The Divisional Rounds is here. It’s almost all over. But we have three weeks left to soak in all the NFL daily fantasy action. Part of success in NFL DFS is knowing how likely a stack is going to be the highest-scoring one on the slate and how much ownership that stack is going to get. Then you know if it’s a good play or not. Fortunately, our own Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker has created a Top Stacks Tool to help you with just that. He releases it every Sunday morning before lock for all your DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft needs, and you can gain access to it by signing up HERE.
Don’t forget to check out this week’s On the Contrary! Steve Buzzard joins Chris Spags and Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker to discuss the some Divisional Round contrarian picks!
NFL DFS Top Stacks
Top Value, Ownership & Leverage NFL DFS Stack
Kansas City Chiefs
With a slate-high 30.5 point implied total against a porous Houston Texans secondary, it’s not surprising to find the Kansas City Chiefs at the top of Awesemo’s stack rankings for the Divisional Round. But even as the top-owned stack of the day, they’re still providing leverage on the field relative to ownership, with a 27% chance at taking down top honors, compared to 22% ownership. Add in the highest value rating on the weekend and you’ve got yourself one of the best options we’ve seen in weeks.
I don’t need to tell you the chalkiest builds will contain Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill, brought back with DeAndre Hopkins. Finding differentiation points within a Chiefs stack isn’t easy. Sammy Watkins is the most obvious pivot, but he’s still getting 12-15% ownership across the industry, so you’re not catching anyone by surprise. Speedster rookie Mecole Hardman (2% ownership) is always a threat to break off a big one, but his snap counts and routes run numbers are down since this Chiefs offense returned to full health. In large GPPs, consider a cheap Kenny Stills bring back or a low-owned Duke Johnson, who correlates well with a Chiefs blowout, as the top pass-catching back in the Texans offense.
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Top Contrarian/Leverage NFL DFS Stack
Seattle Seahawks
All of our extremely low-owned stack options look like they’re headed for over-ownership this weekend, but the Seahawks are flying under the radar with 10% ownership compared to 15% top stack odds. Another centralized offense with D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett tied at 180 routes run over the past five weeks, with Jacob Hollister training close behind at 158. According to our projections, Hollister is going over-owned compared to his ownership and it’s actually Metcalf taking home the lowest ownership of the three on DraftKings.
After starting the year strong against the pass and weak against the run, the Packers flipped the script and no one seemed to notice. They finished the regular season ranked fourth in pass DVOA against opposing running backs and middle of the pack against receivers/tight ends. Davante Adams and Aaron Jones are the top (obvious) bring-back options. Consider Allen Lazard for a more contrarian option – he’s one of our top values on the slate. Russell Wilson is the only player in the top-20 in DraftKings salary projected for below 10% ownership.
Low-owned GPP Flier options
- Will Fuller: The thought of clicking a game-time decision Will Fuller doesn’t inspire confidence, but DFSers are going to be scared off by the Sunday late news and the early exit last week. Groin injuries plus fast receivers equals bad news. That doesn’t mean we can’t throw a share or two as a bring-back option in some Chiefs stacks.
- Kenny Stills: Should Fuller not suit up, Stills’ ownership will increase, but he’s currently projected for 6-8% across the industry. That is not bad for a guy who could end up second on the pecking order in a pass-heavy attack at a low price. On Yahoo, ownership will be higher, but he’s the bare min and one of the best values on the slate.
- Duke Johnson: As mentioned above, Johnson is likely game script dependent. The Texans will hope to establish Carlos Hyde against a weak Kansas City run stopping unit, but if they fall behind early, they’ll have to opt for pass-heavy approach, which should increase Johnson’s snap counts and usage.
