The New York Giants travel to face an injury-ravaged Philadelphia Eagles squad. The Eagles are 4.5-point favorites, and the game has a 45-point total. As with all of my NFL DFS Showdown Strategy pieces for DraftKings and FanDuel, you can find the data that backs the takes in this article with Nolan Kelly kicking off the breakdown in his own NFL Showdown piece. All showdown NFL DFS picks and trend data can be found in this sheet that will be updated after each full NFL week concludes.
NFL DFS Picks: Thursday Night Football NFL DFS | Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants
Showdown Captain
Daniel Jones and Carson Wentz
Quarterbacks can sometimes struggle to be the optimal Captain. Most quarterbacks need multiple passing touchdowns and a swathe of yards to have a big day. That usually propels one of their wide receivers ahead of them. Quarterbacks have been in the winning lineup’s Captain spot in 19.4% of all winning lineups dating back to the start of last year. The difference maker a passer can have is rushing production. Both quarterbacks on this slate have that on a per-game basis:
- Wentz – 4.7 attempts, 28.5 yards, 0.7 touchdowns
- Jones – 4.5 attempts, 34 yards
Daniel "Hot Wheels" Jones 🔥
Even faked out the camera man 🎥
(via @Giants)https://t.co/uFiPK1mXjw
— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) October 18, 2020
Travis Fulgham and DeSean Jackson
The Eagles’ primary downfield threat role has been laden with volume this season. No player has occupied it for more than three weeks, though.
- Weeks 1-3: Jackson – 338 air yards
- Weeks 4-6: Fulgham – 304 air yards
The problem is that there’s no way of knowing which receiver will hold that role with Jackson returning to the lineup. Our ownership projections have Fulgham as a massive favorite by the public. Going against the public with a few Jackson-captained lineups will provide a lot of leverage.
Darius Slayton
The weekly range of outcomes on Slayton is built for Showdown tournaments. He’s topped 30 DraftKings points in three of his 20 career games. Slayton has also scored in 35% of his games and has three games with multiple scores. He’s third in the NFL with a 45% air yards share. His role as an often-used burner gives him loads of upside every week.
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Running Backs
Neither back is exciting, but both teams have a runner that could dominate the work for their respective team. Devonta Freeman was ramped up after signing with the Giants prior to Week 3. He saw little work in his first game but almost immediately took over a three-down role from Week 4 onward. Freeman has seen 77% of the Giants’ running back carries and 47.4% of the backfield targets.
Boston Scott got the start in Week 1, but he did miss a few drives with an injury. He will do so again this week with Miles Sanders out. He only saw nine carries and two targets, but Philadelphia lost that game but multiple scores. As large favorites, Scott could a notable amount of carries. He’s only projected for 12% ownership at Captain but could function in the same role that Sanders has previously. Philadelphia is finally favored in a game as well, which hasn’t been a luxury afforded to Sanders often. Both backs are in play at Captain, but Scott is poised for a surprisingly robust workload.
Editors Note:
Hedging your NFL DFS lineups has never been easier or more efficient, with the new Awesemo OddsShopper tool. Simply click on the best that you want to make and OddsShopper searches all the big betting sites and finds the best price for your bet. Awesemo has Daniel Jones projected for 224.9 yards tonight, and he has topped 222 passing yards only twice this season, so there’s some slight value on the under.
NFL DFS Picks: Showdown Flex Considerations
Other Giants Receivers
Sterling Shepard is listed as a game-time decision after coming off IR with a toe injury. Golden Tate missed Week 1 and Shepard left in Week 2, so the two have no games together to look for reference this season. Shepard was targeted 10 times in his two games at the start of the year. They are around the same price, but Tate is expected to be slightly more popular. Continue to fade the field whenever there isn’t a strong lean either way.
Evan Engram
Engram’s is No. 8 in tight end target share at 19%, but his 5.4 average depth of target caps his upside on each look he sees. He hasn’t hit 15 DraftKings points since Week 3 of 2019. Engram needs a barrage of targets to become a value, and the potential return of Shepard further caps that upside.
Richard Rodgers
The Eagles are down to Rodgers as their starting tight end. Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert are both on IR. In Week 6 (when Ertz got hurt), Rodgers played 23 receiving snaps to backup Jason Croom‘s one snap. His price hike to $5,000 makes him a mediocre value, but he’s going to be owned by less than 15% of teams. Rodgers is worth some shots on the chance that he takes over more of Ertz’s volume than expected.
Defense and Kicker
Defenses have been buried by the excess in scoring this season, but that is increasingly reflected in the ownership. Our Top Showdown Plays tool has both defenses as good plays in the Flex. Opponents are sacking the Eagles 4.2 times per game. That mark is highest in the league. Jones is also be sacked 2.8 games per game, 22nd in the league. Both defenses are above average in sacks per game. Defenses have appeared in 43.3% of winning NFL DFS Showdown lineups in the past year and a half. The field is well below that mark this week.
The Giants are attempting 2.7 field goals per game, No. 6 in the league. Graham Gano is the preferred kicker because of Joe Judge’s love for three points.
Lower-Owned NFL Picks
Damion Ratley
Ratley would step in as the No. 3 receiver if Shepard can’t go. He’ll be one of the best values on the slate if that does happen because he’s only $200.
Backup Backs
Corey Clement will serve as the backup to Scott, who’s listed at 5-foot-6 and 203 pounds. He’s carried the ball more than 10 times in one game in his three-year career. Clement touched the ball eight times in Week 1 as Scott’s understudy. His $5,200 price is high but still leaves room for some upside if he scores.
Wayne Gallman is averaging five carries and 1.3 receptions in the past three weeks. He also has a catch and a carry in the red zone in the time span.
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