With the early games in the books, we have compiled the afternoon slate from Adam Pfeifer’s NFL DFS matchups article into one source. Be sure to check out the full 15,000-word article every single week, published Thursday.
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NFL DFS Late Slate
Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos | Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers | Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles | Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Detroit Lions @ Denver Broncos
Total: 38
Line: DEN -7
Lions passing game
David Blough opened the first half of his first start on Thanksgiving with 150 yards and a pair of impressive touchdowns against the Bears. Since then, he has been awful, throwing for 465 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions. Blough is 31st among qualified quarterbacks in adjusted completion rate (71.4%) and 47th in yards per attempt (6.2), limiting the upside of this entire passing attack. There is zero reason to use him in any fantasy lineup, especially against a Denver defense that is coughing up the ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (14.9).
Even with Blough under center, it was odd to see Kenny Golladay post just three catches for 44 yards in a great spot against the Buccaneers. He’s still found the end zone in two of three games alongside Blough but his ceiling won’t be consistently reached, especially in this tough matchup. Golladay will line up against Chris Harris Jr., who has shadowed nine different times this season. In those instances, Harris has allowed 20 catches for 299 yards and one touchdown. He is being targeted just 15.9 percent of the time, the second-lowest rate among all cornerbacks, as well as just 0.33 fantasy points per coverage snap. Meanwhile, the Broncos as a team are surrendering the eighth-lowest average depth of target (7.7) and ninth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts. I have serious worries about Golladay here in championship week.
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However, Danny Amendola actually sets up fairly well here. He’s seen 29 targets and a team-high 23.8 percent target share since Blough took over at quarterback, while averaging nearly 12 fantasy points per game in PPR formats. Amendola is being targeted on 17.2 percent of his snaps over the last three weeks, which is the sixth-highest rate among receivers with at least 20 targets during that span. Blough, meanwhile, is targeting the slot a whopping 52.1 percent of the time through his three starts, which is the second-highest rate among all quarterbacks. He has emerged as a viable WR3 in PPR leagues, especially since the Broncos have been vulnerable to opposing secondary receivers. Don’t sleep on him this NFL DFS weekend.
Lions running game
Yuck. With Bo Scarbrough out last week, something called Wes Hills carried the ball 10 times for 21 yards and a pair of touchdowns. It seems as if whenever the Lions activate a running back off the practice squad, they immediately use him as their lead back. Anyway, between the potential return of both Scarbrough and Kerryon Johnson, who is eligible to return this week, this backfield is easily an avoid for me in NFL DFS.
Broncos passing game
The Broncos offense didn’t get anything going in snowy Kansas City last week. Still, you have to be somewhat impressed with what we’ve seen from Drew Lock during his three starts. He is averaging a respectable 0.45 fantasy points per pass attempt, while completing 73.7 percent of his red zone passes. I like him a lot for NFL DFS as a cheaper quarterback play at just $5,600 on DraftKings this week, hosting a bad Lions defense that is coughing up the most fantasy points per pass attempt over the last six weeks (0.60). The Lions are also surrendering the second-highest average depth of target in the league (10.1), while sporting the sixth-lowest pressure rate in the NFL (20.1 percent). Detroit is also surrendering 12.3 yards per completion, tied for the second-highest mark in the league.
Courtland Sutton may not have made the Pro Bowl in the AFC but there is no doubt that he’s a rising star in this league. He’s enjoying a breakout campaign, ranking fourth in the AFC in receiving (1,019). I absolutely love his upside in this spot, hosting a bad Lions defense. Detroit is coughing up the second-highest average depth of target in football (10.1), as well as 12.3 yards per completion, tied for the second-highest mark in the league. Sutton, meanwhile, has seen 40 percent of Denver’s air yards this season, the third-highest rate among all receivers. He is averaging 6.8 air yards per attempt, while ranking 10th in the league in deep targets.
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The Lions, meanwhile, are allowing the most completed air yards in the NFL and are fifth in the league with 110 missed tackles. That bodes well for Sutton, who leads all wideouts in broken tackles. Did you see what Detroit just let Breshad Perriman do last week? Sutton is one of my favorite receiver plays of the entire slate and I’m firing him up as a high-end WR2.
I also have interest in Noah Fant for NFL DFS. He is a little banged up but should be good to go for this game. There is so much upside with Fant, who is second among all tight ends in yards per reception (14.8), ninth in yards per target (8.7) and 14th in yards per pass route (2.09). The Lions, meanwhile, are allowing the most passing plays of 20 yards or more on the year (66), while Fant is sixth among all tight ends in yards per route run since Week 8 (2.53).
Broncos running game
With Denver trailing throughout last week’s game, Phillip Lindsay saw his snap rate drop down to 39 percent, while Royce Freeman, who Denver prefers in pass-blocking situations, logged 54 percent of the snaps. However, during the team’s previous two wins, Lindsay’s snap rates were at 44 and 53 percent, while averaging 19 touches per game during that span. The Broncos are healthy home favorites here, setting this up as a nice spot for Lindsay. The Lions are stuffing just 13 percent of all carries at the line of scrimmage this year, the second-lowest rate in football and now run-stuffer Mike Daniels is done for the year.
Oakland Raiders @ Los Angeles Chargers
Total: 45
Line: LAC -7
Raiders passing game
It was another low-ceiling game from Derek Carr last week, as he threw for 261 yards and one touchdown. In games where the Raiders are either leading or competitive, Carr just isn’t going to attempt many passes, as he’s yet to reach 40 pass attempts in a game this season, while averaging just over 31 attempts per game. Over the last six weeks, Carr is 24th in the league in fantasy points per pass attempt (0.40) and is now facing a Chargers defense that is allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing passers over the last four weeks (13.4).
The presence of safety Derwin James drastically alters this defense. According to The QuantEdge, opponents are sporting a 52.4 percent pass success rate with James off the field compared to 38.5 percent success rate with him in the lineup. Their explosive pass rate jumps from 4.6 percent to a whopping 14.7 percent with him out of the lineup, too. Playing Carr this week (or any week) isn’t exciting whatsoever.
After a six-game touchdown drought, Tyrell Williams returned to the end zone last week, but was only targeted three times. Williams hasn’t seen more than seven targets in a game all year long and hasn’t been over six targets since Week 4. Now he enters a tough Week 16 matchup with Casey Hayward, who is allowing just 0.31 fantasy points per coverage snap this season (18th), as well as an 18.4 percent target rate (10th). Williams is someone I haven’t been interested in for NFL DFS all year long and that won’t change this week.
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It will be interesting to see if Darren Waller is impacted by the possible return of Hunter Renfrow. Waller still hasn’t found the end zone but he’s reached the 100-yard mark in two of the last three games, while seeing a healthy 25 targets during that span. But Renfrow’s presence hurt his upside a bit earlier on in the season. From Weeks 8-12, Renfrow actually led the Raiders in red zone targets (7) and was second in overall targets (27). He was also targeted on a whopping 16.7 percent of his snaps during that span. The biggest problem is that he and Waller both operate in the same area of the field, as Renfrow has lined up out of the slot 73.3 percent of the time this season.
Waller’s aDOT of 7.68 is very close to Renfrow’s 6.63 so I truly believe his return is a slight downgrade for Waller. He’s still third among all tight ends with a 24.3 percent target share and 103 targets and even if his targets drop one or two, he still has a ceiling. Waller is eighth among all tight ends in yards per reception (12.5), second in yards per target (9.7) and third in yards per pass route (2.92).
Raiders running game
Well, at least we have some clarity. Playing through a hurt shoulder for the majority of the season, Josh Jacobs has been banged up quite a bit. He reportedly had difficulty taking his shoulder pads after last week’s game and head coach Jon Gruden has already ruled his rookie running back out for this weekend. This means we’ll get the DeAndre Washington week after all, just a week late. When Jacobs was ruled out late in the afternoon in Week 14, Washington played 63 percent of the snaps, touching the football 20 times. He touched the ball on 50 percent of his snaps but the surprising development was the fact that he ran 18 pass routes and saw seven targets.
Washington is now set to be the lead back in an offense that is calling run at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL (45 percent). The Raiders will continue to establish the run, while opposing offenses are calling run 46.3 percent of the time against the Chargers this year, the third-highest rate in the league. Pencil in Washington as a low-end RB2/FLEX play and an elite value play in NFL DFS.
Chargers passing game
After an awesome outing in Week 14, Philip Rivers turned back into an aging, old, dad-running pumpkin last week, throwing one touchdowns and three interceptions, while also losing a fumble. I do like him to bounce back this week, hosting a bad Oakland secondary. The Raiders are allowing the second-highest passing touchdown rate in the NFL at 7.0 percent, while pressuring the quarterback just 19.8 percent of the time, the fifth-lowest rate in football. Rivers, meanwhile, has been contacted by a defender on just 8.6 percent of his dropbacks this season, the fifth-lowest rate in the league.
He is also suddenly sixth in the league with 69 deep ball attempts, while ranking fifth in completed air yards. Oakland gives up the most passing plays of 20 yards or more (66), as well as 12.3 yards per completion, tied for the second-highest mark in football. With plenty of weapons at his disposal, Rivers should be able to have himself a strong NFL DFS outing, as four quarterbacks in a row have scored at least 18 fantasy points, while only the Dolphins are allowing more points per drive (2.52).
Keenan Allen’s upside has definitely been capped a bit since the Chargers have been at full strength on offense, but he’s still a very strong option most weeks. His 26.2 percent target share is ninth-best in the league, while his 130 targets are fifth-most. Allen has recorded at least 65 receiving yards in eight games this season, including each of his last five contests. This is a strong matchup, as 71.3 percent of the yardage surrendered by the Raiders has come through the air, the seventh-highest rate in football, while 66.6 percent of the touchdowns allowed by this defense have been via the pass, the ninth-highest rate.
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Allen is the safer play but I absolutely love the potential of Mike Williams in this spot. After failing to score in his first 11 games, Williams has now found the end zone in each of the last two games. The big plays have been there all year, as Williams has posted a catch of at least 40 yards in each of his last six games. He also leads the NFL in yards before the catch per reception (16.6), while no receiver is averaging more yards per reception (20.7). Williams is also fourth in the league with 11.3 yards per target.
That all bodes well for a matchup with the Raiders, who are allowing the most yards per completion in football (12.6), as well as the most passing plays of 40 yards or more (16). His price is barely moving on DraftKings, as he’s still just $5,000 over there. Williams is a high-upside WR2 for me this week in a perfect correlation spot for NFL DFS.
Tight end Hunter Henry has been rather disappointing as of late. He’s been under 40 receiving yards in each of his last three games, while scoring just one touchdown since Week 10. Of course, he did find the end zone against this Raiders defense back in Week 10, while Oakland is coughing up the third-most fantasy points (11.8) and second-most receiving touchdowns (0.6) per game to opposing tight ends this season. By default, Henry is still a top-10 tight end but you are certainly starting guys like Tyler Higbee and maybe even Jared Cook over him at the moment.
Chargers running game
Melvin Gordon had an awful game last week, totaling 64 scoreless yards and fumbling twice. He was even benched for a bit but I like going back to him in tournaments. The Raiders are allowing the second-most points per drive in the league this season (2.52), as well as the 12th-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. As home favorites, this should be a 20-23-touch spot for Gordon against a defense that is allowing 1.7 rushing touchdowns per game over the last three weeks, the third-most in the NFL. And since Week 9, Gordon is still averaging a healthy 20.4 touches per game, while ranking ninth in the league in touches with 102. He’s a solid RB2 in this spot and an awesome GPP play, especially at just $5,600.
Of course, Austin Ekeler continues to be the more efficient and flat-out better football player. He is leading the NFL in yards per touch (7.1), while also leading all running backs with 892 receiving yards. Ekeler is also second in the league in yards after the catch per reception (10.6) and faces a Raiders defense that is allowing the fifth-most yards after the catch in football. Averaging a healthy 1.33 fantasy points per opportunity (13th), Ekeler doesn’t need 20 touches to provide you with RB2 numbers in PPR formats. Oakland, meanwhile, is surrendering the 12th-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, as well as the sixth-most receiving yards per game to the position (48.7).
