Greetings, NFL DFS Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo daily fantasy football Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings Showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Sunday Night Football, Monday Night Football and Thursday Night Football slates, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all of your daily fantasy needs. We have loads of information and NFL DFS picks to get into on this Thursday Night Football slate between the Atlanta Falcons at the Carolina Panthers.
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NFL DFS Picks: Week 8 Thursday Night Football | Falcons vs Panthers -2.5 | O/U 51.5
Atlanta Falcons: 24.5
Quarterback
For the full week Awesemo has Matt Ryan as a middle-of-the-pack option on both FanDuel and DraftKings. However, on Thursday night he becomes a much more prominent option in the DFS world. Carolina has been solid against opposing signal-callers from a fantasy perspective. Justin Herbert (330) and Drew Brees (287) are the only quarterbacks to top 240 passing yards. Brees, Kyler Murray and Nick Foles are the only quarterbacks with multiple touchdowns. When these teams met in Atlanta during Week 5, the Panthers kept Ryan in check allowing just 226 passing yards with one interception.
Things have turned around the last two weeks for Atlanta, with that Week 5 dismantling at the hands of these Panthers ultimately leading to the firing of head coach Dan Quinn and general manager Thomas Dimitroff. The Falcons got their first victory in Week 6 and would have won last week if not for a late game miscue by Todd Gurley, who scored from short distance rather than going down and allowing the clock to run. Detroit capped off an improbable last-minute touchdown drive to steal the game by 1 point.
It sounds like all of the pass catchers should be healthy, which is what we want to hear when selecting Ryan. There is some strategy here, as he could be a consolidating option in the passing game if he spreads the touchdowns around.
Wanna bet?
Alex “Awesemo” Baker’s projected stats (part of Awesemo+) have Teddy Bridgewater projected for a healthy 306.0 yards passing tonight, making the 284.5 UNDER at -115 on OddsShopper a solid deal. Click on the image below to start shopping for the best edge in betting and check out all the player props available for tonight’s Thursday Night Football game between the Panthers and Falcons.
Running Back
In the Week 5 matchup, Gurley posted his best stat line of the season with 14 carries for 121 yards and a touchdown and turning five targets into four catches for 29 yards. The Panthers have been a bottom five rushing DVOA most of the season and we can pick on them again Thursday. Somehow in an odd 2020 twist, Gurley is fourth in the league with 17.4 rushing attempts per game and at least 14 in every appearance. Brian Hill has chipped in with a dozen carries the last two weeks, and Ito Smith has a pair.
Wide Receiver
Remember back to Week 4, when we had the Monday Night doubleheader and Calvin Ridley turned five targets into zero fantasy points? Even with that game, he is second in the league with his six touchdowns, and his 615 yards are third. Julio Jones is dealing with a hip issue but is expected to play. Jones did not play in the Week 5 matchup against Carolina, and in the two games since, he has tallied 19 targets for 16 catches, 234 yards and two touchdowns against Minnesota and Detroit. Russell Gage (knee) should be good to go, and he is continuing to chug along with 16 targets in the last three games.
Tight End
Hayden Hurst has filled in nicely for Austin Hooper so far this season. The former Raven is averaging 5.7 targets over the last four games for an average of 4.0 receptions and 46.0 yards with one touchdown. He has three scores on the season. Luke Stocker and Jaeden Graham have combined for five targets.
Defense/Special Teams
Carolina allowed five sacks in Week 2 against the Buccaneers and four in Week 6 against the Bears. In their other five games, they allowed five total sacks. Atlanta has managed only 10 sacks and eight turnovers. We are looking for a big play for this unit to be a difference maker on Thursday.
Carolina Panthers: 27.0
Quarterback
Teddy Bridgewater is coming in as the fifth-best quarterback in the Awesemo projections for the full-slate. The Falcons have been dreadful against the pass and have the 30th passing DVOA. This has been a common theme for the last few seasons, and nothing seems to have changed for the better. Every team except for one has seen their starting quarterback roll up at least 300 passing yards. The Bears had a combined 320 from starter Mitchell Trubisky and his replacement Nick Foles.
Running Back
Christian McCaffrey has missed the last five games with a high ankle sprain. First he needs to be activated from the injured reserve, and then he needs to be active for the game. It makes sense if the first happens, so will the second. McCaffrey is rightfully at the top of the pricing list on DraftKings and FanDuel. If he is active, there are no assurances on his workload and we know that the Panthers are more interested in a top draft pick than a playoff appearance.
Mike Davis has been outstanding filling in for McCaffrey. If McCaffrey is active, Davis’ value takes a big hit. Otherwise he is a fine option with his ability to contribute in all facets of the game. While the Falcons have not allowed any opposing running back to top 100 rushing yards, four have had at least five receptions. This includes Davis, who had 16 carries for 89 yards and nine catches for 60 yards and touchdown in this Week 5 matchup.
Wide Receiver
Robby Anderson and D.J. Moore are the co-WR1s in this offense. A slight edge goes to Anderson for the consistently higher target volume, and he is just as explosive of a play maker as Moore despite the stats indicating otherwise. During his time with the Jets, we know that Anderson is efficient with his big plays, and now that he is with Carolina, he is getting more volume. On DraftKings the choice is easy with Moore getting a $1,ooo discount. Over on FanDuel the roles reverse with Anderson coming in $1,000 less. Curtis Samuel is really the only other viable wide receiver.
Tight End
This position is a quicksand trap for the Panthers. On the season Ian Thomas has 12 targets with one each of the last three weeks. Chris Manhertz has only five. Despite averaging just over 40% of the snaps the last three weeks he has zero, two and zero targets during that time frame.
Defense/Special Teams
Atlanta is ceding about two sacks a game this season with only six turnovers. The Panthers are the worst team in the league with just half a dozen sacks through seven games along with eight takeaways. There is not much to see here.
Thursday Night Football Showdown + Single Game NFL DFS Strategy
The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and also for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those of you who are taking the MME approach, remember that correlation with your lineups is key. This means matching a receiver or two if you have a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their signal-caller.
EMac’s Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Rankings
Notable Inactives: ATL Ito Smith, OT John Wetzel; CAR OT Russell Okung, DT Zach Kerr, G Mike Horton
Thursday Night Football Top 10 NFL DFS Picks
- Mike Davis: As long as McCaffrey is inactive as expected, I am comfortable with Davis as my top option. We may have some rain and wind in the game window.
- Robby Anderson/D.J. Moore: Take the discount on your site of choice. This duo is top 10 in targets and receptions and top 15 for receiving yards among wide receivers playing at least six games.
- Todd Gurley: The volume is there at a nice price. The only concern is the short week for his knees.
- Teddy Bridgewater: Just two games with 20 fantasy points, but he warrants Captain/MVP consideration depending on your preferred roster build.
- Matt Ryan: Three games with 24 fantasy points, three with less than 15. Your mileage may vary.
- Russell Gage: This is purely for salary relief, but he does have a solid 6.14 targets per game this season.
- Younghoe Koo and Joey Slye: Discounted and playing in a likely high-scoring affair.
- Calvin Ridley/Julio Jones: It is possible for simultaneous good fantasy performances, but not likely. Hard to play both or choose just one.
- Hayden Hurst: Controls all of the opportunities for the position. Fair but not great price point.
- Curtis Samuel: Really needs a touchdown to justify a top-10 slot. Last week he scored his first of the season. Favorable price keeps him ahead of our next section.
Thursday Night Football Secondary NFL DFS Picks
- Brian Hill: Will get most of the looks not given to Gurley. Decent salary saver.
- Carolina D/ST: Slight edge for being at home, fans are limited to 7% capacity tonight.
- Atlanta D/ST: These are two of the least exciting defenses in the league.
Thursday Night Football Lottery Tickets NFL DFS Picks
- Trenton Cannon: Essentially the only backup Carolina running back behind Davis.
Ito Smith: Clear third wheel in the Atlanta backfield, likely will get 2-3 touches without an in-game injury to Gurley or Hill.- Ian Thomas: We need a lucky red zone look, as there is no volume going his way.
- Brandon Powell: DraftKings only. Looks like the WR4 with a rock-bottom price and may truly have slipped ahead of our next pair.
- Olamide Zaccheaus and Christian Blake: Seeing snaps in the 8-10% range. Targets are a different story.
- Chris Manhertz: Desperation punt, but still worthy of his own line.
- Pharoh Cooper, Keith Smith, Luke Stocker, Jaeden Graham, Alex Armah and Brandon Zylstra: Time to go buy an actual lottery ticket.
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