The Super Bowl that the people deserve will be played out on Monday night this week as the Baltimore Ravens host the Kansas City Chiefs. The game total is on the rise and currently sits at 54. The Ravens are 3.5-point favorites. As with all of my NFL DFS Showdown Strategy pieces for DraftKings and FanDuel, you can find the data that backs the takes in this article with Nolan Kelly kicking off the breakdown in his own NFL Showdown piece. All showdown NFL DFS picks and trend data can be found in this sheet that will be updated after each full NFL week concludes.
NFL DFS Picks: Monday Night Football NFL DFS | Baltimore Ravens vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Showdown Captain
Quarterback
Over the past year and three weeks of Showdown slates, there have been 11 winning lineups with a quarterback at Captain. Eight of those passers also had potential as ball carriers. This obviously points to Lamar Jackson, but Patrick Mahomes has a sneaky level of rushing production. Mahomes carried the ball six times for 54 yards last week. He has topped 20 yards on the ground in 36.7% of his starts.
Jackson hasn’t missed a beat as a runner. He has 23 carries for 99 yards through two weeks. Both quarterbacks project to lead the slate in scoring but come at a cost. Mahomes costs $18,000 to play at Captain, while Jackson is $19,500. You’ll need to find multiple cheap plays to get either one of the quarterbacks in your Captain spot.
It’s a near lock that one passer will be at least in the optimal lineup. Mahomes’ lesser rushing output makes him a better option to stack with his team. Jackson could be run solo because of his historic rushing ability.
Editors Note: Looks like there’s a nice player prop differential on OddsShopper right now for tonight’s Chiefs vs. Ravens games, with a eight yards between each book.
Awesemo has Lamar Jackson projected for WAY under that total at just 225 yards tonight.
Tight Ends
There was only one regular season slate that saw a tight end finish as the winning Captain last year. However, Kelce managed the feat in the playoffs last year. Tight ends clearly need to be the best of the best to garner consideration at Captain but both Mark Andrews and Travis Kelce fit the bill.
- Kelce – 26% target share (fourth among tight ends), 27.4% air yards share (fourth)
- Andrews – 18.8% target share (eighth), 26.1% air yards share (fifth)
Kelce’s offense is more likely to air it our throughout the duration of the game, and his market share numbers are better. He gets the edge for tight ends at Captain.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire
The Ravens have only allowed 26.2 DraftKings points to opposing backs this year. That mark leads all teams through two weeks. The matchup isn’t great on paper, but the Ravens have also won their two contests by a collective score of 71-22. Their opponents haven’t been close enough in scoring to take the air out of the ball. The Chiefs are underdogs by roughly a field goal. Edwards-Helaire has out-carried backup Darrel Williams 35-7 through two weeks. He’s a clear lead-back on a team that projects to score over 25 points. At $11,700, he’s also reasonably priced compared to the other weapons in this game.
Tyreek Hill and Marquise Brown
Both teams have downfield burners in their arsenals. Brown has only seen six targets through two weeks, but his market share numbers are elite. He owns a 25% target share and a 36.5% air yards share. Brown only needs a few deep hits to pay off his $12,600 tag.
Hill costs $1,200 more and has a lower target share (22.1%) with similar air yards numbers (36.8%). He’s fine at Captain as well, but Brown offers the same game-breaking upside at a lower cost.
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NFL DFS Picks: Showdown Flex Considerations
Ravens Backs
The Baltimore backfield has been a mess through two weeks. J.K. Dobbins operated as the goal line back in Week 1 before seeing just two carries and a target in Week 2. Mark Ingram leads the backfield with 21 touches but has peaked at 11 so far. He projects as the best overall play in the backfield but comes with the risk that he cedes work to Dobbins or Gus Edwards.
Edwards has nice long-speed and has run at 5.3 yards per carry on 284 career carries. He could take a long run to the house and will be completely overlooked in a game full of stars. He’s worth looking at in large-field GPPs.
Mecole Hardman and Sammy Watkins
Watkins is dealing with a concussion but practiced in full on Saturday. It looks like he’ll play and continue to serve as the No. 2 receiver for Mahomes. He missed time in Week 2 with the injury but played on 80% of snaps and was targeted nine times in Week 1. He played on 70% of the Chiefs’ snaps in all but two games dating back to Week 8 of last year before suffering the injury. Despite Watkins missing time last week, Hardman was only targeted twice and played on 50 snaps to Demarcus Robinson‘s 48. Robinson won’t see the ownership that Hardman will but projects for just as much volume. He’s a great pivot off Hardman in tournaments.
Defense
DraftKings priced both defenses down for the slate, but the Ravens $3,800 might not be enough of a discount. Playing a defense against Jackson sounds like a recipe for disaster, but the Chiefs are only $2,600 and have six sacks on the season. Their price makes the Chiefs defense a solid value at low ownership, though they lack some upside unless they score a touchdown.
Kickers
The Ravens went for it on 24 fourth downs last year, a top-five total in the league. The teams ahead of them were mostly losing teams that had no choice to be aggressive. Baltimore’s aggressive style could cap the field goal upside of Justin Tucker. Harrison Butker is $200 cheaper at $4,200, and his team isn’t quite as aggressive. Either kicker will likely need to net multiple field goals to crack the optimal lineup given the expected scoring in this game. Neither are great bets, but Butker gets the edge.
Ravens WR Flyers
Miles Boykin is second on Baltimore in receiving snaps at 51 compared to Willie Snead‘s count of 40. Boykin also has the edge in targets at nine. That mark is second on the team. Boykin stands at 6-foot-4 and weighs 220 pounds but still ran a 4.42 40-yard dash. He could prove to be a matchup nightmare versus Chiefs corner Rashad Fenton, who stands at 5-foot-11 and has a 33-pound deficit. Snead isn’t a bad play, but neither Ravens receiver projects for high ownership, so it’s best to side with the better projection in Boykin.
Lower-Owned NFL Picks
Boyle has 31 receiving snaps under his belt this year, and the Ravens are without Hayden Hurst, who split work with Boyle behind Andrews last year before being traded to Atlanta in the offseason. He has four targets on the year and could be used in the red zone on two-tight-end sets.
Darrel Williams
The Chiefs have a solidified set of starters and don’t give their backups much work. Edwards-Helaire is sixth on the team with 51 snaps on passing downs, and Williams is seventh at 20. He has 10 touches on the year. Williams will get a few snaps in a game with a 54-point total. He could luck into a touchdown and is worth a flier in large tournaments.
Devin Duvernay
The Ravens selected Duvernay in the third round, but the rookie hasn’t played much yet. He has caught his lone target in consecutive weeks. Boyle is a better play at $600 and only costs $200 more than Duvernay but could get some buzz as an easy way to jam in the studs. Duvernay is only useful as a pivot off Boyle.
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