Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Total: 41
Line: GB -4.5
Bears passing game
Don’t look now but Mitchell Trubisky is starting to play some quarterback. Trubisky has scored multiple touchdowns in each of his last three games, while throwing for three scores in back-to-back contests. We’ve also seen him run more as of late, which is huge for his value. He rushed 10 times for 63 yards and a touchdown against Dallas on Thursday night and seven times for 18 yards and a score against the Giants in Week 12. Over the last six weeks, Trubisky is averaging a solid 0.47 fantasy points per pass attempt, the ninth-most in the league during that span.
The Packers opened the season as a very good pass defense but have fallen off since. They are allowing the fifth-most yards per completion in football (11.9), as well as the sixth-most yards per pass attempt (7.5). They just haven’t allowed many touchdowns to quarterbacks, surrendering 1.2 passing scores per game, tied for the fifth-fewest in the league. Trubisky has re-entered the streaming radar, though his $6,000 price tag on DraftKings is cause for some trepidation.
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Allen Robinson is red hot right now. The Penn State product has found the end zone in three consecutive games, scoring four touchdowns during that span. He’s remained the focal point of this entire offense, sporting a healthy 25.7 percent target share, the ninth-highest mark among all receivers. Robinson has truly played like one of the best receivers in the NFL this year, regardless of the poor quarterback play. His 61.3 percent contested catch rate is fourth among all wideouts, while ranking eighth in the league with 76 receptions.
Robinson went over 100 yards against this secondary all the way back in Week 1, though he probably should have gone for 200 yards, as he was creating separation at will. He’ll see coverage from all corners, as Robinson lines up on the left over 30 percent of the time, on the right 25 percent of the time and in the slot over 40 percent of the time. Robinson leads the league with six end zone targets since Week 11 and should stay in your lineups this weekend.
It wasn’t another huge target game from Anthony Miller last week, but he was once again productive with Taylor Gabriel (concussion) sidelined. Miller caught three balls for 42 yards and a touchdown last Thursday night and since Week 11, he is the WR16 in NFL DFS. During that same span, Miller is 10th in the NFL in targets (34), sixth in receptions (24) and 12th in receiving yards (313). If Gabriel can’t return this week, Miller should remain a WR3 in season-long formats.
Bears running game
It still hasn’t been the greatest rookie campaign for David Montgomery but at least he’s been involved lately. Since Week 8, he is fifth in the NFL in touches with 133, averaging 19 touches per game. After evading a bunch of tackles in college, it is weird to see Montgomery rank 44th among 46 qualified running backs in yards after contact per attempt (1.6) this season but that’s where we’re at.
He’ll still have the opportunity to produce in a solid matchup this week, facing a Green Bay defense that is coughing up 1.1 rushing touchdowns per game on the year, the fifth-most in the NFL. 46.6 percent of the touchdowns scored against the Packers this season have come on the ground, the third-highest rate in the league. Montgomery, meanwhile, is fourth in the league with 11 goal line carries and 13 carries from inside the five-yard line this season. He’s a low-end RB2 for this week’s NFC North showdown.
Tarik Cohen is averaging a healthy 6.3 targets per game over the last four weeks but there just hasn’t been any upside. He’s been under 40 receiving yards in all but one game this season, that game coming against the Packers in Week 1 where he was exclusively used as a slot receiver. His 4.4 yards per touch are the lowest of his career and really isn’t worth starting outside of deep PPR leagues.
Packers passing game
Green Bay’s offense definitely underwhelmed last week at home against the Redskins. Aaron Rodgers passed for just 195 yards and one touchdown in a strong spot, though taking four sacks definitely didn’t help. Rodgers has been mostly good whenever he’s faced weaker opponents but hasn’t been too strong in tougher matchups, which has me worried about him here. The Bears are still a very dangerous pass defense, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per pass attempt on the year (0.36).
They are pressuring the quarterback 26.1 percent of the time, the eighth-highest rate in the league, while Rodgers has actually struggled when under duress this year, ranking 33rd in pressured completion rate (46.6%). I have zero interest in Rodgers in NFL DFS this week and if you can pick up a decent alternative off the waiver wire, I’d truly consider benching him in this spot.
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Davante Adams disappointed last week, finishing with just four catches for 41 yards on six targets. The Green Bay running game and defense did most of the work in this one and it is tough to offer much as a receiver in NFL DFS when your quarterback throws for fewer than 200 yards. Adams is still averaging 9.8 targets per game since returning from his foot injury back in Week 9, while being targeted on 18.6 percent of his snaps, the third-highest rate among receivers with at least 20 targets during that span.
The Bears are allowing the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts on the year, as well as the fourth-fewest passing scores per game (1.1), making this a tough spot for Adams too. Still, Rodgers is going to continue to look to him, especially in the red zone. You aren’t benching him but perhaps you should temper expectations a bit.
Packers running game
Aaron Jones broke out of a mini-slump in a big way last week, rushing for 134 yards and a touchdown on 16 carries. He also caught six of seven targets for 58 yards and has now seen 13 targets over the last two weeks. I expect another strong workload from Jones against a Bears defense that is far more vulnerable against the run, as 46.1 percent of the touchdowns surrendered by Chicago have come on the ground, the fifth-highest rate in the NFL. Jones is fourth in the league with 11 goal line carries on the season, while his 12 carries from inside the five-yard line are tied for the fifth-most in football. The Bears are also allowing the fourth-most targets per game to opposing backfields (7.8), setting up Jones for another strong game here in Week 15.
With the hot hand belonging to Jones last week, Jamaal Williams touched the ball just seven times, his fewest touches in a game since Week 7. Most weeks, he should see enough work to warrant low-end flex consideration but he definitely still remains second fiddle in this offense.
Miami Dolphins @ New York Giants
Total: 46.5
Line: NYG -3.5
Dolphins passing game
A lot of people went to Ryan Fitzpatrick last week and it didn’t exactly pay off. The Dolphins offense was carried by kicker Jason Sanders and his seven field goals while Fitzpatrick finished with 245 scoreless passing yards and an interception. Interestingly enough, his price jumped up $200 to $6,200 this week on DraftKings, which is going to be really difficult for me to get to, especially if he is without his top receiver.
The matchup definitely isn’t bad, as the Giants are allowing the fifth-highest passing touchdown rate in the NFL to this point of the season (5.5 percent), while also allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal-callers (21.0). They are also coughing up 2.21 points per drive this year, the sixth-most in the league. He is worth a look as a streaming option this week and if he has his top wideout, I actually might play him over Rodgers. But his price tag in NFL DFS contests is going to be difficult for me to get to.
DeVante Parker suffered a concussion last week and now he’ll need to pass the protocol in order to suit up on Sunday. If active, I don’t know how you get away from this guy, as Parker is still the WR11 in fantasy since Week 4. He’s developed a nice rapport with Fitzpatrick and the veteran quarterback has no issues forcing throws to his big-bodied receiver, as 20.9 percent of passes have gone into tight windows, the sixth-highest rate in football. Parker has done a good job of coming down with those passes, as his 51.9 percent contested catch rate is the ninth-best mark in football.
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The Giants, meanwhile, are allowing the sixth-highest completion rate in football at 67.2 percent, as well as 14.3 fantasy points per game to opposing left wide receivers, where Parker lines up 36 percent of the time. If he clears the protocol, Parker is an easy top-15 wide receiver.
Of course, if he sits, the Dolphins are going to be really short-handed at wide receiver. With Albert Wilson also suffering a concussion last week, the Dolphins are currently down to Allen Hurns, Isaiah Ford and recently-signed Mack Hollins as their healthy receivers. Ford led the team in catches (six), targets (nine) and receiving yards (92) last week and would be the starting receiver if Parker can’t play. He would also draw coverage from rookie corner DeAndre Baker, who has allowed 0.45 fantasy points per cover snap, 2.03 fantasy points per target, six touchdowns and 15.6 yards per reception this season.
Tight end Mike Gesicki is healthy, though he was basically non-existent last week, catching one of five targets for six yards. He’s still very involved, leading all tight ends in routes run (223) since Week 9, while ranking fourth at the position in targets during that same span (37). The Dolphins continue to essentially use him as a wide receiver, as no tight end in football has lined up in the slot more than Gesicki (73 percent), while he’s caught nearly 72 percent of his slot targets on the season. So while the Giants have been pretty good against the tight end position this year, remember that Gesicki is being used more like a slot receiver.
Dolphins running game
In their first game without Kalen Ballage falling forward for half a yard, the Dolphins mainly relied on NFL DFS community star, Patrick Laird. He played 82 percent of the snaps last week, while touching the ball 19 times. He totaled a mediocre 86 yards on those touches but Laird has legitimate PPR potential, seeing five targets in each of the last two games. Miami is calling pass 66.3 percent of the time on the year, the second-highest rate in football, which means Laird will have plenty of pass-catching opportunities. Still, I was surprised that the Dolphins didn’t give Myles Gaskin more run, especially in a lost season.
Laird is once again a low-end flex in PPR leagues and a viable cheaper play on a site like DraftKings. We just saw the Giants really struggle against the Eagles running backs in the screen game on Monday night, surrendering 10 catches for 93 yards to their two main backs.
Giants passing game
It was a tale of two halves for Eli Manning in his first game back last week. In the first half, he connected on a pair of long touchdown passes, entering the locker room with over 150 yards and two touchdowns. He and the Giants offense struggled in the second half, however, totaling 30 yards the rest of the way. Daniel Jones is still nursing an ankle injury, though at the moment, we don’t know who will start for New York.
If it is Manning again, you could look to him as a cheap NFL DFS play at home against the Dolphins. Miami is surrendering the most points per drive (2.59) and the highest passing touchdown rate (7.2 percent) in all of football. They are also only pressuring opposing passers 18.2 percent of the time, the lowest rate in football. That is very, very helpful to Manning and his statue-like tendencies.
Golden Tate returned from his one-game absence with a concussion, though he didn’t do much, catching just one of his five targets for 11 yards. Tate went back to his usual slot role, lining up there 86.7 percent of the time against the Eagles on Monday night. As a result, Sterling Shepard was only inside 13 percent of the time, though he was targeted a solid seven times. Over the course of his career, Shepard has been far less efficient when playing on the outside, though it might benefit him for this Week 15 matchup with the Dolphins.
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Miami is surrendering the seventh-most fantasy points per game to left wide receivers, where Shepard will line up for the majority of the game with Tate back. Miami has also allowed eight different 100-yard games to pass catchers this season, as well as the third-most yards per completion (12.2). Shepard is my favorite Giants receiver this week, though both he and Tate are high-end WR3 plays.
The story of last Monday night’s game was Darius Slayton, who continued his strong rookie season, catching five of eight targets for 154 yards and two touchdowns. Even with Tate and Shepard in the mix, it was great to see Slayton so involved, as he continues to serve as the downfield threat in this offense. Slayton is 15th in the league in yards per reception (15.7) and 16th in yards per target (9.6), while handling a team-high 31 percent of the air yards. The Dolphins have really struggled against the speedy perimeter receivers and Slayton certainly fits the bill. He’s the cheapest of the three Giants wideouts and has the most NFL DFS upside.
A foot sprain has kept Evan Engram out of the lineup for the last five games and it sounds like there is some pessimism regarding his availability the rest of the way. With both Engram and Rhett Ellison out since Week 11, Kaden Smith has played 95 percent of the snaps during that span, tied for the highest rate among all tight ends. He’s seen a respectable 19 targets over the last three games and is worth a look as a streaming option if you are really hurting at the tight end position this week.
Giants running game
The disappointing season continues for Saquon Barkley, who failed to find the end zone for the fifth consecutive game. Barkley has also been under 100 scrimmage yards in six of his last eight games, scoring two total touchdowns during that stretch. It has been very underwhelming, though I still believe Barkley is an elite talent. This Giants offensive line has done an awful job of providing him with running lanes, as Barkley is averaging just 2.0 yards before contact per attempt, 26th among all runners this season.
If there is any spot for him to break out of it, it would be this one, as the Dolphins are bottom-five in yards before contact allowed to running backs. They are stuffing just 13 percent of all runs at or behind the line of scrimmage this season, the second-lowest rate in the NFL. Miami is also coughing up the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields and Barkley is still second among all running backs in opportunity share (89.5 percent). I really believe this is the breakout week and at $7,700 on DraftKings, I’ll definitely be using him.
Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs
Total: 46
Line: KC -9.5
Broncos passing game
Rookie quarterback Drew Lock had an outstanding first career road start last week in Houston, throwing for 309 yards and three touchdowns against the Texans. His 11.9 yards per attempt look good but a lot of the production came after the catch, as Lock sported an average depth of target of 6.7. He has definitely shown some promising signs during his first two starts but I don’t think I’m going to suddenly rely on him as an NFL DFS option.
For starters, his price jumped up to $5,700 on DraftKings and while the Broncos are big underdogs here, they are playing in Kansas City, which can be a very dangerous place to play, especially for a rookie quarterback. And over the last six weeks, the Chiefs are allowing the eighth-fewest fantasy points per pass attempt (0.40), while also coughing up the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns per game over the last three weeks.
In a game where the Broncos offense did whatever they wanted, it was definitely underwhelming to see Courtland Sutton finish with just five catches for 34 yards. He was targeted a healthy seven times, the only Broncos player to see more than four targets. We know the talent is there for Sutton, who is 14th in the league in fantasy points per pass route (0.53) and 15th in contested catch rate (44.4 percent). Sutton is really the only deep threat for the Broncos, as he’s seen 41 percent of the team’s air yards, tied for the second-highest rate in football.
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Now, the Chiefs have actually been really good against perimeter wide receivers this season and Bashaud Breeland has been playing solid football on the outside as of late. But Sutton has five inches on him and could easily take advantage of that matchup. The high-upside breakout receiver remains a top-20 NFL DFS play for me.
Noah Fant is coming off a huge game on Sunday, catching all four of his targets for 113 yards and a touchdown. He made multiple big plays after the catch, which was his biggest strength coming out of college. Fant did leave the game after getting his foot stepped on and although he was carted off the field, the foot injury doesn’t sound too serious. He also is dealing with hip irritation so if Fant suits up, there is a good chance he won’t be at 100 percent.
Since Week 9, Fant is fifth among all tight ends in yards per route run (2.84), while his 14.1 yards per reception are second-best at his position this year. The Chiefs, meanwhile, are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game (11.5) and most receptions (6.5) per game to opposing tight ends.
Broncos running game
We saw another 18 touches from Phillip Lindsay last week, who is now averaging a healthy 17.5 touches per game since Week 11. His 70 total touches during that span are the 10th-most among all running backs. During that same span, Royce Freeman is averaging eight touches per game, so this is clearly Lindsay’s backfield. He found the end zone last week but because he hasn’t been having big games, his price hasn’t moved, keeping me interested on DraftKings.
The Broncos are big road dogs here, which typically isn’t a great spot for running backs, especially because Freeman is still taking some passing down work away. However, the Chiefs are so bad against the run, stuffing 12 percent of all carries at the line of scrimmage, the lowest rate in the NFL. They are also one of just eight teams allowing at least one rushing touchdown per game, while also surrendering 5.1 yards per attempt, the third-worst mark in football. Lindsay is a solid low-end RB2 this week.
Chiefs passing game
Don’t look now but Patrick Mahomes hasn’t thrown multiple touchdown passes in each of his last three games and six of his last eight. He’s still been pretty efficient, averaging 0.52 fantasy points per dropback (fifth-most) and 8.8 adjusted yards per attempt (2nd-most) but the touchdowns just haven’t been there as of late. You still aren’t benching Mahomes or anything but it definitely hasn’t been the most explosive year for the former MVP. This week’s matchup against the Broncos isn’t anything special, as Denver is coughing up the sixth-fewest fantasy points per pass attempt this season (0.39), as well as the ninth-fewest yards per completion (10.0). Mahomes is also dealing with a bruised throwing hand, making him someone I will hardly get to in NFL DFS this week.
Tyreek Hill has been under 70 yards in each of his last two games, failing to score in both contests. We know there is obviously slate-breaking upside with Hill each and every week, averaging 2.90 yards per pass route, the fifth-best mark among all receivers. Chris Harris Jr. didn’t shadow Hill when these teams met back in Week 7, though Hill did run past him on a 57-yard touchdown.
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Travis Kelce continues to be one of the most consistent players in all of fantasy. Kelce has seen at least eight targets in 12 games this season, while his 23.2 percent target share is fourth-best among all tight ends. He has also recorded at least 60 receiving yards in all but two games on the year, while ranking first among all tight ends in receiving yards (989) and completed air yards (658). Kelce is second in targets (109) and deep targets (14), while ranking fourth in yards per reception (13.2), fifth in yards per target (9.1) and seventh in yards per pass route (2.44). He is as safe as they come and at $6,500 on DraftKings, he is probably a little bit too cheap this week.
Chiefs running game
Surprise, surprise, the Kansas City backfield is a mess. With Damien Williams out with a hamstring injury and Darrel Williams on injured reserve, the Chiefs turned to LeSean McCoy, rookie Darwin Thompson and familiar face Spencer Ware against the Patriots on Sunday. The results weren’t very pretty. Ware ended up leading the backfield with 40 percent of the snaps, while McCoy and Thompson checked in at 31 and 27 percent, respectively. McCoy led the way with 12 touches but the Chiefs are limiting him, and after clinching the AFC West last week, they will continue to limit him. Thompson had four carries and four catches while Ware touched the ball six times for two total yards. Honestly, I don’t want to play anyone from this backfield outside of deeper formats, especially if Williams returns.
