This a snippet of Adam Pfeifer’s NFL matchups column, previewing the Tampa Bay Buccaneers & LA Rams for Fantasy Football Lineups. Fantasy rosters needed protective spray because players were bit hard by the injury bug in Week 3. Multiple backup quarterbacks made starts, and running backs and wide receivers all suffered injuries this past weekend, with a handful of key offensive linemen also going down. As a result, we missed on plenty in this article, but we hit on plenty, as well. Back on the horse. With that in mind, let’s dig into some NFL matchups and NFL game breakdowns for your Week 4 Fantasy Football Lineups. Should you roster Mike Evans or Todd Gurley?
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Rams
Total: 49
Line: LAR -9.5
Buccaneers passing game
If he didn’t get it done last week, it would be over for him, but Jameis Winston finally had himself a big fantasy day against the Giants. He passed for 380 yards and three touchdowns, but that was more of a one-week thing. I’m expecting him to struggle a bit this weekend in Los Angeles against a Rams defense that has been playing extremely well to this point. The Rams are only allowing 9.2 yards per completion this year (sixth-lowest) and the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks at under 10 per game.
One of the main reasons I liked Winston last week was that the Giants have no pass rush to speak of, which benefits someone like Winston, who has three picks and a 43.9 QB rating when under pressure this season. The Rams, meanwhile, have a very capable pass rush led by Aaron Donald. I have zero interest in Winston this week.
Hopefully you bought low on Mike Evans and enjoyed his 190-yard, three-touchdown performance. Tampa Bay knew they had a matchup they liked with Evans and Janoris Jenkins and they attacked it all day long. While you certainly aren’t sitting Evans, things definitely get a lot more difficult this week, as the Rams have yet to allow a touchdown to an opposing wide receiver, despite facing the Rams, Panthers and Browns. He struggled a bit last year but Marcus Peters has been fantastic so far this season, allowing just four catches for 45 yards in coverage. Evans won’t be a complete dud but he’s a back-end receiver this week and someone I won’t have much exposure to in DFS contests.
With Evans dominating the box score last week, not much was left for Chris Godwin. He caught just three passes for 40 yards and is now dealing with a minor hip issue, as he missed practice on Wednesday. Assuming he’s good to go, Godwin will remain a top-20 wide receiver, despite the tough matchup. He’s still lining up in the slot over 60 percent of the time, which will keep him away from Peters and Aqib Talib. If I’m going to play either Tampa Bay wideout in DFS, it’ll easily be Godwin, who is also now $1,100 cheaper than Evans.
It wasn’t the explosion game we have been waiting for, but O.J. Howard was at least on the board last week, catching three passes for a season-high 66 yards. He also ran a season-high 28 routes, which is what you want to see after watching him block so often in the first two weeks of the season. You feel better about him going forward, but he still remains slightly risky in this tough road matchup.
Buccaneers running game
It appears the Bucs will continue to go with a hot hand approach, making both Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber extremely difficult to trust in fantasy. Jones has looked far more explosive and is now averaging over five yards per carry and 6.8 yards per touch, fourth-best among running backs. Last game, Jones and Barber both touched the ball 15 times and because neither has taken over as the sole pass-catching back, both are desperation flex plays this week.
Rams passing game
We have yet to see this Rams offense explode this season. I think it happens this week. Jared Goff is back at home where he is a much better fantasy performer. He scored 21 fantasy points in his lone home game this season and averaged 100 yards more per game when in Los Angeles last season. Tampa Bay’s defense has been much improved this season but most of it has been against the run.
Yes, they did well in Weeks 1 and 2 against the pass, but Jimmy Garoppolo lost two drives in that game due to San Francisco pick-sixes, while also having two touchdown passes called back due to penalty. The Bucs have been a pass funnel this season and the Rams have had no issues abandoning the run so far. Tampa Bay is still allowing a healthy 12 yards per completion this year and I think the Los Angeles passing game has their biggest showing of the season this week. I have a ton of interest in Goff in season-long and daily formats.
Cooper Kupp is coming off an awesome Sunday night game, catching 11 of 12 targets for 102 yards and two touchdowns. He’s now been over 100 yards in two straight games and is fifth in the NFL in target share at 29.8 percent. There is no denying who Goff’s go-to target is, as Kupp’s 31 targets is also good for sixth in the league.
Kupp had six touchdowns in just eight games last season so it isn’t surprising to see him lead the team in touchdowns. Slot corner M.J. Stewart has allowed the ninth-most yards after the catch this season, while Kupp ranks inside the top-10 in yards after the catch per target (6.26) among wideouts with at least 10 targets this season. Kupp should be ranked as the top Rams receiver this week and should be in line for another very strong game.
Brandin Cooks didn’t exactly disappoint last week either, catching eight passes for 112 yards. He also saw 12 targets in this game and has had consecutive good games after a quiet Week 1. Cooks remains the deep target in this passing game but is far less boom-or-bust than people think he is. He is averaging nearly nine air yards per target and this Buccaneers secondary is nothing to fear. Cooks is a top-20 fantasy wideout this season and my second favorite option to pair Goff with in tournaments.
Robert Woods, meanwhile, hasn’t quite joined the party yet, though he had a touchdown called back last week and a few catches called back due to penalty in Week 2. Woods still has a healthy 23 targets through three weeks and still presents a strong floor, especially with his two rushes a game. He doesn’t have the ceiling of Kupp and his touchdowns or Cooks and his yards, but Woods should bounce back this weekend. All three Los Angeles wideouts are great options.
Rams running game
It may be hard to sit Todd Gurley in seasonal leagues unless you are loaded at running back. However, I am completely fading him at $7,000 on DK. He hasn’t looked very explosive outside of two runs in the fourth quarter of Week 1 and his involvement in the pass game is tilting. Gurley has just four catches for eight yards through three weeks of play and it still doesn’t seem like the Rams are going to give him 20 carries anytime soon.
Sure, he could still fall into the end zone twice but the Buccaneers have been very tough against the run this season. They held McCaffrey and Barkley to 90 total yards and zero touchdowns on 30 touches and are allowing just 3.0 yards per carry, the third-best rate in the league. I honestly never thought I’d say it but I really don’t feel great about using Gurley against the Buccaneers.
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