Welcome to the weekly PrizePicks Main slate NFL DFS breakdown for Week 1. We will be taking an early look at which fantasy totals you should be targeting in NFL PrizePicks. If you are new to the site, PrizePicks is different than making your traditional NFL DFS picks. Rather, you get the opportunity to bundle over or under selections on a player’s fantasy points into parlays for big payouts.
Using the Awesemo weekly NFL DFS projections (which also use 1-point/PPR scoring and 4-point passing touchdowns), I will be targeting the players that stick out as the best options here every week and give you an idea as to why they might be good targets. To play, pair at least two plays together (up to five), pick over or under the given projected fantasy score or specific stats for players, and you are set.
PrizePicks Fantasy NFL Picks: Sunday Slate Breakdown
QB: Justin Herbert Under 21 Fantasy Points
Herbert has one of the biggest discrepancies between his NFL DFS projections on our site and his actual fantasy total on PrizePicks. The Washington Football Team allowed the fourth-fewest yards per pass attempt last year and were fifth in sacks per game. The game total is also one of the lowest on the slate (44.5), with the Chargers team total set at 22.75, the 19th highest this week. A close defensive struggle is expected, and Herbert’s Week 1 total looks to be slightly inflated. The under projects as a strong play.
There is some opportunity brewing with targeting other young quarterbacks in Week 1 as well. Zach Wilson projects as a good under play at 17.5. His first start is on the road against Carolina team, who figures to run more with Christian McCaffery now healthy, which could make for a low-scoring affair.
In Houston, Trevor Lawrence projects as a good over play at 18.5 against a weak Houston team. Houston allowed the fourth-most yards per pass attempt last season.
RB Raheem Mostert Over 12 Fantasy Points
There is a lot of talk about Trey Sermon in fantasy circles, but by all accounts, Mostert should lead the backfield in touches for Week 1. San Francisco when healthy in 2019 ran the ball 32.1 times per game (second most in the league), and they should be run heavy again here given the fact they enter as 7.5-point road favorites against Detroit. San Francisco has the fifth-highest implied team total on the slate (26.25), so a lot of red zone opportunities should be in the cards as well.
The Jets have named running back Tevin Coleman their starter, but he still projects as a good under target at his 11.2 total on PrizePicks. The Jets have three running backs in the mix, and the Jets only have a 19.75-point implied total.
Saquon Barkley also projects as a nice under target on his total of 16.5. His usage for Week 1 remains a mystery, and the Giants only have a 19.25-point implied total.
WR Calvin Ridley Over 19 Fantasy Points
Ridley is projected by Awesemo to be one of the highest-scoring receivers in Week 1, so his total being set at just 19 makes him a very interesting over target. Philadelphia allowed the 10th-most yards per attempt last season, and Steve Nelson is their highest graded corner back on PFF (36th last season). Both the Eagles and Falcons were top 10 in pace last season, and the Falcons project as 3- or 4-point favorites with a healthy 25.5-point total for Week 1. Do not shy away from the over on Ridley’s big total here.
The Vikings do not have a ton of receivers to hog targets, but Adam Thielen has a big total on PrizePicks at 16.5, which makes him a good under target.
On the other side, Tyrell Williams of the Lions has a surprisingly small total of 9.5. The Lions are heavy underdogs, and garbage time could be fruitful for Williams in Week 1.
TE Noah Fant Under 10.5 Fantasy Points
The Broncos take on the Giants on the road in Week 1, in the game with the lowest over/under on the main slate. Fant had a solid end to his season in 2020, but the Broncos have a lot of receivers to feed and were 12th in rush attempts per game last season. They also drafted running back Javonte Williams this season and improved on defense. Unless he finds the end zone, Fant likely will not get the volume he needs to get the over.
Mike Gesicki averaged over eight targets a game in his final four starts last season. While it is a tougher matchup for him against New England in Week 1, his smaller total of 9.5 still makes him a good over target.
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