This a snippet of Adam Pfeifer’s NFL matchups column, previewing the Buccaneers vs. the Seahawks for Fantasy Football Lineups. Fantasy rosters needed protective spray because key players continue to miss extended time due to injury. We are expecting a handful of quarterbacks returning to health, which of course will impact receivers and backs around the league. As a result, we have plenty to parse through and discuss this week. With that in mind, let’s dig into some NFL DFS matchups and NFL game breakdowns for your Week 9 Fantasy Football Lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft.
To read the FULL column, click HERE.
Be sure to check out today’s NFL Strategy Show with Dave Loughran and Sal Vetri!
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks
Total: 52
Line: SEA -6
Buccaneers passing game
In typical Jameis Winston fashion, he turned the ball over four times, yet still scored over 26 fantasy points. A similar outing would never be shocking but Seattle’s defense isn’t as good as Tennessee’s. They generate pressure at the second-lowest rate in the league (15.5 percent), while coughing up the third-most passing yards (2,186). And while it was on 52 pass attempts, the Seahawks just let Matt Schaub throw for 460 yards against them last week. The Seahawks are also allowing a healthy 11.2 yards per completion (ninth-most), while Winston has remained as aggressive as ever, ranking second in the league with 46 deep ball attempts. The turnovers are sure to be there but Winston is a fine fantasy starter, just as long as he has those weapons on the outside.
Speaking of his receivers, how about Mike Evans? Every single time people think he’s on the decline, he goes off for a monster performance. That was the case last week, as he caught 11 of 12 targets for 198 yards and a pair of touchdowns, as he roasted the Titans secondary corners. This kind of upside will be there every week with Evans, as he is the main downfield option in this passing game. He is second in the league with 17 deep targets, averaging 2.7 pet game, while 27 percent of his looks have come 20 yards or more down the field this season. His 0.57 fantasy points per pass route is 12th-best in the league, putting him in GPP consideration every single week, and of course, you aren’t benching him in seasonal leagues.
While Evans is the more consistent deep threat in this offense, Chris Godwin is still making plays down the field, ranking sixth in the league in yards per target (11.4) and ninth in yards per pass route (2.87). He is top-eight in both fantasy points per pass route (0.62) and fantasy points per target (2.48) and over the last three weeks, Tampa Bay has reverted to that pass-happy approach, calling pass 67.9 percent of the time. Godwin and Evans have combined for nearly 52 percent of the Bucs targets this season, making them both top-10 plays each and every week.
Cameron Brate got the start for the injured O.J. Howard last week and while the final numbers weren’t fantastic (3-32), he ran 37 routes, the fourth-most among all tight ends for the week. Seattle has struggled to defend tight ends this season, coughing up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position (13.2). They are also allowing the third-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends (71.0), while allowing a touchdown in three of the last four games to tight ends, and it would have been four if Mark Andrews could catch the football. If Howard is out again, Brate is a top-10 fantasy option.
Buccaneers running game
Since Week 4, Dare Ogunbowale has played 38 percent of the snaps, with Ronald Jones at 31 percent and Peyton Barber at 29 percent. Yikes. I really don’t want to use any of these backs this week, or any week, as long as they are all active.
Seahawks passing game
The only concern with Russell Wilson is the same concern every week—how many times will he throw the football? Seattle was content with him throwing the ball just 20 times last week, though he tossed a pair of touchdowns. You need the Bucs to put up points to unlock Wilson’s true ceiling, but the most efficient passer in football should be able to pick apart this secondary whenever he does drop back to pass. No quarterback in football is averaging more fantasy points per dropback than Wilson (0.59), while Tampa Bay is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (21.1).
The Bucs are also coughing up the third-most total air yards on completions (1,190), while Wilson is third in the league with 44 deep ball attempts, averaging 5.5 per game. He is also averaging 9.6 air yards per attempt, one of the highest numbers in the league. It is entirely possible that Tampa Bay slows down the run, as they’ve done that all year. As a result, 80.6 percent of all yardage surrendered by this defense has come through the air, easily the highest rate in the NFL. Consider Wilson a top-two quarterback play this week and the clear top option on the main slate.
We keep expecting Tyler Lockett’s efficiency to drop but it just isn’t happening. He is eighth in the league with 2.42 fantasy points per target, while Wilson is sporting a 138.8 rating when targeting Lockett, the third-best mark in football. Lockett has recorded 50 yards or a touchdown in every single game this season and faces a bad Tampa Bay secondary that is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts. His $7,500 price tag on DK is scary because he is averaging just 6.8 targets per game but his insane efficiency and an elite matchup could counter that here.
It was bound to happen and D.K. Metcalf found the end zone twice last week. The rookie still leads the league with 12 end zone targets, seeing 27.9 percent of Seattle’s end zone targets, the highest rate in the league. Metcalf is seventh in the league in yards per reception (17.5) and this matchup won’t make you suddenly feel bad about him.
Seahawks running game
Chris Carson has had at least 20 carries in five consecutive games and during that span, he is second in the league with 129 carries, averaging 22 per game. The matchup this week is tough, as the Bucs are allowing just 3.0 yards per attempt, the lowest rate in the league. They are also stuffing 32 percent of all carries at the line of scrimmage, the highest rate in the NFL. Still, Carson’s volume and role in this offense are too good to pass on, and it was also good to see him remain the true workhorse in a game where Rashaad Penny actually got some work, carrying the ball eight times for 55 yards.
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