NFL DFS Showdown Strategy Week 1: Los Angeles Rams vs. Dallas Cowboys

The Los Angeles Rams face the Dallas Cowboys in the first Sunday Night Football game of the 2020 season. The Cowboys are -3 favorites despite having to travel to LA. The game total is up to 51 points. As with all of my NFL DFS Showdown Strategy pieces for DraftKings and FanDuel, you can find the data that backs the takes in this article with Nolan Kelly kicking off the breakdown in his own NFL Showdown piece. All showdown NFL DFS picks and trend data can be found in this sheet that will be updated after each full NFL week concludes.


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NFL DFS Picks: Showdown Strategy, Optimal Lineup Construction | Rams vs Cowboys SNF

Captain

Michael Gallup

This game is loaded with studs up top but playing one in captain almost certainly prohibits you from getting multiples of them in your flex positions. At $12,000, Gallup is affordable enough to not hamstring the rest of your lineup but still has loads of upside. After tearing his meniscus in Week 2 and missing two games, Gallup came back on fire. From Week 5 onward, he led Dallas in targets (98) and air yards (1,183). It’s possible that he’s the No. 1 receiver in Dallas again at a cheaper cost and lower ownership than Amari Cooper.

Robert Woods

There’s a similar situation with the Rams receivers. Cooper Kupp is $900 more than Woods at captain but Woods led the team in targets (139) and air yards (1,175). If the public is confident that either Cooper or Kupp is the top option on their respective team, it’s best to get on the other side of that bet.

Ezekiel Elliott

Alex Awesemo Baker preaches the RB captain strategy because when a running back finds the end zone, they’re typically doing it on the ground. That means they don’t have to share there points with other players like in a passing touchdown. This gives them the ability to rise above other players without bringing them along, making running backs great for the captain.

The LA backfield is set to be a three-way mess so Zeke gets the nod. Zeke led the league in red zone carries last year and finished third in goal line carries at 59 and 12 respectively. No player has more touchdown upside than Zeke.

Quarterbacks

Quarterbacks made the captain spot in 21% of winning NFL DFS lineups last year. Of the 10 winners, four featured a final total over 50. Dak Prescott’s rushing ability makes him the easy choice at captain of the two passers. Jared Goff adds little with his legs so he will likely propel one of his pass-catching options to a better score if he has a good game.


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NFL DFS Picks: Flex Considerations

Jared Goff

Goff isn’t a bad play, he’s just unlikely to be the optimal choice for captain. The Rams play at a breakneck pace when they’re losing by a decent amount. When they were down by seven or more points last year, the averaged 20.79 seconds per play. That mark was first in the league by over a second. They also passes on 77% of their plays when losing at all. If Vegas is right and they are going to lose this game, Goff and the pass-catching options will find there way into the best lineup. A 3-3 build makes a lot of sense on this slate and it could even be reasonable to go Rams-heavy even if they’re projected to lose.

Blake Jarwin vs. CeeDee Lamb

Jarwin is priced at $6,200 despite potentially being the fifth receiving option on his team. He’s stepping into the Jason Witten role from last year but that could be a less valuable job with Lamb in town. Lamb is $400 cheaper and was dominant in college. He caught 62 passes for 1,327 yards and 14 scores. He even found the end zone once on the ground. Lamb is a great pivot off Jarwin this week.

Tyler Higbee

Higbee ended 2019 on a tear. He averaged an 8.6/104.4/.4 line over his final five games. Brandin Cooks was dealing with a concussion. Cooks is out of the picture now and we know how pass-happy the Rams can get if things don’t break their way. Higbee as the safety-valve to Goff in a game that they’re getting blown out in is a solid play.

Cooper and Kupp… Amari and Cooper?

Each of these receivers topped 25 DraftKings points in four of 17 games last year. However, both will be higher-owned than their respective No. 2s so you’ll have to get unique elsewhere. A 5-1 build with Amari would work as that construction isn’t used nearly as often as it hits. Simply playing Rams in your captain and multiple flex spots should be different as they’re the underdogs and projected to be the less popular team on the whole.

Lower-Owned NFL Picks

Kickers

Greg Zuerlein is the starting kicker for Dallas. His team has a 27 implied team total and high game totals don’t prohibit kickers from making it in the flex. He’s the preferred option out of him and LA’s kicker Sam Sloman. Also, it’s a revenge game.

Defense

Both quarterbacks in this game take sacks at a rate between five and 6.5%. Each has a career interception rate of under 2.3%. That makes both defenses unattractive but Dallas as the favorites is in play given their reasonable ownership projection.

Backup Running Backs

There aren’t many great plays for low costs in this game but the backups running backs could be the key. Tony Pollard topped 20 points on two occasions last year. His team won by over 20 points in both contests. Playing for a script where Dallas buries LA and gets to use Pollard for a full quarter is viable. Zeke went for 34 points in one of those two games so the double-RB build has a chance to pay off and could be extremely uncommon.

Sean McVay has talked at length about operating his backfield with a committee. Darrell Henderson is $3,400 and could open the year as LA’s receiving back. He caught 63 passes for 758 yards and eight scores in college while sharing the field with Pollard. A third-down role for a team that is projected to lose for that price is worth considering as well.


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Author
If you like fantasy football and care about data, there's a 50/50 chance I've written for your favorite site. In a few short years I've covered, season-long, dynasty, best ball, and DFS for football. I used to be watching games and pretend to know what I was talking about but now I just spew numbers that forecast outcomes better than any scout. Come for the numbers, stay for the bad jokes and Zach Zenner references. RIP XFL.

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