The NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Column with Adam Pfeifer: Week 10 Game Breakdowns (FREE)

Los Angeles Rams @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Total: 44

Line: LAR -3.5

Rams passing game

The Rams are back from their bye and travel to Pittsburgh to take on a solid and improving Steelers defense. Jared Goff is coming off consecutive 25-point fantasy outings, though they were against the Bengals and Falcons, two of the best matchups you can possibly find. The Steelers are currently fourth in the league with a 27.7 percent pressure rate on the year, which doesn’t bode well for Goff, who is 41st in the league with a 41.2 percent completion rate when under pressure this season. He is also 30th with a 62.4 passer rating when under duress. This is a very below average matchup for Goff, who will also be missing one of his top playmakers for this game. I’m not crazy about him.

Despite my lack of interest in Goff, I definitely like Cooper Kupp. The reliable receiver is sporting a gaudy 27.8 percent market share this season, the fifth-highest rate among all receivers, and now Brandin Cooks is out with a concussion. Kupp has seen double-digit targets in five games this year and I think he makes it six this week, especially because I don’t see the Rams being able to run the ball very effectively here. The matchup is favorable, too, as the Steelers are actually coughing up the most fantasy points per game to the slot (29.8), where Kupp is still lining up nearly 75 percent of the time this season. Nickel corner Mike Hilton is allowing 0.58 fantasy points per coverage route this season, the third-most among all cornerbacks on the slate, while being targeted 22 percent of the time.

Robert Woods has been a disappointment this season. After having one of the highest floors in fantasy last season, Woods has reached the 50-yard mark just three times this season and has yet to find the end zone. In fact, he has the most targets among all receivers in football without a touchdown, telling me he is probably due. He should be able to see a fair amount of targets here, though he’ll have the toughest matchup against Joe Haden. Positive regression is on the way but I’d still view Woods as a high-end WR3 at the moment.

With Cooks sidelined, Josh Reynolds will have every opportunity to make some noise. The Rams run three-wide sets around 90 percent of the time, so the playing time should definitely be there. And in games where Reynolds saw at least five targets last season, he averaged a respectable 11 PPR fantasy points per game. If you are hurting at receiver, Reynolds is a viable option this week.

Tight end Gerald Everett continues to play more and more, topping 50 snaps in five of his last six games. The athletic Everett is a borderline top-12 tight end play due to how bad the position is and the fact that he could be more involved with Cooks hurt.

Rams running game

I’m a bit worried about Todd Gurley. He continues to score a fair share of touchdowns but ceded 13 touches to Darrell Henderson in a game that was actually close for a bit in London against the Bengals in Week 8. Gurley was apparently getting his knee looked at on the sideline and while he appears to be fine, it is obvious that the Rams are trying to keep him fresh for the playoff run, limiting his touches. This makes him a mid-range RB2 that is suddenly somewhat touchdown dependent and this matchup isn’t good. Pittsburgh is allowing the fifth-fewest rushing touchdowns per game this season (0.5) and sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.

Steelers passing game

Mason Rudolph should not be on your radar. He has looked awful since taking over at quarterback and now faces a Rams defense that already generates pressure at the third-highest rate in football (28.1 percent), and now they also have Jalen Ramsey to shutdown JuJu Smith-Schuster in the passing game. Thanks, but no thanks.

Speaking of JuJu, it is unclear whether the Rams will shadow him with Ramsey. He shadowed Julio Jones a few weeks back but they may not feel like they have to shadow JuJu given how this offense is constructed. Either way, I am not expecting big things from Smith-Schuster, as I see Rudolph being under pressure quite a bit this week. The Steelers did try to find ways to get him the ball last week, which keeps him in the low-end WR2 range but I am definitely not expecting much.

Vance McDonald returned to the end zone last week and tied a season-high with seven targets. He is still very difficult to trust but per usual, Pittsburgh will have a short passing game, which will benefit McDonald. And tight end is so bad that he remains a viable option if you are hurting at the position.

Steelers running game

James Conner missed last week’s games with a shoulder injury and Jaylen Samuels became the free square. He caught all 13 of his targets against the Colts and handled three of the team’s four carries from inside the five-yard line. The Steelers are optimistic that Conner can return this week and if he does, you have to plug him right back into your lineup as a solid RB2. If he’s out, Samuels is once again a borderline top-15 play in PPR leagues because this team does not throw the ball down the field, and likely won’t be able to in this game. Running backs have seen 25 percent of Pittsburgh’s targets this season.