NFL DFS Week 16 has finally arrived, and it’s time to talk strategy. Stacking a quarterback with one of more of his pass catchers provides a solid way to add upside to a daily fantasy football lineup. Part of the selection process for these picks comes from analyzing Awesemo’s top stacks tool for Week 16 for NFL DFS on both DraftKings and FanDuel. With Week 16 offering a full slate of games, here are a few top stacks among the NFL DFS picks worth considering on the main slate.
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NFL DFS Top Stacks for Week 16 on DraftKings + FanDuel
Top Stack: Kansas City Chiefs
A weekly staple on the top stacks tool, Kansas City enters Week 16 with the best probability of finishing as the top stack. The Chiefs take on the Falcons as 10.5-point favorites in the game featuring the highest total on the slate. Also the lone team with an implied total above 30 points, the Chiefs stand out above the rest of the DraftKings and FanDuel main slate.
MVP candidate Patrick Mahomes is completing 67.3% of his passes for an elite 8.2 yards per pass attempt. Mahomes now has at least 300 yards passing in six of his last seven games. He also bested that mark in nine contests already this season. As it stands, Mahomes leads the NFL in yards passing by a 300-yard margin heading into Week 16. Even at an expensive price, Mahomes is a bargain across DFS platforms.
As for stacking options, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce are two of the top pass catchers on the Week 16 slate. Hill and Kelce hold a 23.8 and 24.8% target share, respectively, and both players have at least 10 targets in three of their last four games. Kelce provides a slight edge in the tight end slot, with George Kittle and Darren Waller off the main slate. Beyond Hill and Kelce, Sammy Watkins provides a cheap attachment to the Chiefs offense. Watkins has a 14.5% target share and continues to run a route on a majority of Mahomes dropbacks.
While the Chiefs stack projects to carry significant ownership, the top stacks tool still believes Kansas City provides leverage.
Awesemo Top Stack Projection: 38.6%
Awesemo QB Ownership Projection: 20.8%
Value: 25.0 (highest)
Leverage: 17.8%
Top Stack: Atlanta Falcons
On the other side of the Chiefs game, the Falcons also bring a solid chance of finishing Week 16 as the top stack. While Atlanta is a 10.5-point underdog, the shootout potential of the game boosts them up the top stacks rankings. With Kansas City playing efficient football, opponents often find themselves with elevated pass attempts while playing from behind.
As for the Atlanta signal-caller, Matt Ryan has a 64.2% completion rate and 7.3 yards per attempt. Both marks rank outside the top 20 quarterbacks , but Ryan still ranks third in yards passing (4,016) and second in pass attempts. With the Falcons frequently behind, Ryan has often been forced to throw the ball. This hasn’t been great for Atlanta’s win-loss record, but Ryan is still averaging 287 yards per game.
The Falcons will again miss Julio Jones. In his place, Calvin Ridley will function as the team’s alpha receiver. Ridley has a 24.7% target share this season and 41% of the team’s air yards. Still underpriced, Ridley makes sense as the offense’s top stacking option. Behind Ridley, Russell Gage continues to play a larger role in the offense. Gage has at least seven targets in each of his last three games and still looks underpriced. Finally, Hayden Hurst fills the tight end position and has a 14.3% target share on the season.
For those fading Mahomes and the Chiefs, Atlanta provides leverage and another path to top stack on the Week 16 main slate on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
Awesemo Top Stack Projection: 9.0%
Awesemo QB Ownership Projection: 5.0%
Value: 7.3 (second-highest)
Leverage: 4.0%
NFL DFS Value Stack: Chicago Bears
For those looking at cheap stacks, the Chicago Bears rank third in pass rate (63.4%) with a condensed target share for their pass catchers. This week, the Bears also draw a positive matchup against the Jaguars. The Bears are 7-point favorites in a game totaled at 47.5 points. With Jacksonville allowing a league-worst 8.1 yards per pass attempt, Bears stacks provide a cheap access point to the Week 16 main slate.
Regaining his job midseason, Mitchell Trubisky has benefited from an easy slate of games in recent weeks. On the year Trubisky is completing 64.5% of his passes for 7.0 yards per attempt. However, he has shown the ability to beat up on weaker opponents, with at least 200 yards passing in each of his last four games. Impressively, Trubisky has also completed at least 70% of his passes in each of his last three games, which bodes well for his matchup against Jacksonville.
As for Chicago stacking options, the offense continues to flow through Allen Robinson. Robinson’s 25.7% target share and 31.4% air yards share lead the team comfortably. Behind Robinson, Darnell Mooney holds a slight target edge over Anthony Miller as a cheaper dart throw. However, Cole Kmet may provide the top punt option among the Bears pass catchers. Last week Kmet’s 77% route rate dwarfed Jimmy Graham‘s 38% rate. Also filling the desolate tight end position, Kmet provides cheap leverage off Kelce.
While Chicago projects to carry ownership, the Bears stack provides salary relief and a direct path to some of the expensive plays on the slate.
Awesemo Top Stack Projection: 7.9%
Awesemo QB Ownership Projection: 14.2%
Value: 6.4
Leverage: -6.3%
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