Week 17 is here. It’s almost all over. But we’ve got one week left to enjoy regular season NFL. Part of success in NFL DFS is knowing how likely a stack is going to be the highest-scoring one on the slate and how much ownership that stack is going to get. Then you know if it’s a good play or not. Fortunately, our own Alex ‘Awesemo’ Baker has created a Top Stacks Tool to help you with just that. He releases it every Sunday morning before lock for all your DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft needs, and you can gain access to it by signing up HERE.
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Don’t forget to check out On the Contrary for Week 17 NFL DFS Picks, with Ian Hartitz joining Chris Spags and Sal Vetri
NFL DFS Top Stack: The Atlanta Falcons
The Chiefs are actually slightly ahead of the Falcons in Awesemo’s top-stack rankings, but given the threat that they may pull their starters should the Patriots get up big against the Dolphins, we’re moving the second place Falcons to the top spot. It’s surprising to see the Falcons with such a middling total, up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and their under-performing secondary in Week 17, but the line for this one has been rising all week and I wouldn’t be surprised if it broke 50 by kickoff. As noted previously, one of the great benefits to stacking up the Calvin Ridley-less Falcons, is a concentrated target share between top options Julio Jones and Austin Hooper. Julio will of course get his ownership, but Hooper’s price point is prohibitive, given his recent lack of production since returning from injury and is coming it and under 5% on most slates.
The Bucs rank 23rd in DVOA against TEs this year, and 19th against #1 WRs, and we know that with their #1 ranked run defence, the way to beat them is through the air. Bring back options on the Buccaneers side are plentiful. Both Justin Watson (2nd in routes run last week, 92% snap share) and OJ Howard are cheap. Breshad Perriman is a boom-bust option whose lack of targets make him a poor value at his current price point.
NFL DFS Value Stack: Kansas City Chiefs
Value rank: First
Stacking the Chiefs this week will be tricky because they might rest their starters towards the end of their matchup against the LA Chargers, should the New England Patriots get up big on the Miami Dolphins (they’re 16 point favorites). Of course, that fear is what’s causing shorter ownership numbers than we were expecting heading in. Right now, Awesemo has Patrick Mahomes projected for 6% ownership, but the odds of a Mahomes led stack taking down top honors on the slate are at 10%, so you’re getting some leverage on the field, in addition to the value.
Of course, the Mahomes pairing options are obvious with Travis Kelce and Tyreek Hill (just 4% owned) at the top. Though Chargers safety Derwin James was outstanding against opposing TEs last season, he’s seen just six coverage snaps this year, so you needn’t worry about the matchup. Sammy Watkins has the best matchup on the Chiefs, against Chargers slot corner Desmond King, who ranks dead last in the NFL among qualified corners, with a 133 passer rating allowed.
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NFL DFS Contrarian Stack: The Los Angeles Chargers
If you’ve watched Philip Rivers throw a football over the past month, you’re probably not too excited about rostering the Chargers against an improved Chiefs secondary, buoyed by a rejuvenated Tyrann Mathieu. Awesemo has a Rivers led Chargers stack projected for 2.4%, with a 4.5% chance of taking down the top ranked fantasy performance of the day. Pairing options include Hunter Henry, who received his highest target share since Week 11 against the Chiefs (6-69), last week; the underpriced Keenan Allen, who should see some Kendall Fuller in the slot (122 passer rating allowed); and Mike Williams who leads the NFL in average targeted air-yards. If you want to talk a walk down narrative street, this might be Rivers’ last game in a Chargers uniform.
