Greetings, NFL DFS Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo NFL DFS Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings Showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all of your daily fantasy needs. We have loads to get into on this Sunday Night Football slate with the Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers, including thoughts on George Kittle, Robert Woods and more NFL DFS picks for your NFL DFS lineups.
Ben Rasa's Bet of the DayAwesemo's sports betting expert Ben Rasa pours over the day's betting lines and breaks down the best bet of the day for you to build your sports betting card around.
NFL DFS Picks: Sunday Night Football | Rams at 49ers +3.0 | O/U 51.5
Los Angeles Rams: 27.25
In a fun twist, Jared Goff has been solid in his last four outings with multiple touchdowns and 280-plus combined yards in three of those appearances. The 49ers defense is pretty banged up with Richard Sherman, Dontae Johnson, Solomon Thomas, Kwon Alexander, Mark Nzeocha, Dee Ford, Jullian Taylor, Ezekiel Ansah and Ronald Blair all out. Defensive backs Marcell Harris and Emmanuel Moseley are questionable. So many gamers have soured on Goff that he actually may be overlooked, even on a single-game slate.
The one thing to keep in mind and it caught me off guard as well is that Sean McVay is overseeing an offense with the second-lowest percentage of passing plays in the league. Los Angeles (48.48%) is ahead of only Cleveland’s 48.35% passing rate.
This is where things get interesting, but please do not go crazy. After missing Weeks 2 and 3, Cam Akers saw just 19% of the snaps in Week 5. Malcolm Brown and Darrell Henderson were the co-leaders with each being on the field around 40% of the time. Henderson saw about 60-70% of the work with Akers and Brown each with an equal share of the remainder. This is a fluid situation that is best left for others to take the risk on FanDuel. DraftKings has made things interesting with significant salary disparity between Henderson ($7,600), Akers ($2,000) and Brown ($1,600). Even with all of their injuries on defense, the 49ers still have the sixth-best rushing DVOA.
Like most, I thought with Brandin Cooks on the Texans, things would have solidified with Robert Woods and Cooper Kupp surging ahead of the other receiving options. Indeed they are the top two targets on the team, but Kupp is seeing 7.1 targets and Woods is at 6.1 which are not exactly the eye-popping opportunities we were expecting this year. Over the last three games, Josh Reynolds is seeing 4.3 targets while Van Jefferson is a complete afterthought with just a total of two in those games.
So far Tyler Higbee has nearly double the targets of Gerald Everett, 17-to-9. Unfortunately for those who are rolling with Higbee in Best Ball and season-long formats, he has been disappointing with 15 catches for 166 yards and three touchdowns against Everett’s eight catches for 141 yards. The annoying part is that all three of Higbee’s scores came back in Week 2 against the Eagles. On FanDuel, it makes more sense to go with the discount provided by Everett if you are looking at either tight end as a viable option. On DraftKings it is much closer, and Higbee out-snapping Everett nearly two-to-one makes him the preferred choice.
In their last two games (Dolphins and Eagles), the 49ers have allowed twin stat lines of five sacks, two interceptions and a fumble recovery. Last week, while Jimmy Garoppolo returned from injury, he was benched for C.J. Beathard after throwing two interceptions and with the team down three scores. The Rams are tied for the league lead with 20 sacks, and they also have four picks and two fumble recoveries.
San Francisco 49ers: 25.0
In a surprising twist with a bad beat ending, Garoppolo was actually benched for Beathard at halftime. On tap Sunday is a matchup against the Rams, who boast the third-best passing DVOA. For a team that prefers the run, the 49ers are 14th in the league passing on 60.25% of their plays. Obviously, a healthy George Kittle does wonders for the San Francisco signal-callers, but after that we have Deebo Samuel working back from an injury and the inexperienced rookie Brandon Aiyuk.
Raheem Mostert returned after missing two games, and he led the backfield with 48% of the snaps. Jerick McKinnon (25%) and Jeff Wilson (23%) chipped in as well. Kyle Juszczyk was on the field for a third of the snaps as a blocker, but in fine 2020 fashion, he scored the lone rushing touchdown on one of his two carries.
As long as he is healthy, Mostert will see around 60% of the opportunities with McKinnon the next man up. Wilson is always lurking as a red zone threat and last year he had a pair of two-touchdown games.
In his second game back, Deebo Samuel played on 89% of the snaps, and he tied George Kittle with a team-leading eight targets. Though he has turned his 11 targets into just five catches for 54 yards, seeing him on the field frequently should give us confidence. Rookie Brandon Aiyuk and veteran Kendrick Bourne had six and four targets, respectively. Bourne is the cheapest of this trio on both FanDuel and DraftKings, making him a fine salary-relief option.
Despite missing two games, Kittle leads the team with 28 targets. He is the de facto WR1 on this offense and should once again flirt with double-digit targets. While Los Angeles has kept opposing tight ends in check, Zach Ertz, Evan Engram and Dallas Goedert are not in the same class as Kittle.
The Rams have done a good job protecting Jared Goff via play calling as well as their pass protection. They have allowed just seven sacks through five games and have suffered six total takeaways. The 49ers are more of a dart throw in the hopes of a splash play tonight.
Sunday Night Football Showdown + Single Game Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and also for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those of you who are taking the MME approach, remember that correlation with your lineups is key. This means matching a receiver or two if you have a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their signal-caller.
EMac’s Sunday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings
Notable Offensive Inactives: SF C.J. Beathard, Jeff Wilson, Dante Pettis LAR: Raymond Calais, Trishton Jackson, Brycen Hopkins
Sunday Night Football Top 10
- George Kittle: On FanDuel there is merit to considering one of the quarterbacks for the MVP designation.
- Raheem Mostert: Though he will have the majority of the opportunities, that is still going to be around 60%. We are paying top dollar for his services.
- Jimmy Garoppolo: Unless he is harboring some sort of injury, we have to give him the benefit of the doubt despite the tough matchup.
- Jared Goff: It is still mind boggling that Sean McVay is calling runs at a 51.5% clip. While Goff is attempting 30.4 passes per game, that is 26th among starting quarterbacks.
- Robert Woods: This is my preferred Rams option. On DraftKings we get a bit of a discount, which makes it a clearer choice.
- Sam Sloman/Robbie Gould: While they would not be in the multiplier slot, they are fine Flex options.
- Kendrick Bourne: Salary saving is key.
- Cooper Kupp: Again, I would not fight anyone if they swapped Kupp and Woods rankings. Kupp is the lead punt returner.
- Deebo Samuel: He is going to figure into my plans prominently, but I would be at 10-20 lineups before making him the Captain/MVP.
- Josh Reynolds: Cheap and a better choice than the Rams tight ends.
Sunday Night Football Secondary NFL DFS Plays
- Jerick McKinnon: DraftKings is giving him a heavy discount, and if you have a high risk tolerance, you could slot him in over Bourne in the section above. FanDuel has him priced like an RB1, and he could easily be behind the Rams three-headed monster.
- Darrell Henderson: The easy play from the Rams backfield on FanDuel.
- Malcolm Brown/Cam Akers: With their savings on DraftKings, they are worth the risk over Henderson.
- Los Angeles D/ST: San Francisco is a disaster right now.
- Tyler Higbee: Scored all three of his touchdowns in Week 2, has been an afterthought outside of that game.
Sunday Night Football Lottery Tickets
- Gerald Everett: Anyone is live to score for the Rams, and he has not been that far behind Higbee the last two weeks.
C.J. Beathard: Priced like a starting quarterback, but it is 2020. Jeff Wilson: Dealing with a calf injury.
- San Francisco D/ST: The lack of passing plays by Los Angeles keeps fantasy opportunities to a minimum.
- Kyle Juszczyk: Meh.
- Van Jefferson: Double meh.
- Ross Dwelley, Dante Pettis, Johnny Mundt, Trent Taylor, Raymond Calais, Nsimba Webster: Hard pass.
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