NFL Prime Time Games: Showdown Week 12 Monday Night Football (FREE)

Greetings, Gamers! Welcome to the Awesemo NFL DFS Single-Game Prime Time series for FanDuel and DraftKings showdown slates. For each of the featured games, typically Sunday, Monday and Thursday nights, we will be providing a free analysis for the single-slate action on DraftKings and FanDuel. This will include team capsules as well as player rankings and comments for all your daily fantasy needs. We have loads to get into on this Sunday Night slate between the Ravens and Rams, with thoughts on Lamar Jackson, Cooper Kupp and more for your MNF NFL DFS lineups!

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Watch NFL Monday Night Showdown Picks at 7:30pm ET as Your Ol’ Pal EMac and Nolan Kelly break down Monday’s game for Showdown formats.

NFL DFS Picks: Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Rams +3.0 / 46.5

Wrapping up Week 12, we have an interesting matchup with a phenomenal player in Lamar Jackson taking on a sputtering offense that just one year ago was one of the most innovative in the league.

Please note that there are four teams on a bye (ARZ, KC, LAC and MIN) when I am referencing players’ weekly rankings.

Baltimore Ravens 24.75 implied points

Quarterback

Despite all the hand wringing, the Rams have one of the better defenses in the league according to Football Outsiders. They are eighth overall with the third-best rushing DVOA, 11th adjusted sack rate and 17th passing DVOA. On the flip side, the Ravens have the best rushing DVOA, fifth passing and third overall. This should be a battle royale worth watching!

For the full week, Lamar Jackson checks in as the top overall quarterback in most projection systems. He is averaging 78.1 rushing yards per game, which is 10th-best in the league, and on pace for 1,250 yards for the season. His 19 aerial touchdowns rank fifth overall and he has the fourth-best quarterback rating. There really is not much else to add other than get him in your NFL DFS lineups.

Running Back

Over the last five weeks, Gus Edwards is averaging just five fewer snaps per game than Mark Ingram III. However, Ingram has him 12 to six for red zone opportunities, 11 to zero targets and 78 to 45 combined yards per game. Justice Hill is seeing between 8-12 snaps per game and would need one of the other running backs to get hurt before taking on a more prominent role. Christian McCaffrey in Week 1 and Chris Carson in Week 5 are the only running backs to top 100 yards against Los Angeles.

Wide Receiver

Marquise Brown is the WR1 which is pretty impressive for the rookie from Oklahoma, but he has been dealing with various injuries this season. The current one is a nagging ankle injury that has limited him to half the snaps over the last three weeks with just a dozen total targets. Willie Snead IV and Seth Roberts are each on the field for 55-60% of the snaps, with Snead seeing eight targets and Roberts only a pair over the last three games.

Tight End

Mark Andrews is the go-to option for Lamar Jackson and he leads the team with 70 targets, 598 receiving yards and six touchdowns. Nick Boyle is the blocking tight end and he plays on about 75% of the snaps compared to the 35-50% for Andrews and 40-50% for Hayden Hurst. Both Boyle and Hurst do see a couple targets each game, so they are in the mix as touchdown roulette options for NFL DFS.

Defense/Special Teams

In their last six games, the Rams have allowed sacks in just two of them—four to the Steelers in Week 10 and four to the 49ers in Week 6. Despite having one of the better defenses in the league, the Ravens are 25th with just 23 sacks this season. They are sixth with 16 takeaways and allowing the sixth-fewest points at 19.6 per game. This is more of a bend, don’t break unit that stays fresh with the offense clocking a whopping 34:35 time of possession.

Los Angeles Rams 21.75 implied points

Quarterback

Jared Goff has had mixed results this season and it is not going to be easy on Monday Night Football against the third-best passing DVOA. In their last six games, the Ravens have not allowed a 300-yard passer and they have given up only four aerial touchdowns in that span. They have allowed nine passing touchdowns this year which is the third-fewest in the league (BUF seven, NE four). Goff has not thrown a touchdown pass in the last two games, but he should have Brandin Cooks (concussion) back and potentially Robert Woods (personal) as well.

Running Back

Todd Gurley saw a season-high 25 carries in last week’s 17-7 victory against the Bears. That was his largest workload since Week 8 of last season and he has been on the field for 70%+ of the snaps in six of the nine games in which he played. Depending on half or full-PPR scoring, Gurley is the RB11-15 in most projections this week. Baltimore has allowed just three rushing touchdowns in their last six games and Joe Mixon and Nick Chubb are the only two ball carriers to top the century mark against them. Malcolm Brown will get a handful of touches spelling Gurley, but rookie Darrell Henderson is an afterthought at this point.

Wide Receiver

Brandin Cooks is out of the concussion protocol and expected to play, but Robert Woods is questionable dealing with a personal matter. Cooper Kupp is amazing, but also limited by his quarterback’s shortcomings. Over the last two games, he has seen seven targets for 3/53/0 and was held without a catch in Week 10. If Woods returns to action tonight, Josh Reynolds will be irrelevant.

Tight End

Travis Kelce in Week 3 and Ricky Seals-Jones in Week 4 were the only tight ends to surpass 35 receiving yards against the Ravens this year. After seeing a season-high 12 targets in Week 10, Gerald Everett got just one in Week 11. Over the last four games, non-Everett tight ends have had only eight targets compared to 26 for Everett.

Defense/Special Teams

Over the last five games, Lamar Jackson has been sacked only five times and he has six total interceptions on the season. The Ravens have only 10 combined turnovers this season which is the fourth fewest in the league.

MNF NFL DFS Showdown Strategy

The core build on both DraftKings and FanDuel is going to be centered around Lamar Jackson. This is going to make everything else challenging, particularly with the 1.5 Captain salary multiplier on DraftKings. I do not hate the idea of using both kickers in the same lineup for salary relief.

Single Game Ranking (taking into account projected production, pricing and popularity)

NFL DFS Top 10

1. Lamar Jackson: as mentioned in the Strategy paragraph above, this is not going to be easy on DraftKings.
2. Greg Zuerlein and Justin Tucker: two of the better kickers in the game, I actually prefer Tucker even though he is on the road. This is the highest I have ever ranked both kickers, but we NEED salary savings if we go with Jackson.
3. Todd Gurley: if all three wide receivers are in action for the Rams, I would prefer to go with Gurley since at least the rushing production should be consolidated with him.
4. Mark Andrews: seems to consistently be the apple of Jackson’s eye.
5. Mark Ingram: the two receiving touchdowns last week were unexpected, but a good reminder to the coaching staff that he is a well-rounded back.
6. Baltimore D/ST: even at home, do you really trust Jared Goff? Head coach Sean McVay has been disappointing with his seeming inability to evolve what was a cutting edge offense only a year ago.
7. Jared Goff: consolidating the Rams passing production. Only three of ten games with 300-plus yards. No passing touchdowns in three of the last five.
8. Cooper Kupp: his production has been mercurial this season.
9. Marquise Brown: if he were fully healthy, I would probably have ranked him second.
10. Hayden Hurst: nice price, but this is touchdown hunting time. Much more viable on DraftKings for what is likely to be only 2-3 targets.

NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Secondary Plays

1. Brandin Cooks, Robert Woods, Gerald Everett: tough matchup and if everyone is back in action predicting workload is going to be tricky.
2. Malcolm Brown: should get a handful of opportunities while Gurley gets a break.
3. Nick Boyle: he is on the field the most of the tight end trio, but the percentage of targets per snap is essentially the lowest.
4. Gus Edwards: probably could consider him over Hurst on FanDuel, he should get 6-8 carries tonight.
5. Seth Edwards and Willie Snead: at least they will be on the field, but targets are likely to be few and far between.

NFL DFS Showdown Picks: Lottery Tickets

1. Los Angeles D/ST: sack and turnover opportunities should be limited tonight.
2. Josh Reynolds: swap with Woods if he is inactive tonight.
3. Tyler Higbee, Darrell Henderson and JoJo Natson: Natson returns kicks, the other two need an in-game injury for relevance.
4. Justice Hill, Miles Boykin and D’Anthony Thomas: Thomas returns kicks, the other two need an in-game injury for relevance.

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Good Luck in tonight’s Showdown Slate NFL DFS Gamers! ~ EMac