a chance he could be activated for the game. If he remains out Isaiah McKenzie should see a dozen or so routes and one or two targets, providing an extreme punt option on DraftKings at $800.
Tight End
Over the last four games, Dawson Knox has 16 targets for 99 yards and three touchdowns, while Lee Smith has three targets with one reception for 3 yards. With H-Back Reggie Gilliam (hamstring) out, it is likely that Tyler Kroft will be active for the first time in weeks. In his six games he has seen 16 targets for 119 yards and three touchdowns, and if he is active, give him a look as a viable punt option in all formats.
Defense/Special Teams
New England has allowed nine sacks in the last two games, though on the year they are ceding just over two per game, which is about league average. They also have committed 19 turnovers, which is also middle of the pack. Buffalo is fourth in the league with 22 takeaways, and they are averaging almost 2.5 sacks per contest.
New England Patriots: 19.5
Quarterback
This has been a rough season for the Patriots, who have been eliminated from post season contention. Cam Newton is averaging 183.2 passing yards per game, which is ahead of only Sam Darnold, Andy Dalton and Tua Tagovailoa, who have each been benched and/or suffered mid-game injuries. Newton could be replaced by Jarrett Stidham if he is not effective, but this is not a recommendation to look for that potential contingency.
Newton has rushed for 11 touchdowns and 489 yards on 112 carries, though only two of those scores have come in the last five games. However, in four of his last six games he has failed to exceed 120 passing yards. On the full season he has five touchdowns passing against 10 interception. There is a lot of risk with this play.
Running Back
Damien Harris (ankle) was limited in practice, but he may be active for Monday Night Football. Keep in mind that Sony Michel is back and both still have to contend with Newton taking the lion’s share of carries. Fullback Jakob Johnson will play 20-30% of the snaps, but he doesn’t have a single carry on the season and has just nine total targets.
James White has not had more than five carries in a single game, and he has just 31 carries for 107 yards and two touchdowns on the ground this season. He will likely get a handful of targets, but in his last four games he has topped 2 receiving yards only once.
Wide Receiver
Julian Edelman could return on Monday night or next week, as he has been activated to practice after missing the bulk of the season with a knee injury. At this point it seems like that is just additional risk for the 34-year-old veteran. Only Baltimore has attempted fewer passes than the Patriots, so there is not much fantasy goodness to go around.
Jakobi Meyers is the first choice, but he has averaged just 6.0 targets over the last five games. In this stretch, Damiere Byrd also has averaged 6.0, while N’Keal Harry has seen 4.9 per appearance.
Tight End
Ryan Izzo is on the injured reserve, and in the two games he has missed, Devin Asiasi has his only two targets of the season and Dalton Keene has had two of his three. There is not much to see here as these guys are mostly blockers at this point.
Defense/Special Teams
In their last five games, Buffalo has given up just six sacks. They are in the middle of the pack with 1.5 turnovers per game (nine interceptions and 11 fumbles total). New England has 20 takeaways, though they are in the bottom five with only 21 sacks this year.
Sunday Night DraftKings Showdown + FanDuel Single Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and also for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those of you who are taking the MME approach, remember that correlation with your lineups is key. This means matching a receiver or two if you have a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their signal-caller.
EMac’s Week 16 Monday Night Football DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Rankings
Week 16 Monday Night Football Top 10 NFL DFS Picks
- Josh Allen:Â Yes, this is not an easy matchup, but the rushing upside helps to offset that.
- Stefon Diggs: Leads the league in targets, receptions and is just 4 yards shy of Travis Kelce for the yardage title.
- Cole Beasley:Â He is spendy, but he has been worth it.
- Jakobi Meyers: It would almost be beneficial for Newton to be relieved by Stidham.
- Isaiah McKenzie: As long as Brown isn’t a surprise active, we need savings. Update: there is a chance Brown may be active, he is $2,800 on DraftKings and the minimum $5,000 on FanDuel. We will need to keep tabs on his status and any potential playing limitiations.
- Tyler Bass/Nick Folk: Keeping the kicker top-10 streak going.
- Cam Newton:Â Could be an overreaction on my part, but with the Patriots having just two games left, it makes sense that they would turn to Stidham at some point, even if Newton starts.
- Devin Singletary/Zack Moss:Â Keep an eye on the COVID-19 news with running back T.J. Yeldon already ruled out. If one of this duo is out, move the other ahead of Meyers. If both are in, they are fine right here, but I don’t want to play them together.
- Tyler Kroft: DraftKings only, but if he is active, the savings can be used on upgrades.
- Gabriel Davis:Â No longer cheap and not getting enough volume to support this price. He needs to score.
Week 16 Monday Night Football Secondary NFL DFS Picks
- Damiere Byrd:Â If Stidham were starting, I would move Byrd up above the kickers.
- Sony Michel: Only interesting if Damien Harris is out again.
- N’Keal Harry:Â Cheaper than the Patriots running backs and has a similar fantasy projection.
- James White:Â Just not seeing much volume in the passing game, but would benefit if Stidham plays.
- Damien Harris: Priced like he is getting the entire RB1 workload, which he is not.
Week 16 Monday Night Football Lottery Tickets NFL DFS Picks
- Buffalo/New England D/STs:Â Not particularly enticing. We get a much better price on the Patriots.
- Jarrett Stidham: If he draws the start, he moves up to Newton’s ranking slot in the top 10.
- Dalton Keene/Devin Asiasi:Â New England is averaging just over two targets per game to tight ends.
- Lee Smith:Â If Kroft is not active, Smith moves to the top of this section.
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