Indianapolis Colts @ Los Angeles Chargers
Total: 47.5
Line: LAC -7
Chargers passing game
This entire game obviously changes but more on that later. Los Angeles hosts the Colts this weekend and Philip Rivers is once again under center for the Chargers. It is a middle-of-the-road matchup but Rivers is under $6,000 over on DK and we could see more possessions than usual for the Chargers if the Colts offense is less efficient without Andrew Luck. Indianapolis led the NFL in seconds per play a season ago (26.3) and while they may still play fast without Luck under center, they probably won’t be able to sustain drives as often. With Melvin Gordon away from the team, the Chargers could go more pass-heavy, which would help Rivers’ upside.
The Colts allowed 6.6 net yards per pass attempt last year, the 10th-most in football, while Rivers finished fourth in the league in adjusted air yards per attempt at 8.2. Because quarterback is so deep, Rivers remains a back-end QB1 for me this week but could be a nice cheap daily option in a matchup that has gotten much better over the last week or so.
Keenan Allen is a PPR machine, averaging 99.5 catches, 1,294 yards and six touchdowns over the last two seasons. His 29.2 percent target share from 2018 was second among all receivers and his elite route-running ability helps him get open at will. The only knock is his lack of touchdowns, ranking 59th in end zone target share last year at 18.4 percent. The Colts have a solid defense but no one that can shut down Allen, especially with over 55 percent of his routes coming from the slot. He’s a back-end WR1 for opening week.
Mike Williams is the more interesting one because his touchdown rate is obviously going to come down (43 catches, 10 TD). He led the Chargers with a 27.3 percent end zone target share and he used his size to catch 50 percent of contested targets. Hunter Henry will take end zone looks away but Tyrell Williams’ departure opens up 65 targets. He’ll likely see plenty of coverage from Kenny Moore, a solid corner but one who stands at 5’9”, 185 pounds. Williams is 6’4”, 220 pounds. The middling overall targets make him a WR3 or FLEX but the upside in touchdowns and big plays (14.6 aDOT in 2018) keep him on the GPP radar.
Finally, Hunter Henry is back from his torn ACL and is ready to breakout. Another guy with serious touchdown potential, Henry has seen a whopping 20 end zone targets in 29 career regular season games and when we last saw him in 2017, he averaged a gaudy 0.50 fantasy points per route. We know Rivers has leaned on the tight end position over the years and this matchup is solid, as the Colts allowed the most receiving yards per game to tight ends last year (74.6), as well as the most receptions per game (6.4) and fourth-most fantasy points per game (12.3).
Chargers running game
Austin Ekeler is set to be the team’s lead back with Melvin Gordon still holding out. Ekeler has been one of the most efficient backs in football since entering the league, averaging over five yards per carry and nearly eight yards per touch. When Gordon went down last year, Ekeler averaged 17.5 touches per game, while also averaging around 43 snaps per game. Justin Jackson, meanwhile, logged just 40 total snaps during those three games. The matchup truly doesn’t matter because Ekeler is going to see 15-17 touches per game in a great offense at just $5,500. He’ll be a top-15 running back for me this weekend.
Colts passing game
Wow.
Andrew Luck shocked the world by retiring the night of the Colts third preseason game. It sent shockwaves around the NFL. Obviously, this is going to hurt this entire team but it does open up opportunity for Jacoby Brissett. Many will cite Brissett’s numbers as the starter back in 2017 but it was under an entirely different system and in an entirely different situation. Chuck Pagano and Rob Chudzinski were running the offense then, while the offensive line was the worst in football, surrendering a league-worst 52 sacks. Brissett was under duress on just over 40 percent of his dropbacks.
Fast forward to 2019 and the Colts have an elite offensive line, as Luck was under pressure just 29.5 percent of the time last year, the seventh-lowest rate in football. Brissett also has way more weapons, now throwing to Eric Ebron, Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell, alongside T.Y. Hilton. Brissett could be a strong punt quarterback play at just $4,400 on DK. He was the QB20 in fantasy scoring in 2017 in a very bad situation and now things are much better. He’ll also give you some points with his legs, ranking fifth among all passers in carries (64), sixth in rushing touchdowns (4) and fourth in red zone carries (15) during that 2017 season.
T.Y. Hilton goes from a must-start, top-12 fantasy wide receiver to a back-end WR2 for fantasy purposes. Hilton posted career-lows in touchdowns in 2017 with four, while failing to reach the 1,000-yard mark for the first time since his rookie year in 2012. He did see a 23 percent target share that season but again, the Colts added more players to catch passes since then. The poor offensive line kept Hilton from making big plays down the field, as he averaged just 8.9 yards per target and 1.89 yards per pass route.
It is hard to love him going forward and especially in Week 1 if Casey Hayward shadows him. Hayward shadowed most perimeter receivers last year but didn’t move inside all that much. Still, Hilton lined up in the slot just 28 percent of the time last year. It is a poor spot and with Brissett under center, you won’t want to use Funchess or Campbell because, well, you weren’t planning on using them anyway.
The tight ends are a bit more interesting. Luck has targeted his tight ends as much as any quarterback in the NFL since entering the league. 56 percent of his touchdown passes from last year went to the tight end position. We know the Colts will use multiple tight ends and while Eric Ebron had the monster season in 2018, we have to remember that Jack Doyle missed a lot of time.
Ebron played just 27.3 snaps per game when Doyle was active compared to 47 without him in the lineup. It is worth noting that Brissett and Doyle had a bit of a rapport in 2017, as the tight end ranked second at his position in target share (24.6 percent), while ranking sixth in red zone target share (26.3 percent). Given the price difference, give me Doylein daily formats, while both are now in the TE2 status in seasonal leagues.
Colts running game
I loved Marlon Mack entering the season and while I don’t think his value completely diminishes without Luck, it definitely hurts. We saw reports that Mack was going to be used more in the passing game but if that isn’t true, you need as many first and second downs as possible from him. They likely go down without Luck under center for the Colts, while the scoring chances drop. Mack had 10 goal line carries in just 12 games last year, scoring 10 times and handling 67 percent of the team’s carries from inside the five-yard line.
Last year, the Colts offense was fourth in the NFL in red zone trips per game (3.9) but back in 2017, they ranked 25th with just 2.5 per game. That definitely hurts. The Chargers did allow the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields in 2018 and Mack is underpriced on DK. But in that price range, he’s easily one of the least-exciting options now.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Seattle Seahawks
Total: 43.5
Line: SEA -7.5
Bengals passing game
Given the matchup and absence of A.J. Green, it is extremely difficult to like Andy Dalton this week. Green will miss the few weeks of the season with a foot injury and in three games without Green last year, Dalton averaged 155 passing yards and 1.6 touchdowns. There just isn’t much upside with Dalton without Green, especially in a matchup against a Seattle team that plays slow, averaging 29.1 seconds per play a season ago. As a result, opposing offenses averaged just 60.2 plays per game against the Seahawks, the third-fewest in the league. Sure, new head coach Zac Taylor should make this offense more creative but there is no reason for Dalton to be in any fantasy lineups this weekend. And even though he is very, very cheap, daily players can find better options, such as Brissett for even less.
With Green sidelined, Tyler Boyd is the unquestioned top target in this passing game. He should continue to operate out of the slot, as he lined up there 70.3 percent of the time in the games Green missed in 2018. Cincinnati’s quarterbacks sported an awesome 122.0 QB rating when targeting Boyd last year, the eighth-best mark among all receivers. The matchup isn’t fantastic but he should see all the targets and the Bengals should be forced to throw, entering this game as over touchdown underdogs.
Boyd is a WR3 option and a viable DFS option at just $5,800 on DK. Good luck with the rest of the receivers, however. Undrafted rookie Damion Willis is going to be the starting X receiver in this offense, which makes you feel a lot better about Boyd’s target projection. You aren’t using him in any leagues and although he is minimum price, you don’t need straight up punts on this slate.
Bengals running game
I love Joe Mixon as a player but I can’t say I’m in love with him this week. The pace is going to be slow and the Bengals should be forced to throw, limiting the volume upside for Mixon. Seattle also surrendered just 0.6 rushing touchdowns per game last year, while just 26.1 percent of the touchdowns scored against them came on the ground, the sixth-lowest rate in football. Only five rushers reached the 100-yard mark against them and they were all top tier guys in Ezekiel Elliott, Todd Gurley, Christian McCaffrey, Melvin Gordon and Damien Williams. Mixon is an easy avoid for me in daily leagues and more of a low-end RB2 in seasonal formats.
Seahawks passing game
This is an absolute smash spot for the entire Seattle offense and I think an onslaught situation is firmly in play. Cincinnati bears one of the worst defenses in all of football. In 2018, they surrendered 6.1 yards per play (3rd-most), 413.6 total yards per game (most), 6.8 third down conversions per game (most) and 2.56 points per drive (2nd-most). Meanwhile, only the Chiefs allowed more yards per drive (38.1). This Bengals defense coughed up a ton of big plays last year, surrendering 13 passing plays of at least 40 yards, the fourth-most in football. They also allowed 11.3 yards per completion, the third-most in the league.
That bodes extremely well for Russell Wilson, who is an elite deep ball thrower. In 2018, Wilson completed 46.7 percent of his deep passes, the second-highest rate in the league, while his 75 total deep attempts ranked fourth. Cincinnati also allowed the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing passers a season ago, making Wilson one of the top overall quarterback plays of the slate. People worry that his deep ball connection with Tyler Lockett will regress but I don’t think it starts in Week 1.
Speaking of Lockett, you have to like him as well. All of those numbers coincide with Lockett, who led all receivers in yards per target last year at 13.6. Over 27 percent of his targets from 2018 came 20 yards or more down the field. If he sees any coverage from Dre Kirkpatrick, I love his chances, as Kirkpatrick is a slow corner (4.57 40-time) and surrendered a catch rate of 52.4 percent in 2018, the fourth-worst among qualified corners. And now with D.K. Metcalf banged up and David Moore sidelined, this passing game becomes very concentrated and Lockett should see at least 25 percent of the team targets.
This stack has an insane amount of upside this weekend but Jaron Brown could also be in play as a cheap DFS option. He is the unquestioned number-two receiver in Seattle and has some upside, scoring five times on just 14 receptions last year. That obviously isn’t sustainable but he’s in line for the most targets he’s seen in quite some time
Seahawks running game
Lock Chris Carson into any and all lineups this week and don’t look back. We love running backs that are home favorites and Carson fits the bill. He has assured Seattle that this is his backfield and gets an elite matchup. The Bengals allowed the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs last year, as well as 1.1 rushing scores per game. Seattle should be able to control this game and as such big favorites, Carson is almost a lock for 20 carries. The Seahawks called run at the highest rate in the league last year and I don’t expect that to change. Per Football Outsiders, just 14.3 percent of the rushes against the Bengals last year ended up being stuffed, the second-lowest rate in the league. Carson is in a smash spot and is arguably the best running back play in the $5,000-$6,000 range over on DraftKings.
Detroit Lions @ Arizona Cardinals
Total: 47.5
Line: DET -2.5
Lions passing game
I’m having difficulty with Matthew Stafford this week. The Lions offense is going to be slow and focus more on the running game, something that has basically never happened in Stafford’s career. That is a turn off. However, Stafford is cheap across the industry and Arizona’s new offensive scheme will be a fast one, which helps him. The Cardinals are also going to be missing some key guys from their defense, which enhances the matchup. Arizona will be without their top two corners, as Patrick Peterson is suspended and Robert Alford will miss an extended period of time with a broken leg.
Their de facto starting corners will likely be Tramaine Brock and rookie Byron Murphy. Despite the sluggish offense he’s in, Stafford does set up nicely here an the weapons at his disposal are strong. He’s likely to go overlooked this weekend and could be an intriguing quarterback to stack a Detroit wideout with.
So which receiver is it? If you know me, you know I love Marvin Jones and because he is significantly cheaper than Kenny Golladay across the industry, he’s the guy I’ll look to. He is just $4,800 on DK and has some strong touchdown equity, as no player in football sported a higher end zone target share last year than Jones (54.2 percent). He is $1,200 cheaper than Golladay on DK and because I think their end-of-season numbers are similar, I’ll gladly take the savings. Of course, that isn’t to say Golladay is a bad play.
Many are expecting him to take a big step in his third season and he has about five or six inches on both of Arizona’s starting corners. Stafford will take shots to both of these guys, as Golladay was responsible for 37.5 percent of Detroit’s air yards last year (4th), while Jones was at 35.8 percent back in 2017 when he was fully healthy (10th). There is upside in stacking Stafford with one of these talented wide receivers.
Lions running game
Like the Bengals, the Cardinals were also unable to stop the run last year, setting Kerryon Johnson up nicely here in Week 1. Arizona coughed up a league-worst 154.9 rushing yards per game to go with 1.6 rushing scores per contest. 50 percent of the touchdowns scored against them came via the run, the highest rate in football. Teams called run 47.8 percent of the time against the Cardinals last year, which was the second-highest rate in the league.
The uptick in pace should give Kerryon an opportunity for more work and while I am slightly concerned with his preseason usage, Johnson is still a strong option this week. Arizona has some poor-tackling linebackers, including Hasson Reddick, who sported PFF’s eighth-worst tackle efficiency rating at his position last year. Johnson should be able to get the job done here but don’t be surprised if he falls into that 15-17-touch range, rather than the 20-plus.
Cardinals passing game
When pricing first launched, it absolutely looked like Kyler Murray was going to be chalk. And he still might, as $5,600 is a very intriguing price tag and the upside with a player like Murray is massive. The guy passed for 4,361 yards and 42 touchdown in college last year, while averaging an insane 11.6 yards per attempt. And, of course, he ran for just over 1,000 yards and 12 touchdowns. His ability is so enticing and he’s absolutely in play, especially at his price.
But I don’t think he’s in the most incredible spot, as the Lions should be able to get to the passer this year with Trey Flowers, Damon Harrison and Mike Daniels on that defensive line, while we know the Cardinals offensive line projects to be one of the worst in the league yet again. Detroit also has played a lot of zone coverage, which isn’t beneficial for running quarterbacks because defenders don’t have their back turned while covering in man.
Only the Broncos allowed fewer rushing yards per game to quarterbacks than the Lions last year (7.4), while holding the likes of Russell Wilson, Cam Newton, Mitchell Trubisky, Dak Prescott and Josh Allen under 20 rushing yards. He is in play due to his upside but Murray is not in a smash spot or anything.
While I’m good with Murray, I really don’t know if I love the Cardinals receivers. Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk and Andy Isabella are the main three targets and Arizona will run plenty of three-wide sets in this offense, so playing time shouldn’t be an issue. However, Kirk is going to see a good amount of Darius Slay, who allowed the 11th-fewest fantasy points per target last year at 1.40. He shadowed 11 different times last year and rarely moved inside, which means he won’t be on Fitzgerald as much, who lined up in the slot nearly 75 percent of the time last year. It is tough to expect exactly what this offense will look like right away because Kingsbury admitted that his preseason offense has been vanilla. But if ranking the Arizona wideouts for this week, I’d put the veteran at the top. He’s a low-end FLEX in PPR leagues.
Cardinals running game
The coaching change in Arizona should do wonders for David Johnson, who was used in some truly awful ways last year. The Cardinals would constantly just run him straight into the heart of opposing defensive lines, while his usage in the passing game was inconsistent. He finished 33rd among all qualified running backs in yards per route run (1.24) and during the first half of the season, Johnson was barely inside the top-10 among running backs in routes run.
He’ll be used in better and more creative ways this season and the Cardinals will operate out of the shotgun more, which could bode well for DJ, who averaged 6.3 yards per carry out of the shotgun back in 2016. This matchup isn’t fantastic, as the Lions run defense became elite after acquiring Damon Harrison last year. During the first seven weeks without him, Detroit allowed nearly 140 rushing yards per game. But from his Week 8 debut on, that number dropped to just 56 yards per game. You aren’t benching DJ but in DFS formats, I’m a bit hesitant because of the offensive mysteries and the matchup. I might be in the minority, but I prefer Le’Veon Bell for $600 cheaper and a handful of the $5,000-$6,000 backs.
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