NFL DFS Prime Time Showdown: Wild Card Weekend Saturday Night Football Tampa Bay at Washington | DraftKings + FanDuel

Greetings, NFL DFS Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo daily fantasy football Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings Showdown slates. Much like for the regular season “primetime” games, we will be providing free analysis for the single-slate nightcap playoff action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all of your daily fantasy needs. We have loads of information and NFL DFS picks to get into for both DraftKings and FanDuel on this Wild Card Weekend Saturday Night Football game between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Washington Football Team.

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NFL DFS Picks: Wild Card Saturday DraftKings + FanDuel

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 26.75

We have a plethora of injury news that should not cause us any issues for the single game slate, unlike playing the Saturday or the full-weekend slates, we have the luxury of only dealing with two teams in our player pool. There are injury questions and uncertainty for each time in our nightcap, however that will be addressed below. For just the second time in NFL history, we have a team with a losing record hosting a playoff game. On last hurrah from 2020 if you will.

Quarterback

While the 43-year old veteran of 21 NFL seasons is entering the playoffs for 18th time it will not be with homefield advantage. Yes, he is with a new team and he is familiar with playing in cold weather, Saturday night’s action will take place in an empty stadium in sub-40 degree weather.

This has been a statistical masterpiece of a season for Tom Brady. He is third in the league with 4,633 passing yards and checks in with the second most touchdowns with 40. That figure ties him with Russell Wilson and is behind only the 48 of Aaron Rodgers. Washington has been outstanding against the pass with the second best DVOA per FootballOutsiders. However, they have not faced many teams as loaded as the Pewter Pirates while languishing in the NFC East. In the last eleven weeks only Ben Roethlisberger (305) and Matthew Stafford (276) have topped 260 passing yards. In those same eleven games only two opposing field generals have marshaled more than one touchdown.

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Running Back

Over their last eleven games, Washington has allowed only D’Andre Swift (81) to surpass 70 rushing yards. In this timeframe they have ceded four rushing and two receiving scores to the position. This has culminated in the 11th best rushing DVOA and we know that coach Ron Rivera is looking to let the clock run, which makes trusting the Tampa Bay rushing game risky.

On FanDuel, there is no price break for Ronald Jones potentially sharing work with Leonard Fournette with his $12,500 salary. The discount there to Fournette with the $3.500 savings becomes intriguing, though workload is a big question mark. On DraftKings the $2,600 savings is even more proportionally pronounced as is the full-PPR scoring format.

While Jones is only five targets behind Fournette on the season (47 vs. 42), he has not seen a pass headed his way since Week 14. In the three subsequent games, Fournette has 2, 3 and 5 targets. LeSean McCoy and Ke’Shawn Vaughn are lottery tickets at best with the Tampa twosome healthy.

Wide Receiver

The main question we are waiting on will be with regards to Mike Evans and his hyper-extended knee injury. For the single game slate, we will know his availability prior to kickoff, though his effectiveness if he plays will be a question mark. With so many receiving options available for Tompa Bay it doesn’t make sense to roll Evans out as just a decoy.

To me it seems silly to risk Evans in our fantasy lineups, even if he is active. Ten different receivers have connected with Tom Terrific for touchdowns, so why would Tampa risk things in what should be a winnable game. Evans did get in some light practice work, but I will heading down the conservative path.

Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown are more of a coinflip when trying to decipher which has the edge. Brown has essentially been the Bucs leading receiver from a target perspective since coming out of purgatory. Godwin is not that far behind, though he would seem to be the biggest beneficiary if Evans is limited in any fashion. Scott Miller and Tyler Johnson are large field lottery tickets or salary relief options who may see a couple targets tops unless Tampa is behind AND Evans is out.

Tight End

This has been a solid showing by future Hall of Fame tight end Rob Gronkowski. While he is not the same player from his New England glory days, he has been solid as both a receiver and a blocker as he has rounded into shape this season. He is third on the team for targets, receptions and yards and second for receiving scores. Over the last eight weeks he has 37 targets with veteran Cameron Brate seeing 19 and the rest of the tight ends accounting for two. Brate is easily the tournament pivot as The Masses will be looking to cash in on sentimental post season times. This is not a Gronk fade, this is a Gronk pivot.

Defense/Special Teams

Despite seemingly starting a million quarterbacks, one thing is consistent with the Washington Football Team. They give up sacks in bunches! In every game this year they have allowed at least two sacks and their 50 is behind only the 65 ceded by Philadelphia. The Buccaneers have fourth most sacks with 48 and are fifth with 25 takeaways. Washington allows the fourth most turnovers which along with their inability to protect their signal-caller makes the TB/DST very viable in tournaments.


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Washington Football Team: 18.75

Quarterback

This is going to be a tall order for 15-year veteran Alex Smith who is questionable with a calf injury. Fortunately in the single game format, we will know what we are dealing with. At this time it is expected that Smith will start with Taylor Heinicke once again serving as the backup. SATURDAY MORNING UPDATE: Some news is coming out indicating that Smith is at risk of playing and even if he plays this could be a quarterback by committee.

Tampa Bay has the best rushing DVOA, the fifth best passing DVOA and arguably a top three defense by any metric we can conjure. Y-E-S, yes they certainly do have a “funnel” passing defense, but with all of their many dinged up players can we expect Washington to do more than just consistently move the chains?

By most projection metrics, Smith is ahead of only part-time quarterback Taysom Hill for the full six-game slate. My best guess is that that Washington leans on the run and in the cold weather we see Smith with around 200-ish passing yards. I am setting the aerial touchdown line at 1.5 and I am comfortable taking the under.

Running Back

The second GIGANTIC question mark for Washington begins with their running backs. Rookie Antonio Gibson has been limited by turf toe and we all know that is an injury that both lingers and easily flares up. Last week he played 37 of 63 (59%) snaps while J.D. McKissic played 28 (44%) and Peyton Barber saw six (10%). Gibson led the way with 19/75/0 on the ground with Barber 4/10/0 and McKissic 2/0/0 barely chipping in. On the passing side of things it was McKissic with eight targets for 5/30/0 while Gibson caught his only opportunity for six yards.

Tampa Bay has the best rushing DVOA in the league and over the last four weeks they are allowing just over 100 combined yards to the position. On DraftKings I prefer McKissic for the discount and in the full-PPR scoring system. FanDuel it is reversed and I would be comfortable paying the premium for Gibson where touchdowns are weighted more heavily than receptions.

Wide Receiver

While it is easier to pass on the Buccaneers than it is to run, again they have the fifth best passing DVOA so this is not a gimme. After missing one game with a high ankle sprain, Terry McLaurin returned to play 81% of the snaps. For perspective he typically is on the field for 95% of the plays. He saw eight targets for 7/40/1 and again has been limited in practice this week.

Cam Sims is a viable option and he has played every snap over the last two weeks. He brought in all five of his targets for 43 yards on Sunday Night Football. Steven Sims Jr (no relation) saw just one target for six yards though he had a carry for 18 yards as well. No other receivers were targeted on Smiths 32 pass attempts.

Tight End

Last week Logan Thomas again continued his solid play seeing six targets for 3/37/1 helping Washington best Philadelphia. Since the Week 8 bye, the former Virginia Tech quarterback has seen all but one target for this position.

Defense/Special Teams

Tampa has ceded nine sacks in their last seven games while suffering half a dozen turnovers. Washington was sixth in the league with nearly three sacks per game. They were seventh with 23 takeaways. Setting the line at 3.5 combined sacks+turnovers feels about right.

Wild Card Weekend Saturday Night DraftKings Showdown + FanDuel Single Game NFL DFS Strategy

The rankings below are best utilized for building out single-entry and three-max lineups and also for head-to-head and three-man formats. They provide a nice barometer for player value, but for those of you who are taking the MME approach, remember that correlation with your lineups is key. This means matching a receiver or two if you have a quarterback in the Captain/MVP slot. This also works conversely with pairing a Captain/MVP pass catcher with their signal-caller.

EMac’s Wild Card Weekend Saturday Night Football DraftKings + FanDuel NFL DFS Rankings

Wild Card Weekend Saturday Night Football Top 10 NFL DFS Picks

  1. Tom Brady: The “safest” and most popular option.
  2. Ronald Jones: Reasonable price tag and he is healthy.
  3. Antonio Brown: Getting closer to the “old” AB each week.
  4. J.D. McKissic/Antonio Gibson: I am comfortable playing both in the same lineup as a flex, but would prefer just one per roster where they are the Captain/MVP.
  5. Logan Thomas: Steady option for Washington regardless of the quarterback.
  6. Alex Smith: If he were at full health I would have ranked him right behind Brady.
  7. Chris Godwin: In the event Evans is inactive, Godwin moves up to Brown’s line.
  8. Terry McLaurin: This price is about 25-30% too high considering his ankle injury.
  9. Cam Sims: At least he should be on the field for every snap.
  10. Ryan Succop/Dustin Hopkins: Woo Hoo, Kickers!

Wild Card Weekend Saturday Night Football Secondary NFL DFS Picks

  1. Mike Evans: Hyper extended his knee last week, seems like a big risk if he plays.
  2. Rob Gronkowski: More than two receptions in just two of his last eight games – four touchdowns shows upside.
  3. Leonard Fournette: Likely would need something to happen to Jones.
  4. Tampa Bay D/ST: They will be popular and Washington does a good job limiting turnovers.
  5. Washington D/ST: Playoff Brady is a tough nut to crack, even as he heads towards his mid-40s.

Wild Card Weekend Saturday Football Lottery Tickets NFL DFS Picks

  1. Taylor Heinicke: Would need something to befall Smith in the first quarter for this to work out.
  2. Scott Miller: Moves up to the top of the Secondary picks if Evans is out.
  3. Peyton Barber: Touchdown hunting time.
  4. Cameron Brate: Intriguing leverage option, likely will see 2-3 targets.
  5. Ke’Shawn Vaughn: Does just enough to warrant his own line.
  6. Tyler Johnson: Would need to have Evans out before he is more than a dart throw.
  7. Dontrelle Inman, Isaiah Wright, Jeremy Sprinkle: Just a whole lotta meh!

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Looking for more Wild Card Weekend NFL DFS picks content? We have loads of Wild Card Weekend playoff articles, data, DraftKings and FanDuel NFL DFS Picks cheat sheets and more on the Awesemo NFL home page. Just click HERE.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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