Part of success in NFL DFS is knowing how likely a stack is going to be the highest-scoring one on the slate and how much ownership that stack is going to get. That way, you know whether a stack is going over- or under-owned relative to their odds of success and you can choose whether or not to eat the chalk stack or fade it. Fortunately, our own Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker has created a Top Stacks Tool to help you with just that. He releases it every Sunday morning before lock for all your DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft needs, and you can gain access to it by signing up HERE. Use promo code FROMTHESLOT for half off your first month or week. Let’s get into some Week 12 NFL DFS stacks for your daily fantasy lineups.
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Top NFL DFS Stack: The Atlanta Falcons vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Matt Ryan is our only double-A graded quarterback across the DFS Industry, which isn’t surprising, given that the Falcons are implied for 27.5 points and he’s at a reasonable price. Of course, with value comes ownership, and you’ll need to find pivot points within your lineups. Julio Jones is projected to be our highest-owned wide receiver on most sites this week, and Calvin Ridley is coming in anywhere from 15% (DraftKings) to 30% (FanDuel). With Austin Hooper out and Mohamed Sanu traded, this is suddenly a very concentrated offense in Atlanta. Both Ridley and Jones had an 85% snap share last week, while Russell Gage was a distant third at 40%.
When Awesemo’s Top Stack tool drops on Sunday morning, my guess is this stack will be going over-owned relative to their chance at being the top one on the slate. The bring-back options on the other side of this are obvious. Out of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, I’d be more inclined to take the lesser owned of the two if there’s a discrepancy.
Contrarian NFL DFS Stack: Carolina Panthers at the New Orleans Saints
Kyle Allen and the Carolina Panthers were everyone’s favorite value stack last week, with 10-15% ownership across this industry. Along with getting a bargain on Allen himself, Curtis Samuel, D.J. Moore and Greg Olsen were priced down in what looked like a decent matchup against Saints that’s going to force them to throw the ball. Everyone but Moore BUSTED last week, but that means we’re going to get a huge recency bias ownership discount. Both Moore and Samuel rank in the top 10 in routes run this season and Christian McCaffrey is 38th. As well, Saints top corner Marshon Lattimore has yet to practice this week and is likely going to miss again in Week 12.
The only thing scaring me off here is the Panthers low 18.5 implied total, so a game stack involving a few Saints (28.5 implied total) on the other side is probably in order.
Value NFL DFS Stack: The New York Jets vs. the Oakland Raiders
It just so happens that this value stack is also contrarian. Sam Darnold is at home to the Oakland Raiders at a bargain basement price in Week 12 against a weak defense with cheap weapons to stack with. Sign me up. Outside of the Patriots game, the Jets have some respectable fantasy numbers since Darnold’s return, culminating in a 34-point outpouring against Washington last week. Robby Anderson makes for a nice GPP flier with tournament-winning upside, as the Raiders have given up the second-most pass completions of 20-plus yards and 40-plus yards this year. Since Darnold’s return, Anderson leads the team in routes run, though his target share is down. You can add in a second pass-catching option like Jamison Crowder or Ryan Griffin, but both are a little spendy, and with cheaper stacks you can get away with correlating less.
The Raiders defense is marginal at best and the public is likely on them because they’ve outperformed their wins so far this season. They rank 23rd in defensive pass DVOA and 22nd in defensive run DVOA.
Any Darnold stack is projected for <1% ownership.
Good Luck NFL DFS gamers — hope to see you in Premium Slack Chat!