The Awesemo NFL Fantasy Matchups Column with Adam Pfeifer: Game by Game Week 1 Breakdown (FREE)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Total: 52.5

Line: KC -3.5

Jaguars passing game

The former Super Bowl MVP is now in Jacksonville and while he isn’t someone you are looking to in redraft leagues, Nick Foles makes some sense as a cheaper DFS play this week. He obviously posted some strong numbers last year when under center, completing nearly 63 percent of his passes when under pressure and sporting a 72.7 percent completion rate on play-action passes. Of course, the system and supporting cast in Philadelphia is much better than his current environment but there is potential here in Week 1. Despite how good the Jaguars defense could be this year, there is no denying that Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs are going to score points. Last year, opponents averaged 39.7 pass attempts per game against the Chiefs, the most in the NFL.

They also surrendered 2.41 points per drive last season, the fifth-most in the league, while also allowing the most yards per drive at 39.57. Foles isn’t going to stretch the field but the Chiefs did allow the second-most completions per game last year (25.3) and with a potential uptick in volume if the Jags are point-chasing, the veteran quarterback is a viable option if you are looking to spend down at the position.

During the offseason, Dede Westbrook was one of my favorite breakout candidates. Jacksonville’s slot man is clearly Foles’ guy, as he was targeted on seven of his 10 pass attempts during the preseason dress rehearsal. It makes sense, too, as Foles has loved targeting the slot, doing so at the league’s sixth-highest rate over the past two seasons, per T.J. Hernandez of 4for4.com. And in Foles’ five regular season starts last season, Philadelphia slot man Nelson Agholor averaged seven targets per game. He’s a fantastic option this weekend, facing a Chiefs defense that is definitely lacking.

And no corner allowed more receptions in slot coverage last year than Kendall Fuller (56), while also allowing the third-most yards after the catch (298). That bodes well for Westbrook, who averaged 3.3 yards after the catch per target in 2018. Dede is a strong WR3/FLEX play and an incredible target on DK at a head-scratching $4,800 price tag. Outside of Dede, I can’t trust the other wide receivers from this offense, especially with the Marqise Lee and D.J. Chark dealing with injuries. However, Geoff Swaim isn’t the worst GPP dart at tight end because he is cheap, Foles has also heavily targeted the tight end position and rookie Josh Oliver is dealing with a hamstring injury.

Jaguars running game

Volume should absolutely be on Leonard Fournette’s side this season, just as long as he stays on the field. Fournette has missed 11 games due to injury or suspension over the last two years but he’s healthy now and in line for a big workload. Sure, the Jags could be playing from behind here but they will try to keep Mahomes and company off the field to start, and that means putting the ball in Fournette’s gut. And even if they are chasing points, Fournette is in line for more passing work with T.J. Yeldon and his 78 targets gone.

Kansas City surrendered nearly six receptions per game to opposing running backs last year, as well as the third-most fantasy points per game to the position. They also allowed the third-most receiving yards per game to running backs (56.4) and only the Cardinals allowed more rushing touchdowns per game last year than the Chiefs (1.3).

Chiefs passing game

In redraft leagues, you are not benching Patrick Mahomes. You’re just not. I don’t think I need to tell you why the league MVP needs to be in your starting lineup, regardless of matchup. However, do you have to pay up for him in daily leagues? No, probably not. Mahomes will never kill your lineup but he is (obviously) expensive and when he faced Jacksonville last year in Week 3, he tossed a pair of interceptions without throwing a touchdown pass. And the Jaguars were a bit underwhelming defensively last year, too. Of course, you can always play him in tournaments but he’s not a priority for me this weekend.

Tyreek Hill is honestly a player you should have some exposure to every week because he will literally break an entire slate. He also underwhelmed in this spot last season, catching four balls for just 61 yards. It is worth noting that Jalen Ramsey shadowed Hill on just over 51 percent of his routes in that game and defensive coordinator Todd Wash stated that he will travel with him during this game, too. Jacksonville allowed the sixth-fewest passing plays of at least 40 yards last year and the second-fewest plays of at least 20 yards. The matchup is poor but you aren’t benching Hill and he always warrants GPP consideration.

Sammy Watkins, meanwhile, is an easy pass for me. He’s more expensive than a ton of receivers I prefer on this slate, including the aforementioned Westbrook. Of course, Travis Kelce is the clear top tight end in fantasy and could benefit if Ramsey and A.J. Bouye limit Hill and Watkins on the outside. He had eight catches for 100 yards against the Jags in Week 5 of last year. I prefer George Kittle for $500 less but Kelce is rarely a bad play.

Chiefs running game

Damien Williams has been one of the most polarizing players in fantasy during the offseason. There have been conflicting reports about whether he’ll be the unquestioned top back in this offense but as long as he is, the fantasy upside is tremendous. From Weeks 14-17 of last year, Williams ranked third in fantasy points, averaging 21.8 per game. Of course, the signing of LeSean McCoy muddies things up a bit and creates even more questions regarding this backfield. The matchup is less-than-ideal but if Williams is “the guy”, $6,300 is too cheap of a price, especially playing in an offense that averaged 4.3 red zone trips per game in 2018. McCoy could steal some passing down work from Williams and could eventually eat into his workload in general. However, for Week 1, Williams likely leads the team in carries and red zone work.

Los Angeles Rams @ Carolina Panthers

Total: 50.5

Line: LAR -3

Rams passing game

Jared Goff has thrived in two seasons under Sean McVay, averaging 4,246 yards and 30 touchdown passes during that span. Perhaps no quarterback in the league has a better supporting cast around them than Goff and in an offense that has ranked top-five in points per game each of the last two years, he is certainly worth consideration in DFS lineups, especially against a Carolina secondary that can be had. The Panthers surrendered 1.9 passing touchdowns per game a season ago, good for the sixth-most in the NFL. They were also a poor red zone defense, allowing opponents to find the end zone on 70.2 percent of their trips, the sixth-highest rate in the league. Goff, meanwhile, finished second among all passers in red zone attempts in 2018 with 101, averaging just over six per contest.

When the Rams trio of receivers are all available, you have to know what you are looking for when selecting one. Robert Woods is always my preferred cash game option because of his safe floor. The USC product recorded 70 receiving yards or more in 12 different games last year, while catching at least five passes in the same number of contests. He lined up in the slot 55 percent of the time last year but that number was down to 31.1 percent with Cooper Kupp healthy in 2017.

Still, the Panthers allowed the eighth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers last year, while Woods will get an occasional carry or two. Kupp, meanwhile, has been the touchdown-scorer, finding the end zone six times in seven games last year. During those healthy games, he saw a solid 22 percent target share. The Rams use three-receiver sets 90 percent of the time and Kupp will operate out of the slot about 70 percent of the time. Assuming he is good to go and won’t be limited from last year’s ACL tear, fire him up as a high-end WR3.

Finally, Brandin Cooks is the best bet to reach the 100-yard mark from this offense, which is notable because you get that bonus on DraftKings. He’s not boom-or-bust, despite what people may think of him but he is often my least favorite of the Rams wideouts because he’ll see the most coverage from the opposing team’s toughest corner each week. James Bradberry is an above average corner and with Kupp and Woods cheaper, I prefer them to Cooks this week.

Rams running game

How many touches can we expect from Todd Gurley? That is the ultimate question, as the All-Pro running back missed time down the stretch last year with knee problems. All signs have been pointing towards the Rams scaling his workload back this season but even if he drops to 17 touches per game, there is still so much value there. The guy could score three times on just 15-17 touches, making him impossible to bench unless something happens. But I’ll likely pass on him in DFS because of the price and uncertainty, not to mention the Panthers are much better against the run.

Panthers passing game

Cam Newton suffered a foot injury in Week 3 of the preseason but all signs point towards him being under center in Week 1. If he’s not 100 percent over the foot sprain, Cam is someone I will likely avoid this week, especially if he can’t run as well. We know that is such a big part of his value, as he ranked second among quarterbacks in carries, third in carries per game (7.2), fifth in red zone carries (16) and third in rushing yards per game (34.9). The Rams have a pass rush that can hurt him, leading the league in pressure rate a season ago at 37.6 percent. A potentially hobbled Newton priced as the QB4 is probably someone I will let someone else play in the opening week.

As long as Newton is under center, I like both Carolina wideouts this week. Curtis Samuel has been a preseason superstar, torturing opposing corners and getting open at will. During the second half of the 2018 season, Samuel was a top-20 fantasy receiver, averaging over 12 fantasy points per game. He also found the end zone four times during that span. The usage is trending upwards and the Panthers use him in creative ways to get him in space. Los Angeles has good corners but Samuel is priced at $4,200 on DK this week, making him the WR38. Price included, he is one of my favorite receivers to target in Week 1.

D.J. Moore, meanwhile, still projects to be the number-one receiver in this offense and is a fine WR3. He’ll see coverage from some good corners, including Marcus Peters. But because Peters takes so many risks, he will give up some big plays, and Moore can create such plays. He averaged nearly eight yards after the catch last year, second-best in football. In daily leagues, he makes for an interesting tournament play, especially if Samuel ends up being chalky.

Panthers running game

You are never benching Christian McCaffrey. He played over 90 percent of the team’s snaps last year, while handling 95 percent of the running back touches. No running back saw more targets (124). There have been reports that the team wants to dial back his snaps this year, but not necessarily his touches. The only knock is the goal line upside, as there have also been reports that Carolina is looking for a backup tailback to take some short-yardage work away from McCaffrey, who is already competing with Newton for goal line looks.

Atlanta Falcons @ Minnesota Vikings

Total: 47.5

Line: MIN -4.5

Falcons passing game

The matchup is poor but Matt Ryan is a tough guy to get away from. He was so good last year, tossing 35 touchdowns and 4,924 yards. Ryan finished fourth in the league in adjusted yards per attempt (8.2) and fifth in air yards per attempt (4.7). This is a road game but it is a dome game where Ryan has been very good for fantasy purposes throughout his career. The Vikings surrendered the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing passers last year, while generating pressure at the seventh-highest rate in football (33.7 percent), which keeps Ryan from being a must-play in DFS. But assuming you selected him as your QB1 in drafts, it is hard to consider benching him.

Roster construction will allow you to pay up for anyone you want this week. There are so many cheap/mid range running backs to target, allowing you to spend for elite wideouts like Julio Jones. This slate is missing a lot of great wideouts, as guys like Davante Adams, JuJu Smith-Schuster and Antonio Brown all play in the night games. So if you want to play Julio, I won’t stop you. We finally saw a stretch of touchdowns last year and with Steve Sarkisian gone, the Falcons red zone play calling should be better.

Minnesota doesn’t present the greatest matchup but they did surrender 14 100-yard games a season ago, tied for the third-most in the NFL. Xavier Rhodes did shadow a bit last year but he’s an often banged up corner who isn’t the fastest. A guy averaging the most receiving yards per game in NFL history (96.7) always makes for a strong play on DK where you get that 100-yard bonus. Meanwhile, Calvin Ridley is likely due for some touchdown regression but he has shown the upside and is just $5,100. Minnesota allowed the second-fewest yards per game to opposing number-two receivers last year (32.0), making Ridley a low-end WR3 in seasonal formats.

Austin Hooper is a consensus top-10 tight end entering the season but he is priced as the TE13 for Week 1. The sure-handed Hooper sported an 82 percent catch rate last year and was top-five among all tight ends in routes run. He doesn’t have a huge yardage ceiling, especially in a poor matchup but he’s cheap enough on DraftKings to warrant consideration.

Falcons running game

I’m really into Devonta Freeman this year. Many people fear him because of injury concerns but he’s healthy now and is vastly underpriced on DK at $5,300. He should walk into 20 touches and all of the goal line work, while the departure of Tevin Coleman should lead to more passing work. Back in 2017, Freeman finished third in the league with 12 goal line carries and that was with Coleman in the picture. He’s a low-end RB2 against a Minnesota defense that allowed just 1.68 points per drive last year (3rd-fewest) and is a price play in daily leagues, though I do prefer other backs in his price range. Still, it is hard to pass up on 20 touches in a great offense.

Vikings passing game

It is really difficult to gauge this Falcons defense heading into 2019. You can’t just strictly look at their 2018 numbers because half of their defense was on injured reserve. Deion Jones, Keanu Neal and Ricardo Allen missed a combined 38 games a season ago. As a result, the Falcons allowed six yards per play (28th), 26.4 points per game (25th) and 2.44 points per drive (29th) in 2018. Having said all of that, Kirk Cousins is going to mess with me.

You likely didn’t draft him as a starter outside of 2-QB leagues but on DraftKings, he is only $5,500, priced right below Kyler Murray. The guys they’ll have back are all fantastic in coverage but Atlanta still lacks a pass rush, ranking 30th in pressure rate last year (26.4 percent), sporting a 5.9 percent sack rate (26th). Minnesota will look to establish the run this year but Cousins is very affordable and still has two of the best receivers in the game to throw to.

Speaking of the receivers, Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs are almost always priced right near each other. You know, except when Thielen is breaking records in the beginning of the year. Like many players in Week 1, both are too cheap, making them fine plays. I slightly worry about how run-heavy the Vikings could be and the fact that Thielen could get moved to the outside more in three-wide sets with Chad Beebe now the team’s number-three receiver. The Falcons will be better on defense this year but not good enough to worry about using either fantastic receiver at discounted price tags. Other than that, I really don’t love this spot for Kyle Rudolph. Deion Jones is legitimately the best cover linebacker in the league, allowing a 79.3 passer rating and just 56 catches on 81 targets in coverage back in 2017.

Vikings running game

Dalvin Cook is one of the best plays of the week. Period. They are committed to feeding him this season and looked good in the preseason, ripping off an 85-yard touchdown. He’s an auto-play and a borderline top-five running back in redraft leagues and an elite play at just $6,000 on DraftKings. Atlanta allowed 7.6 catches per game to opposing running backs last year, easily the most in the NFL. They led the league in that department in 2017, too. It isn’t so much a personnel issue as it is a scheme issue and the Falcons just haven’t figured out how to cover running backs in the passing game.

Minnesota is going to put the ball in Cook’s gut, as he averaged over 16 touches per game when healthy during the final seven weeks of last year and now Latavius Murray is gone. The Vikings averaged nearly 27 rushing attempts per game over the final seven weeks of the year and they will look to get Cook going early and often in 2019.

Washington Redskins @ Philadelphia Eagles

Total: 46

Line: PHI -9

Redskins passing game

Case Keenum will be the starting quarterback for the Redskins in Week 1.

Good for him.

Keenum had his magical run with Minnesota but came back down to earth in 2018 with the Broncos. Washington’s aerial attack projects to be one of the worst in all of football so don’t expect to see me touting them very often this season. The Eagles were top-10 in passing touchdowns allowed per game (1.4), while serving as the best red zone defense in football, as opponents scored touchdowns on just 44.2 percent of trips against Philadelphia last year, the lowest rate in football. They also allowed the fewest points per red zone drip at 4.25 and this Washington offense will struggle to move the ball most weeks. If you have to rely on Keenum on opening weekend, well, I’m sorry, especially when his starting tackles are Donald Penn and the revolving door that is Ereck Flowers.

I have zero interest in any wide receiver from this offense in this matchup and perhaps over the course of the entire season outside of maybe second-year slot man, Trey Quinn. 2018’s final pick of the draft showed some signs during his two full games, hauling in nine-of-10 targets for 75 yards and a touchdown. With Jamison Crowder gone, Trey Quinn is set to serve as Washington’s slot receiver and we’ve seen Keenum rely on the slot over the course of his career and he can rack of receptions in a hurry, hauling in 114 passes in one season at SMU.

I don’t expect the Redskins to find much success running the football, especially with Trent Williams gone, while only the Jets and Saints allowed more receptions per game to wide receivers last year. If Jordan Reed (concussion) can’t suit up, you could find some tight end value with Vernon Davis or Jeremy Sprinkle, though you probably don’t even need to go there. If Reed does play, I don’t mind him, as the weakest part of this Philadelphia defense is their linebackers.

Redskins running game

Washington is going to use multiple running backs, at least to start the season. That means, despite how strong Derrius Guice has looked in limited action, that I can’t trust any of these guys in my starting lineup. Adrian Peterson was top-five in carries last year as a 34-year old and the team brought him back. He and Guice will take turns running into the heart of arguably the best run defense in football. The Eagles allowed just five 100-yard rushers last year and four were from Saquon Barkley and Ezekiel Elliott.

Teams hardly tried running on Philadelphia, as opponents called run 33.5 percent of the time, the lowest rate in the league. And per Football Outsiders, 26 percent of the carries against the Eagles were stuffed, the second-highest rate in football. Guice is a great talent and his price tag across the daily fantasy industry will be so much higher halfway through the season. But there is already enough value, making it unnecessary to go to this Redskins backfield.

Eagles passing game

If healthy, Carson Wentz is in line for an MVP-caliber year once again. The Eagles have one of the best supporting casts in all of football, possessing an elite offensive line and deep group of weapons. I like him a lot in tournaments this week because he’s priced at $5,700 on DK, just ahead of the viable cheaper options. You won’t see him at this price very often and while the matchup is middling, the Eagles do have one of the highest team totals of the slate. The Redskins allowed 7.1 yards per pass attempt last year, 23rd in the league, while Wentz has ranked fifth and fourth in air yards per attempt over the last two seasons (4.7, 4.4). He is a mid-range QB1 this weekend and a compelling GPP option in DFS.

It is going to be tough to figure out which Eagles pass-catcher is going to have the best day. Usually it’ll be Zach Ertz, who is always in play and is the cheapest of the Big Three at tight end. New Redskins safety Landon Collins has always had issues in coverage and Ertz can take advantage. I prefer Kelce and George Kittle but Ertz is obviously still a strong play.

Alshon Jeffery, meanwhile, is rarely someone I use in DFS because there isn’t a huge ceiling. Jeffery has finished 25th and 35th among receivers in market share (21.6 and 19.5 percent), while seeing double-digit targets just twice last year. When these teams played in Week 17, Josh Norman shadowed Jeffery on nearly 86 percent of his routes but Norman is starting to fall off, surrendering nearly 14 yards per catch in 2019 to go along with 9.5 yards per target. The Redskins also allowed the ninth-most fantasy points and yards to wideouts last year. I still feel more comfortable with Alshon as my WR/FLEX due to lack of elite volume.

The only other Philadelphia receiver that makes sense is DeSean Jackson, who returns to the city of brotherly love and faces his former team. I think the Eagles take some shots to DJax right away, who can essentially pay off his price tag on one play. Wentz is inside the top-10 in deep passing touchdown rate over the last two years and will look for his new toy a few times here.

Eagles running game

Miles Sanders continues to impress seemingly everyone but this is another backfield that will use multiple guys. In the 48 regular season games since Doug Pederson took over as the Eagles coach, there have only been 17 instances where a running back reached the 15-carry mark (35 percent). Jordan Howard and Sanders will both be involved, with the former likely to see the goal line work. Neither interest me much in DFS given the uncertainty in workload but both are definitely lower-end FLEX options as big home favorites against a Washington run defense that allowed 34.3 yards per drive (eighth-most) and allowed opponents to convert on 44 percent of third downs, the fourth-most in the league.

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