With everything happening in the world right now, most major sports have been put on a temporary hiatus. As someone who counts on sports to provide a distraction from the problems and anxieties of the world, this is a very difficult time for me. And when things are tough for me, I tend to do the one thing I love doing more than anything in this world: write. The NFL Draft is quickly approaching, and free agency is even closer. That means that we finally will have notable storylines to discuss for fantasy football. I thought it would be an ideal time to take a look at some of the incoming rookies and break down their strengths, weaknesses and which teams would be the best fits for them. It is never too early to prepare for fantasy football, after all.
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Quarterback
Joe Burrow, LSU
The slam-dunk No. 1 pick of the draft, Burrow put together one of the greatest collegiate seasons of all time last year, throwing for 5,671 yards, 60 touchdowns, six interceptions and a 76.3 percent completion rate. There haven’t been many quarterbacks to come out with better touch than Burrow, who displayed gaudy accuracy last year. He posted an 81.9 percent adjusted completion percentage, per Pro Football Focus, while sporting the highest percentage of on-target passes since PFF began charting such plays.
Burrow definitely benefited from the presence of Joe Brady, as well as a fantastic cast of play makers, which definitely played a role in his huge second season at LSU. But he averaged 10.8 yards per attempt and was very impressive when the pocket collapsed. Assuming he goes to the Bengals, that is notable, as Cincinnati signal callers averaged 2.3 seconds in the pocket between the snap and throwing the ball, or having the pocket collapse. It was tied for the lowest number in football, while the Bengals offensive line also sported an 8.4 percent adjusted sack rate, the sixth-worst rate in the NFL. Things should be better with Jonah Williams, the team’s top pick in last year’s draft, hopefully healthy. He missed all of his rookie campaign.
The only real knock on Burrow’s game is his questionable arm strength but he more than makes up for it with elite accuracy. He’ll be the Bengals new franchise quarterback and an interesting streamer for fantasy in Zac Taylor’s West Coast offense. His accuracy would fit well in this system, and a receiving corps of A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, John Ross and Auden Tate would be nothing to scoff at.
Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama
One of the biggest storylines of the draft, many people had Tagovailoa as the No. 1 player in this class before suffering his injuries. Over the last year, Tagovailoa has dealt with an ankle sprain, a concussion and most notably, a fractured hip that is a very serious injury. As a result, he played just nine games last season, though he was once again fantastic, completing 71.4 percent of his passes and tossing 33 touchdowns to just three interceptions. And, of course, his 2018 campaign was incredible, throwing for nearly 4,000 yards, 43 touchdowns and six interceptions and adding 190 yards and an additional five scores on the ground. When right, Tagovailoa is right there with Burrow as a prospect.
His footwork is sensational and has a lightning quick release when throwing the football. Tagovailoa has the potential to be a deadly play-action passer and takes care of the football, sporting a career touchdown-to-interception ratio of 8:1. The biggest weakness, of course, is the durability, as Tagovailoa isn’t the biggest guy in the world, and we already highlighted the injuries he’s dealt with. And this hip issue could certainly impact him going forward. I also would like to see him perform better under pressure, as he’ll panic at times. He can do a great job of escaping the pass rush and extending the play, but his decision-making when out of the pocket isn’t always ideal. He also tends to hold onto the ball a bit too long, similar to someone like Deshaun Watson, which can result in magical plays, as well as disastrous ones.
A popular landing spot for Tagovailoa is fifth overall to the Dolphins, who obviously need a future answer at quarterback. If that is the case, he’ll probably be an easy-avoid at a deep quarterback position in fantasy this season. Miami lacks elite play makers, something Tagovailoa had during his career at Alabama, and the offensive line is very much a work in progress.
Justin Herbert, Oregon
Where Burrow and Tagovailoa have plenty of touch, Herbert struggles a bit in that department. His arm strength is possibly the best in this class but his accuracy is still a work in progress. The overall completion rate from last year (66.8%) is a bit misleading, as his receivers didn’t offer him much help, dropping 7.4 percent of his attempts, one of the worst rates in the nation. And at 6-foot-6, 236 pounds, Herbert has the ideal frame for an NFL quarterback while providing some mobility, despite the size. Of course, “some” is the operative word, as Herbert definitely struggled to escape from blitzes and pressure over the last few seasons.
The upside for Herbert is massive and it’ll be interesting to see where he lands, as an upgrade to NFL talent should do wonders for him. A popular landing spot is the Chargers, which would provide him with elite skill players, though he may not start right away. The Bolts have Tyrod Taylor, who is an ideal stop gap quarterback while Herbert develops.
Jordan Love, Utah State
A very raw prospect, Love can wow you on one play and force you to scratch your head the next. He doesn’t fear any throw, which can be both a pro and a con. The decision-making was very questionable at times last year, as Love tossed 17 interceptions, throwing multiple picks in six games. Love completed just 32 percent of his deep passes in 2019 and I expect him, whenever he plays, to be an up-and-down signal caller. He plays with that backyard football style, which is both exciting and absolutely terrifying. Pick 34 overall to the Colts makes sense as a landing spot, though he may not play his rookie year, as Indianapolis still loves Jacoby Brissett and veteran Philip Rivers has been a popular candidate to join the team.
Running Back
D’Andre Swift, Georgia
Perhaps the top running back in this class, Swift is a strong candidate to be the first back taken this April. My favorite quality in a running back is vision and Swift sees the field extremely well, especially in tight spaces. But perhaps his best attribute is his ability to stick his foot into the ground and change direction with ease, which led to countless defenders grabbing air when trying to tackle him. That ability will also make him a strong pass-catcher out of the backfield, as Swift hauled in 73 balls during his time at Georgia and dropped three passes. While he does need a bit of work in pass protection, Swift has three-down potential right away.
He did play behind an elite offensive line, which wouldn’t at all be the case if he landed in Miami, who has five picks in the first two rounds. 26 percent of the runs by the Dolphins last year were stuffed at the line of scrimmage, the highest rate in the league. So if Swift landed in Miami, he would have to do a lot more after contact than he did in Georgia. And per PFF, Swift ranked just 37th in yards after contact and his 40 missed tackles forced were 56th.Of course, given their depth chart, he’d likely instantly slide into a near every-down role, which is very important for fantasy. If not the Dolphins, I’d love him with the Falcons, who have moved on from Devonta Freeman.
Jonathan Taylor, Wisconsin
I feel like most people have Taylor as the No. 1 back in this class and it is hard to blame them. At 5-foot-10, 226 pounds, Taylor has an ideal frame for a workhorse back and his 4.39 speed gives him breakaway ability. Once he gets to the edge, defenders are going to have a tough time tracking down this former track star. Despite running fast, Taylor will play slow, allowing the holes and blocks to develop. His patience and vision are fantastic and he possesses tremendous balance through the holes and contact.
Taylor has plenty of experience carrying the load, as he’s accumulated a whopping 926 carries during his three-year tenure at Wisconsin. That can be viewed as a positive and negative, as that volume could raise some concerns regarding his long-term durability. I could have easily seen Taylor land in Tennessee if the Titans decided not to pay Derrick Henry. He would have fit well in an offense that called run 48.7 percent of the time last year, good for the third-highest rate in football. Regardless, Taylor has a great shot at being the 1.01 in dynasty drafts and someone worthy of coming off the board in the first five rounds in seasonal leagues.
J.K. Dobbins, Ohio State
Dobbins was extremely productive last year, rushing for 2,003 yards on 301 attempts (6.7 yards per carry) and scoring 23 total touchdowns for the Buckeyes. He is a smooth pass catcher out of the backfield, possessing great footwork on his routes, making him a matchup nightmare for opposing linebackers. There is plenty of big play potential with Dobbins, who, according to PFF, recorded more runs of 15-plus yards than any other player in the nation last year.
I like how Dobbins runs low and can bounce off initial contact and his balance is fantastic. His biggest issue is pass protection, where Dobbins often needs additional help to slow down rushers. That is something he will need to improve on during camp and preseason if he wants to earn a starting job in year one, but his pass-catching prowess will likely keep him as a third-down back candidate. Dobbins could very well find himself in Tampa Bay alongside Ronald Jones, who also has pass-pro inconsistencies. Outside of that, I think the Lions will be adding running back help on days two and three of the draft since Kerryon Johnson has had some trouble staying healthy.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, LSU
More quick than fast, Edwards-Helaire isn’t someone who will fly past opposing defenders. But he is still a damn good running back, especially in the passing game. He is a very good route-runner and can make plays after the catch with the ball in his hands. Edwards-Helaire gets low to the ground and has fantastic lateral quickness, which can also helps teams in the return game, as he averaged a strong 22 yards per return during his collegiate career. The knocks are his size (5-foot-7, 207 pounds), which results in average power in short-yardage situations. I could see him being in a limited role, at least for the first year of his career, with pass-catching potential in the right situation.
Cam Akers, Florida State
Akers is a bit tough to figure out. He didn’t break a ton of long runs throughout his career but the Florida State offensive line wasn’t too hot. Akers forced 74 missed tackles last season and is a runner who certainly isn’t afraid to initiate the contact. As a result, he isn’t a stranger to coughing up the football, as Akers lost 10 fumbles during his three years at Florida State. His vision is also less than ideal, and there was definitely a lack of explosive plays.
Wide Receiver
Jerry Jeudy, Alabama
I’m a sucker for a receiver who knows how to run routes and Jeudy is an artist in that department. He can change speeds effortlessly, and his footwork and athleticism should allow him to get open very often at the next level. His acceleration makes him a deadly deep threat but he can stop on an absolute dime when he needs to, which makes him such a dangerous route-runner. And once the ball in his hands, he often looks like a running back, running with power and great lateral agility. Jeudy is the most complete wideout in this loaded class, which is why he’ll come off the boards in the first 15 picks of the draft.
The Raiders and Jets make a lot of sense as potential landing spots, both of who have glaring needs at the wide receiver position. The Jets are likely going to let Robby Anderson walk, which would leave them with Jamison Crowder and Quincy Enunwa to lead their pass-catchers. Jeudy would immediately slide in as the WR1 and would command a hefty share of targets.
CeeDee Lamb, Oklahoma
If you are looking for a wideout to win contested catch battles, look no further than Lamb. Over the last two seasons, Lamb hauled in 10-of-17 contested catch situations and led the nation last season with 3.99 yards per route run. His ball-tracking skills are absolutely elite, as Lamb has the ability to contort his body in mid air and make all of the adjustments necessary to come down with the football. There isn’t a better receiver at the catch point in this class and Lamb made plenty of big plays, averaging 21.4 yards per reception in 2019. He was also dangerous after the catch, forcing 26 missed tackles on 62 receptions.
Personally, Lamb is my favorite receiver in this draft class and I believe he has superstar potential in the NFL. The 49ers, who recently traded for the 13th overall pick, could be a suitor. The Jets, Raiders and Cowboys all make sense too.
Henry Ruggs III, Alabama
Speed, speed and more speed. Ruggs will be one of the fastest players in the NFL the second he gets drafted. He ran a blazing 4.27 40-yard dash and his speed will alter how opposing defenses will have to defend whatever team he ends up with. That speed alone is going to lead to him coming off the board in the first 20 picks of April’s draft, and Ruggs will be able to change a game instantly. Ruggs also has really strong, dependable hands that should make him a reliable target. He didn’t show much promise against bigger, physical corners, which is a slight concern, but you can move a player like Ruggs all over the formation.
Ruggs won’t be a No. 1 receiver for an offense like Jeudy or Lamb could be, which will result in inconsistent target totals. There are a lot of teams that are going to want Ruggs, though many of them will have to trade up to acquire him. A popular landing spot in many mocks is 15th overall to the Broncos, who have talked about adding more speed. And quite candidly, he’d be a perfect compliment to 2019’s breakout star, Courtland Sutton. One wins with size and contested catches and the other will take the top off the defense. Meanwhile, teams like the Eagles and Packers surely have interest and the fantasy potential might be higher there, but both teams would have to move up.
Justin Jefferson, LSU
Burrow put together one of the best collegiate seasons ever but Jefferson played a major role. The LSU product dominated from the slot in 2019, hauling in 111 balls for 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns. Per PFF, Jefferson operated out of the slot about 78 percent of the time this past season and will be able to make big catches in the middle of the field when you need them most, especially in tight windows.
Jefferson is still more than capable of lining up out wide, though he won’t create as much separation as he would on the inside. I think an ideal fit would be with the Green Bay Packers, who have not gotten any sort of consistent production out of either Geronimo Allison or Marquez Valdes-Scantling. The Eagles also make a lot of sense, as their slot man Nelson Agholor is a free agent and Jefferson would be such a big upgrade over anyone else there.
This receiver class is stacked. Guys like Jalen Reagor, Denzel Mims and Tee Higgins could also go in the late-first or second rounds and have potential. Mims has a fantastic combination of size and speed, while Higgins can tower over defenders at 6-foot-4, 216 pounds. I could see the Redskins going after someone like Higgins, who could fall to the third round since he didn’t participate at the combine.
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