NFL Matchups: Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts Fantasy Football Preview

This a snippet of Adam Pfeifer’s NFL matchups column, previewing the Broncos vs. the Colts for Fantasy Football Lineups. Fantasy rosters needed protective spray because key players continue to miss extended time due to injury. We are expecting a handful of quarterbacks returning to health, which of course will impact receivers and backs around the league. As a result, we have plenty to parse through and discuss this week. With that in mind, let’s dig into some NFL DFS matchups and NFL game breakdowns for your Week 8 Fantasy Football Lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft.

To read the FULL column, click HERE.


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Denver Broncos @ Indianapolis Colts

Total: 43.5

Line: IND -5.5

Broncos passing game

I mean… big yikes. The Denver passing attack was quite pathetic last Thursday night. Joe Flacco was sacked a whopping eight times and was under pressure on about 43 percent of his dropbacks. He never stood a chance against the Chiefs in this game and now heads to Indianapolis to face a solid Colts defense that is getting healthier. Flacco is also down a receiver after a certain trade, which isn’t good for fantasy considering he already lacks a ceiling, ranking 31st among quarterbacks in fantasy points per dropback (0.28). With the Colts being worse against the run than the pass, Flacco is completely off my radar this week.

Already emerging as the WR1, Courtland Sutton is now the unquestioned top receiver in Denver with Emmanuel Sanders in San Francisco. The second-year wideout is sporting a solid 24.8 percent target share, while his 55 targets are 10th in the league. He is also seventh in receiving yards (564), while his 80.6 yards per game are 11th-most. And since Week 4, Sutton is 12th among all receivers in fantasy points. The big-bodied receiver has seen 39 percent of Denver’s air yards, the seventh-highest rate in football, and has a very nice combination of floor and ceiling going forward. No wideout has more red zone catches than Sutton (eight) and despite a middling matchup, Sutton is now a low-end WR2 and someone that is too cheap at $5,300 on DK, especially given his consistent usage.

I was interested in DaeSean Hamilton as a sleeper heading into the season, though a lot of that had to do with me thinking Sanders might start the season on the PUP list. As a result, Hamilton has played just over 63 percent of the snaps, while ranking 88th in the league with a 12.6 percent target share. Of course, with Sanders now gone, his role is expected to climb and don’t forget how productive he was last year when Sanders was out of the lineup.

During the final four games of 2018, Hamilton recorded at least five catches for 40 yards in every game, while scoring two touchdowns. Hamilton averaged a healthy 9.5 targets per game during that span, while serving as the WR22. He lined up in the slot over 73 percent of the time and because the pricing has been out, Hamilton is just $3,300 on DK, making him an elite value play in any format. His hands still need working, dropping a pass every 5.5 targets, but there is no one else there to take looks away from him, as Tim Patrick doesn’t return until Week 11.

Broncos running game

After being dominated in the short-yardage work all year, of course it was Royce Freeman that scored the goal line touchdown last Thursday night. He touched the ball 14 total times, including that touchdown. Phillip Lindsay, meanwhile, let us down in a smash spot against the Chiefs, but remains the 1A in this offense. I wish these two were just one back, as the usage would be through the roof, but these guys are pretty much at a 50/50 split at the moment, eating away at each other’s value.

Lindsay has still seen seven carries from inside the five-yard line, the fourth-most in football and six more than Freeman, so I still believe he has the most touchdown equity of anyone in this backfield. 55 percent of all runs against the Colts from the five-yard line have been converted into touchdowns, the highest rate on the slate, so Lindsay is someone I will still look to as a low-end RB2 or flex option.

Freeman, meanwhile, appears to remain the preferred PPR option, as he has more targets (29), catches (25) and routes run (134) than Lindsay this season. We could see another four or five catches from him in this game, especially with the Colts playing that soft zone defense that allows plenty of short receptions in the middle of the field.

Colts passing game

I was all over Jacoby Brissett last week, so it was good to get at least one right. Brissett smashed the Texans defense to the tune of 326 yards and four touchdowns. Again, Brissett has now scored multiple touchdowns in all but one game this season, and is now ninth in both fantasy points per game (19.1) and fantasy points per dropback (0.48). Brissett is also averaging a healthy 4.8 carries and 1.0 red zone carries per game on the season, boosting his floor just a bit. His matchup is much tougher this week, as the Broncos are coughing up the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing passers (11.2), as well as just 9.4 yards per completion, the sixth-lowest mark in the league. But Brissett has given us that floor every week and his DK price tag is still fair, if anything.

T.Y. Hilton continued his dominance against the Texans last week, catching six balls for 74 yards and a touchdown. The Colts have used their star receiver a ton from in close, as his six targets from inside the 10-yard line are third-most in the league, despite the fact that he already had his bye and missed a game due to injury. He has seen just over 35 percent of the Colts targets from that part of the field, which explains his five touchdowns. Hilton should see shadow coverage from Chris Harris Jr. in this game, who has ditched the slot and has shadowed on two different occasions this season. In shadow coverage, Harris has allowed four catches for 49 yards on six targets, so this isn’t exactly the easiest of matchups.

Zach Pascal exploded for over 100 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week but it is tough for me to fully buy into him when he played 49 snaps, his lowest since Week 3. He also only lined up as a receiver 31 times and played more special teams than he had in the weeks prior. Chester Rogers played 43 snaps, while Deon Cain played 30. With rookie receiver Parris Campbell potentially returning this week, the battle for the WR2 in Indianapolis will be a crowded one.

After losing some snaps in Week 5, Eric Ebron saw his playing time jump back up last week while he lined up out wide 14 times, the highest mark of the season so far. He took advantage of the uptick in snaps, catching four passes for 70 yards and the best touchdown of the season. Jack Doyle is still dominating the playing time at tight end, though he is fifth among tight ends in with 151 run-blocking snaps, compared to 24th at the position with 129 routes run, limiting his upside. Ebron is the preferred play since he’s being targeted on 13.8 percent of his snaps, eighth-best among tight ends, though the floor isn’t very high for him this year with Doyle healthy.

Colts running game

Volume was once again on Marlon Mack’s side last week, as he touched the ball 21 times. The numbers were lacking but he faced a Houston defense that is so much better against the run than they are the pass. Mack is averaging right around 21 touches per game for the season, as the Colts continue to call run 46.3 percent of the time, the fifth-highest rate in football. From a carries standpoint, Mack remains one of the safest bets in all of fantasy.

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