Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown: Houston Texans vs. Kansas City Chiefs | Week 1

The Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown delivers the stats and storylines you need to dominate the week in fantasy football. Matt Savoca breaks down all the angles on every team and every game, including the rematch from arguably the best game of the 2019 postseason. Can Deshaun Watson exact his revenge against the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes all-world offense? For the 2020 NFL season, Matt Savoca will be providing his weekly NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Breakdown column, going through every single game and offensive and defensive matchup every week of the season. For your viewing convenience, we have broken up the matchups breakdown into several single columns, each one covering a single game. You can find links to every game right here. We have 16 games on tap for Week 1 NFL DFS and NFL Fantasy Football, so let’s dive in. The entire matchups article will be available in podcast form every Friday afternoon on the Awesemo Podcast Network. Lets get into Texans – Chiefs.


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Texans (22.25) at Chiefs (32.25) – Thursday Night Football

Houston Texans Fantasy Football Breakdown

It seems an eternity has passed since the second quarter of the divisional matchup between these two squads. With 10:54 remaining in the half, the Texans took a commanding 24-0 lead on Mahomes and the Chiefs. The rest, as many have said, is history. The Chiefs never stopped scoring, nor winning, en route to a Super Bowl run. Flashing forward to the start of the 2020 season, the Texans will certainly have a different look on offense. After one of the largest blockbuster skill player swaps in recent memory, wideout DeAndre Hopkins (who soaked up 30% of the Texans’ targets last season) is a Cardinal, while former Pro Bowl running back David Johnson is slated to make his first start in the backfield for Houston. The Texans are hoping they traded for pre-Week 7 Johnson, as he averaged 102 total yards per game on 17.7 touches through Week 6. Johnson finished has a top-12 PPR back five times in those six games prior to his midseason back problems.

Watson will likely distribute the ball much more evenly this season to both running backs, David Johnson and Duke Johnson, as well as newly acquired weapons Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb. However, it’s no secret that Will Fuller comes into the game likely to be the heaviest-targeted Texan. Expect an expanded route tree from Fuller as he shifts from deep-ball specialist towards alpha receiver status. Assuming he’s healthy (a big assumption for Fuller), don’t be surprised if he blasts beyond his 6.5 opportunities per game in 2019. Interestingly enough, if the Texans are to find an edge in this game, it could be through the air.

Kansas City comes into the season shorthanded at corner due to the suspension of Bashaud Breeland and the departure of Kendall Fuller through free agency. Watson will likely be forced to keep pace with the Chiefs by creating big plays, which he’s no stranger to attempting, averaging over five attempts of 20 or more air yards per game and 5.5 rushes per game, both fourth highest in the NFL last year.

Kansas City Chiefs Fantasy Football Breakdown

The Chiefs return every key skill piece from their top-flight offense, save for starting running back Damien Williams, who they replaced with first-rounder Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Expect 15-plus touches, including plenty of work through the air for the rookie back and an immediate ascent into the RB1 conversation in fantasy football. On paper, it doesn’t appear that the Texans have done enough this offseason on defense to slow down Mahomes and his weapons, making it easy to project typical numbers (and week-breaking ceilings) for Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce. Though Houston was middle of the road in adjusted pressure rate a season ago, applying heavy pressure on Mahomes might be only way the Texans can slow down the historic Chiefs Offense. One aspect of the Chiefs offense to monitor will be how wide receiver snaps are distributed behind Hill. Sammy Watkins has a history of flashing (as he did in Week 1 last season) and then disappearing for long stretches, while Demarcus Robinson played on over 70% of snaps last season.

However, it’s second-year wideout Mecole Hardman who might have the most to gain from increased playing time. Playing only 43% of snaps last year, Hardman had the highest yards per reception (20.7) and yards per target (13.1) of any player with 15 or more targets in 2019. He also recorded the top-two fastest ball-carrier speeds among all wide receivers last year according to NFL Next Gen Stats.  Needless to say, it’s nice to be Mahomes’ deep threat, and a slight bump in playing time could lead to a monster year two for the speedster Hardman.

Prediction: Chiefs 35, Texans 28

Alternative Scenario: Both defenses come out flat-footed. Mahomes goes nuclear, and Watson, ever the competitor, keeps pace in an opening night thriller. Chiefs 45, Texans 44.


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Author
A middling athlete who was offered his first sports analytics position at age 14, I've been working on NFL and fantasy football data science since 2017. With a particular passion for data visualization and dashboard building, I love to make data accessible by using graphs and charts to communicate ideas that are difficult to explain with words alone. You can contact me by e-mailing [email protected].

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