The NFL Fantasy Football Matchups Column with Adam Pfeifer: Week 10 Game Breakdowns (FREE)

Kansas City Chiefs @ Tennessee Titans

Total: 48.5

Line: KC -5.5

Chiefs passing game

After a two-week hiatus, Patrick Mahomes is set to return this weekend in Tennessee. That means you are immediately plugging him back into your lineup, no questions asked. He is practicing in full so he should be completely behind his knee injury. The Titans are definitely an above average defense, surrendering the fourth-fewest points per drive (1.55) and 10th-fewest yards per play (5.3). Still, Mahomes has as much upside as anyone in the world and is always in play.

Tyreek Hill is very good at football. He torched the Vikings to the tune of six catches for 140 yards and a touchdown last week and now gets the more aggressive Mahomes back under center. Unsurprisingly, Hill is ninth in the league in yards per reception (17.5), sixth in yards per target (11.4) and third in yards per pass route (3.27), so the slate-breaking upside is always there. Tennessee’s secondary is already vulnerable and now they are banged up, as starter Malcolm Butler is now on injured reserve. Hill will see plenty of coverage from LeShaun Sims, who has allowed 2.70 fantasy points per target in limited action this season. It would make sense for the Titans to stick Adoree’ Jackson and his 4.42 speed on the speedster but either way, Hill has the edge.

Sammy Watkins has seen eight and 10 targets over the last two weeks with Matt Moore under center, resulting in fine, but not exciting fantasy numbers. I’m still not crazy about Watkins, even with Mahomes back, though he is a fine WR3 because, well, he plays for the Chiefs. But because he’s been in the slot a good bit this year, he will line up against nickel corner Logan Ryan, who is easily the best corner on this team.

Finally, Travis Kelce didn’t quite have the game I was hoping for last week but was targeted another nine times, catching seven of them for 62 yards. Kelce has at least eight targets in all but one game this season and leads all tight ends in targets (74), deep targets (10) and is fifth in target share (23%). Meanwhile, no tight end has more completed air yards on the year, while Kelce is also seventh in both yards per target and yards per pass route. If personally don’t see myself spending all the way up at tight end very often this week but if I do, Kelce will be on my short list.

Chiefs running game

Back and forth we go.

After it appeared that LeSean McCoy had a stranglehold on the Kansas City backfield, he coughed up the football twice in four games. The Chiefs turned to Damien Williams last week, who played 71 percent of the snaps, the highest by a Kansas City running back this season. He did most of his damage on a 91-yard touchdown where he ran through a hole anyone could get through but we now have to project Williams as the lead back going forward. However, it still doesn’t make me fully confident that he will finish the game as “the guy.” In this offense, Williams has touchdown upside and in the beginning of the year before he got hurt, he was running a healthy amount of routes. Williams has re-entered flex consideration.

Titans passing game

Don’t look now but Ryan Tannehill has quietly been very strong from a fantasy perspective. Since taking over the starting job, Tannehill has scored 28, 19.4 and 23.1 fantasy points. During that stretch, he is ninth among all passers in fantasy points per dropback. Facing Mahomes and this offense, the Titans will probably look to take the air out of the ball and keep them off the field, but if they eventually fall behind, Tannehill will have to throw to keep up. He has been sneaky good, too, completing 56.2 percent of his passes when under pressure, the third-best rate in football, while also completing 66.7 percent of his red zone passes, the ninth-best mark. At $5,100 on DraftKings, Tannehill is almost free and is absolutely on my radar once again against a below average Kansas City defense that has allowed 25 fantasy points to three of the last quarterbacks they have faced.

Deciding who to pair Tannehill with isn’t easy. Of course, you don’t necessarily have to pair him with anyone. But I will always prefer A.J. Brown because he’s more explosive and always gets the better matchup between he and Corey Davis. Brown continues to play over 60 percent of the snaps and is already an elite receiver in terms of yards after the catch, averaging 6.46 per reception, 15th-best in football. I have been playing Brown in tournaments in each of the last three weeks and since his price hasn’t really moved, I’ll likely be doing it again here.

Jonnu Smith was a letdown last week with Delanie Walker out again. Smith caught three balls for 18 yards but he did play 73 percent of the snaps and ran 10 more routes than he did in Week 8. Walker hasn’t practiced in two weeks now, making him very questionable yet again. The Chiefs are allowing the fourth-most receptions per game to opposing tight ends on the season (6.4), as well as the third-most targets (9.6). Smith would be a borderline top-10 tight end if Walker is out again.

Titans running game

The first half of last week’s game was disastrous for Derrick Henry. Tennessee fell behind and Henry had barely touched the ball in the first half. However, the Titans relied on him heavily after the break, as he rushed seven times for 48 yards and a touchdown on the opening drive of the second half. He later added a receiving touchdown, giving him a great fantasy day. This is a great matchup for Henry to run down the throat of this weak Kansas City run defense, and we know Tennessee is going to play defense by giving Henry 20 carries. The Chiefs are allowing 1.1 rushing touchdowns per game this year, as well as the fourth-most rushing yards per game (139.6). Ranking sixth in opportunity share (79%) and fifth in carries (164), Henry should get all the work he can handle in a strong matchup.