Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers
Total: 45
Line: SF -6.5
Rams passing game
The Rams got pushed around last Sunday in Dallas and now head to San Francisco for an absolute must-win game. Jared Goff had nearly 19 fantasy points last week, though a large chunk of it came in garbage time. Now he faces a tough 49ers defense that is going to get Richard Sherman and possibly K’Waun Williams back in their secondary. This team can still get after the quarterback as well as just about anyone, as San Francisco is generating pressure at the fourth-highest rate in the league (28.5 percent).
That doesn’t bode well for Goff, who has struggled against defenses that can put him under duress. In fact, when under pressure this season, he is completing just 32.2 percent of his passes, which ranks just 23rd in football. The 49ers are also coughing up the fifth-fewest fantasy points per pass attempt this year (0.38), making Goff someone to avoid this week, especially against a defense that limited him to 78 passing yards at home when these teams first met.
While he had a bad fantasy game last week, it was great to see the volume remain on Robert Woods’ side. Woods was targeted nine more times last week, giving him at least nine in each of his last five games. During that span, he is fourth in the league with 57 targets, while his 11.4 per game average is second-best among all receivers. That volume needs to be in your NFL DFS lineups each and every week, regardless of matchup. Sherman is expected to play and will cover Woods in this game but he remains a solid WR2 play.
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It seems as if Week 14 was a case-specific game for the Rams. Cooper Kupp played 19-of-68 snaps in that contest, as the Rams went with a run-heavy personnel. Kupp returned to a 92 percent snap share last week, though a lot of that might have had to do with the Rams getting down so big, so early. Kupp has now scored in each of the last three games, though his yardage and target totals have definitely been underwhelming. He hasn’t seen double-digit targets since Week 12 and if Williams is active for the 49ers in the slot, the matchup is even worse. Kupp is a high-end WR3 for championship week.
After missing the last three games with a knee injury, Gerald Everett is off the injury report ahead of Saturday’s game. It could be a blow to Tyler Higbee, who has dominated in his absence, going for 100 yards in all three games. During that three-game stretch, Higbee is the TE1 in fantasy, while leading the position in targets (32), receptions (26) and yards (334). However, the combination of Everett’s return and a matchup with the 49ers (second-fewest fantasy points per game to tight ends) makes Higbee more of a low-end TE1 than a surefire top-five NFL DFS option.
Rams running game
Todd Gurley finally appears to be an every-down back for the Rams, averaging 19.6 touches per game since Week 11. That number would be much higher if the Rams didn’t get blown out by the Ravens and Cowboys during that stretch. However, he’s still played a healthy 82 percent of the snaps during that span and with this being a must-win game for the Rams, I seriously doubt they limit him here. The matchup isn’t fantastic, especially with the 49ers surrendering the third-fewest points per drive in the NFL (1.52) but Gurley is locked into 18-23 touches right now, keeping him in the high-end RB2 range.
49ers passing game
I completely whiffed on Jimmy Garoppolo and this San Francisco passing attack last week. Against a bad Falcons defense, I thought they would do whatever they wanted but props to Atlanta for playing some strong defense. The main reason I liked Garoppolo in that spot is because the Falcons are bottom-three in yards allowed after the catch, while Garoppolo leads all quarterbacks in yards after the catch per completion (6.4).
The Rams, meanwhile, are about middle of the pack in yards allowed after the catch, while allowing the 12th-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal-callers. They are also coughing up the ninth-fewest fantasy points per pass attempt (0.41) and over the last three weeks, are allowing the fewest passing touchdowns per game (0.7). I’m not crazy about Garoppolo this Saturday night.
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Emmanuel Sanders has been pretty inconsistent since joining the 49ers, posting fantasy point totals of 27.2, 4.4, 6.3, 2.5, 8.1, 37.1 and 2.9. He’s been under 45 receiving yards in all but two games since joining the team and now has a date with Jalen Ramsey, who definitely hasn’t been a top-five corner this year but it is still a tough matchup. Against a very good corner and having an up-and-down target share, Sanders is someone I am looking to bench this weekend, if I can.
Meanwhile, George Kittle just continues to dominate. He went off for 13 catches for 134 yards on a whopping 17 targets against the Falcons last week and now faces a Rams defense that he’s either scored or reached 100 yards against in each of the last three games. Kittle’s upside is obviously tremendous, as he is ninth among tight ends in yards per reception (12.2), second in yards per target (9.7) and first in yards per pass route (4.13). That last number leads all pass-catchers, not just tight ends.
49ers running game
Raheem Mostert still appears to be the lead back in San Francisco. After breaking out against the Saints in Week 14, Mostert led the way with 14 carries for 54 yards and a touchdown. He played 53 percent of the snaps, while Tevin Coleman was at 30 percent and Matt Breida at 19 percent. He also got the short-yardage work, as Coleman didn’t see a carry from inside the five-yard line or even in the red zone. As the lead back in an offense calling run at the league’s third-highest rate (49.6 percent), Mostert should continue to be viewed as a viable FLEX play the rest of the way, while Coleman and Breida don’t belong near fantasy rosters.
