The NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Column with Adam Pfeifer: Week 10 Game Breakdowns (FREE)

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints

Total: 51.5

Line: NO -13

Falcons passing game

After missing last week’s game with a sprained ankle, Matt Ryan should be good to return this week in New Orleans. The projection for Ryan won’t change most weeks for me, as he plays on a terrible team that should continue to be chasing points. As a result, Ryan is averaging just over 40 pass attempts per game, while the Falcons are throwing the football 71 percent of the time, the highest rate in the NFL. Heading into New Orleans as huge dogs, I expect another 40 pass attempts for Ryan, especially against the Saints and their pass funnel defense. 73.3 percent of the yards surrendered by the Saints has come through the air, the sixth-highest rate in the league. Meanwhile, a whopping 82.2 percent of the total yards accumulated by this Atlanta offense have been via the pass, the highest rate in football. Given that expected volume, the 300-yard bonus has essentially been a lock for Ryan, as he’s reached that mark in all but one game this season. Keep using Ryan as a volume-driven, high-upside top-seven quarterback and at his $6,100 price tag, he’ll be one of my highest-owned passers for the week.

It was nice to see Julio Jones still put together a strong game last week with Matt Schaub under center. The All-Pro wideout caught 10 passes for 152 yards against the Seahawks and has now been over 90 yards in each of his last three games. He still hasn’t scored a touchdown since Week 3 and it is still odd to see Julio outside of the top-20 among receivers in target share. Perhaps that number continues to climb with Mohamed Sanu now in New England. In their last game, Jones was in the slot 34.9 percent of the time, which is up about 15 percent from his season number. Julio will likely see shadow coverage from Marshon Lattimore, who has been one of the best corners in football over the last four weeks. However, Jones has had success against him in the past and Lattimore is still surrendering the ninth-most yards (478) in coverage on the year, though it is worth noting that since Week 5, he’s allowed just 98 yards in coverage and zero touchdowns. Still, you aren’t benching Julio and he is at a very nice price tag at $7,500 on DK.

In his first game without Sanu, Calvin Ridley lined up in the slot 12 times, which doesn’t sound like much, but it was the most he’s been in the slot all year long and the third-most of his career. If they continue to use him more in the slot, Ridley will be more consistent for fantasy, as he’ll run shorter routes and have better matchups. And because the Falcons offensive line has been so poor this year, Ryan has had to get the ball out of his hands quicker. The Saints are coughing up the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season and Ridley should be plenty involved to warrant mid-range WR2 consideration.

We also saw Russell Gage get some run with Sanu out of the picture. He played 57 percent of the snaps, while lining up in the slot 77 percent of the time. He saw eight targets from Schaub and if the Falcons end up chasing points here, it is possible he sees another five or six looks. Why does this matter? Well, the guy is incredibly cheap across the industry and allows you to spend up for the high-end running backs on this slate. The Saints, meanwhile, are allowing 31.3 points per game to the slot this year, the third-most in the league, according to Pro Football Focus. Gage isn’t the worst GPP punt this week.

Finally, Austin Hooper should continue to be an elite tight end option. He scored again last week, giving him three straight games with a touchdown and five on the season. Hooper is on pace for 100 catches, 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns, as the young tight end has been unreal. Despite having his bye, Hooper leads all tight ends in receptions (52), while ranking second in touchdowns, second in yards (591), first in end zone targets (6), first in 100-yard games (2) and third in fantasy points per snap (0.31). The Saints have only allowed one tight end touchdown this season but they have faced absolutely no one. New Orleans has played the Texans, Rams, Seahawks, Cowboys, Buccaneers, Jaguars, Bears and Cardinals, all teams that do not have a highly-involved tight end.

Falcons running game

Once again, I am not expecting Devonta Freeman to have success running the ball between the tackles here. The Saints are allowing the seventh-fewest yards before contact per rush in football (2.17), while 23 percent of Atlanta’s carries have been stuffed at the line of scrimmage this year, the fourth-highest rate in the league. New Orleans has gone 30 consecutive games without allowing a 100-yard rusher so you will once again need Freeman to make contributions in the passing game. That is entirely possible, as the Saints are second in the NFL in pressure rate (29.1%), which could force Ryan to dump it off to Freeman early and often, especially if/when the Falcons fall behind. Freeman is an okay RB2 in PPR leagues.

Saints passing game

Drew Brees returned in Week 8 and didn’t miss a beat, throwing for 373 yards and three touchdowns against the Cardinals. The thumb is fine and now Brees gets another home start, this time against the lowly Atlanta defense. Through nine weeks of play, the Falcons are surrendering 3.04 points per drive, the most in the NFL. They struggle to get off the field, allowing the second-most plays per drive (6.63) and when teams get in close, good things tend to happen. The Falcons are allowing 5.47 points per red zone trip, the third-most in football, while opposing offenses are scoring touchdowns on 68.7 percent of their red zone attempts, the second-highest rate in the league. I expect Brees and this New Orleans offense to do whatever they want this week, especially now that they are at full strength. If you held onto Brees, make sure he is right back into your starting lineup as a top-five play.

The top receiver in the NFL in 2019, Michael Thomas continues to have the highest floor in fantasy. He and Smokey Brown are the only receivers with at least 50 receiving yards in every game this season, while Thomas has caught at least five balls in every game, too. His 32.5 percent target share leads all receivers, while averaging over 11 targets per game and in Brees first game back, Thomas saw 11 targets. Per usual, Thomas is catching everything, leading the league with an 82 percent catch rate. Look for him to continue to smash, especially against Isaiah Oliver, who is allowing 0.53 fantasy points per cover route, the fourth-most among all corners on the slate. He is also being targeted on 23 percent of cover routes while allowing 2.12 fantasy points per target. Thomas is the top receiver on the board.

At home with Brees back, you could certainly consider Ted Ginn Jr. as a deep league flier or GPP play. We know there is upside with him, especially at home, while the Falcons are allowing 12.0 yards per completion, the seventh-highest mark in football. Of course, you never feel safe about his target projection.

Saints running game

With Alvin Kamara sidelined over the last two weeks, the Saints turned to Latavius Murray as their workhorse. The veteran back did not disappoint, totaling 307 yards and four touchdowns on 62 touches during that span. Of course, with a few weeks to heal up, Kamara is expected back, especially coming off the bye, which means you definitely can’t play Murray at $7,300 on DK. It is possible that the Saints give Murray some more work going forward but it won’t be enough to bump Kamara out of the RB1 conversation. The Falcons have been much better against running backs this season, especially on the ground. And while their numbers against pass-catching backs look good, they have been beat up by the good pass-catching backs, such as David Johnson and Todd Gurley. I’m expecting Kamara to return to his 17 touches or so and get the first crack at the goal line work.

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2 thoughts on “The NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Column with Adam Pfeifer: Week 10 Game Breakdowns (FREE)”

  1. Adam, I’m a big fan of your work. Your daily baseball show with Adam and weekly football show on Rotocurve is must listen. Keep up the good work.

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