The second Thursday Night Football game of 2020 features two No. 1 overall picks as the Cleveland Browns host the Cincinnati Bengals. The Browns are 6-point favorites and the game has a total of 43.5. As with all of my NFL DFS Showdown Strategy pieces for DraftKings and FanDuel, you can find the data that backs the takes in this article with Nolan Kelly kicking off the breakdown in his own NFL Showdown piece. All showdown NFL DFS picks and trend data can be found in this sheet that will be updated after each full NFL week concludes.
NFL DFS Picks: Showdown Strategy, Optimal Lineup Construction | Browns vs. Bengals TNF
Showdown Captain
Odell Beckham
The optics weren’t good for Beckham and the Browns in Week 1. They got routed by the Baltimore Ravens, and their star receiver caught three passes for 22 scoreless yards. There were positives, though. The biggest was Beckham’s 10 targets for 129 air yards. His target-total was tied for eighth in the NFL last week and his air yards mar was a top-15 total. Beckham is going to get knocked for his Week 1 performance but the volume was there. He’s projected as the best value on the slate aside from a handful of options below $1,000. Don’t be afraid to buy low on Beckham after one bad week.
John Ross
Based on previous winners of Showdown slates, Ross would be low for a Captain price at $7,800. However, even as recently as Monday night with Darius Slayton being the optimal Captain, we’ve seen explosive receivers break that mold. Ross and his 4.22-40 wheels could be the next to do so. He was tied for second in targets on the Bengals last week at five looks. Unsurprisingly, his 12.4 average depth of target was also second on the team. Ross opened 2019 with back-to-back games over 20 DraftKings points. His speed and deep route tree give him upside that few other players in this game can lay claim to.
A.J. Green
Green returned to the field in Week 1 after sitting out all of 2019 with a foot injury. He led the Bengals in targets and air yards on his way to five catches for 51 yards. Green’s big-game potential is well documented, and he appears to be his team’s unquestioned No. 1 receiver. His $13,500 price tag is the highest of the slate for a non-quarterback, so it makes the most sense to run him in lineups built on the premise of him leading the Bengals to a blowout performance.
Related NFL DFS Content
- Awesemo YouTube Channel — NFL DFS Picks & Strategy
- Working the Waiver Wire: Top Week 2 Pickups including Benny Snell and Nyheim Hines
- NFL Week 2 Survivor Picks + Strategy | Titans or Bucs?
- NFL Data Deep-Dive: Recapping All The Week 1 Data (FREE This Week Only)
- Awesemo’s NFL DFS Projections (PREMIUM)
- Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker’s Top Stack Tool (PREMIUM)
NFL DFS Picks: Showdown Flex Considerations
Browns Backfield
Both Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt are fine plays, but playing them both in the same lineup is a tough sell. The Browns only ran five plays from 21 personnel (one tight end and two running backs), and all four of those plays featured a fullback, not both runners. Hunt saw six targets in Week 1 and Chubb got just one look. Chubb was also out-carried by Hunt 10 to 13. That specific note should be a product of the negative game script. Chubb and Hunt’s volume appears inversely correlated. If one succeeds, the other fails. Both backs are priced in the mid/high range — $7,600 for Chubb and $7,400 for Hunt — so they both need a decent amount of points to make the optimal line. No winning lineup from 2019 featured two backs both over $5,600.
Giovani Bernard or Joe Mixon
Much like the Browns backfield, Cincinnati is split between a receiving back and a between-the-tackles player. Mixon carried the ball 19 times last week to Bernard’s two totes. However, Bernard’s five targets led the backfield. The difference here is that Bernard is only $3,000. Playing both backs on this team is more viable, and Mixon in the Captain spot is in play as well. He’s specifically good in builds that assume the Bengals win this game.
Quarterbacks
Joe Burrow is the preferred quarterback because of his rushing upside. Quarterbacks are frequently used as the Captain in winning lineups because they propel their receivers to a higher score when they go off. Burrow’s legs allow him to circumvent that so he could even be considered at Captain. He carried the ball eight times for 46 yards and a score in his NFL debut.
Joe Burrow is a playmaker. Period.@JoeyB | #SeizeTheDEY pic.twitter.com/nl3ZpHf9tH
— NFL (@NFL) September 13, 2020
Burrow and one of Green or Ross, who can both generate yardage in chunks, is the best way to stack the Bengals.
Slot Receivers
Tyler Boyd appears to be the odd man out in Cincinnati’s target totem pole. Because his targets come near the line of scrimmage and he doesn’t get all of the looks in the red zone, he needs a ton of chances to be a value. With multiple receivers siphoning away targets, that won’t happen often.
Jarvis Landry led Cleveland in all receiving production categories last week with five catches for 61 yards. He will be the leading Browns player in yards per target (10.2) because Baker Mayfield struggled to throw deep or intermediate and David Njoku is on IR. He could catch a swathe of short throws if the Browns are trailing.
Kicker and Defense
Both starting kickers and both defenses are on the board in a game with a middling 43.5 total. The Browns, as the favorites, are the better option at defense. Myles Garrett alone averaged one sack per game last year before his suspension. Burrow will be an easier target than Jackson, so he could get back on track after doing little in Week 1.
The Browns signed kicker Cody Parkey after Austin Seibert missed multiple kicks in Week 1. Parkey was 3-for-3 in 2019 and also makes a solid Flex play in a game that could feature modest scoring.
Lower-Owned NFL DFS Picks
Harrison Bryant
The Browns passed out of 12 or 13 personnel on 20 of 48 passing plays last week. With Njoku out, Bryant could pick up two or three targets at the minimum price.
KhaDarel Hodge
Hodge saw three targets but DraftKings has him at $400. He’s a starting receiver for the price of an inactive player. It looks likely that a player under $1,000 will be in the winning lineup.
Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.
Looking for more NFL DFS picks content? We’ve got loads of articles, data, cheatsheets and more on the Awesemo NFL home page, just click HERE.
