This a snippet of Adam Pfeifer’s NFL matchups column, previewing the Browns vs. the Broncos for Fantasy Football Lineups. Fantasy rosters needed protective spray because key players continue to miss extended time due to injury. We are expecting a handful of quarterbacks returning to health, which of course will impact receivers and backs around the league. As a result, we have plenty to parse through and discuss this week. With that in mind, let’s dig into some NFL DFS matchups and NFL game breakdowns for your Week 9 Fantasy Football Lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft.
To read the FULL column, click HERE.
Be sure to check out today’s NFL Strategy Show with Dave Loughran and Sal Vetri!
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos
Total: 39
Line: CLE -3.5
Browns passing game
I’m sorry. I’m just still not interested in Baker Mayfield right now. While he looked better at times last week against the Patriots, there is still too much bad here. Baker still looks lost when the first read isn’t there and the Browns aren’t consistently doing anything to make it easier on him. A road meeting with the Broncos isn’t very enticing, as Denver is allowing 1.57 points per drive this year, the fifth-fewest in the league. They are also allowing the seventh-fewest yards per completion (9.7) and fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.2). The Broncos are also allowing the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns per game (0.8), making Mayfield an avoid once again for me this week.
With Chris Harris still in Denver, I’d imagine they use him to shadow Odell Beckham. Beckham is talented enough to win against any cornerback in the league, and his price is as low as it has ever been in DFS. However, Harris has been really good in shadow coverage this season, allowing just six catches for 103 yards and zero touchdowns. Odell hasn’t scored since Week 2, though he is still fifth in the league with a healthy 27.4 percent target share. If the Browns ever figure things out on offense, Beckham is going to explode because the talent is clearly still there. But until then, he is more of a top-20 wide receiver than top-10.
I prefer Jarvis Landry in this spot and at his $4,500 DK price tag, he is actually one of my favorite wide receiver plays of the slate. Landry has seen over 24 percent of the targets this year, while his 2.39 yards per pass route are up from last year. His 16.8 yards per reception are 12th-most in the league and easily a career-high. We have seen secondary receivers get to the Broncos because Harris is handling the opposition’s top wideout.
Browns running game
Nick Chubb continues to look really good with the football in his hands and if it weren’t for his two fumbles, he would have had a huge game against the Patriots last week. Despite the offensive woes for Cleveland, Chubb still is averaging 5.6 yards per touch (12th), while his 11 rushes of 15 yards or more are the second-most in the NFL. The Browns continue to feed him the rock, as he is sporting the league’s fifth-highest opportunity rate (83.9 percent), making him a must-play every week. I also like his price on DK, especially when there are question marks surrounding other running backs in his price range. 43 percent of the touchdowns scored against the Broncos this season have come on the ground, the 10th-highest rate in football.
Broncos passing game
With Joe Flacco sidelined with a neck injury, it’ll be Brandon Allen under center for the Broncos for the time being. This is his first time Allen will be the starting quarterback for an NFL franchise and we really don’t know much about him. I know this slate is tough but it isn’t tough enough to warrant considering Allen, even at just $4,100.
The real question is how does this impact the Denver pass-catchers? Well, with Emmanuel Sanders gone and DaeSean Hamilton coming off a goose egg, you are probably only really considering Courtland Sutton, who has come on during his sophomore campaign. Sutton has handled 40 percent of Denver’s air yards this season, the sixth-highest rate among all wide receivers, while ranking inside the top-13 in both yards per target (10.4) and yards per pass route (2.70). There is still plenty of upside here and Sutton should remain the focal point of the passing game but with question marks surrounding the quarterback, he is downgraded to a WR3 and a risky DFS investment.
There could be potential for a bounce back for Hamilton. I mean, all he’ll have to do is catch one pass and it’ll be considered improvement, after all. But he played 62 percent of the snaps, with 29 of 45 snaps coming from the slot. The Browns got both Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams back, which could limit production to the outside. We just saw Julian Edelman score two touchdowns from the slot last week, making it five touchdowns allowed to the slot for Cleveland this year. And if you are feeling really frisky, you can consider punting Fred Brown at just $3,200, who played one more snap than Hamilton last week and has likely worked with Allen during practices in the beginning of the season.
Broncos running gameÂ
Royce Freeman has scored a touchdown in consecutive weeks and is suddenly eating into Phillip Lindsay’s short yardage, which Lindsay could hold his hat on whenever Freeman would steal pass-catching work. However, over the last two weeks, Freeman has two carries from inside the five-yard line, while Lindsay has just one. He has also out-carried him in the red zone 8-3 during that same span. The Browns can be had on the ground, coughing up the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, as well as the 10th-most rushing yards per game to the position.
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