After a summer filled with research, rumors, trends and mocks, you are here. You’ve made it. It is Week 16, the fantasy championship for the majority of fantasy leagues around the world. One more week to sweat matchups and roster decisions. One more week to scour the waiver wire, to solidify yourself as a fantasy god. Of course, with everything on the line, this will be the most stressful week of the year. Luckily, this column isn’t going anywhere just yet, as we break down all of the action and help you with those tough lineup decisions. And if you aren’t in contention anymore, well, this article still offers plenty of value for all of the NFL DFS generates out there.
Here we go.
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NFL DFS Early Slate
Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons | Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins | Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts | Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns | New Orleans Saints at Tennessee Titans | Pittsburgh Steelers at New York Jets | New York Giants at Washington Redskins
NFL DFS Late Slate
Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos | Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers | Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles | Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Atlanta Falcons
Total: 45.5
Line: ATL -7
Jaguars passing game
Jacksonville’s offense was absolutely non-existent for the first three quarters of last week’s game against the Raiders. But in the final five minutes, Gardner Minshew tossed a pair of touchdown passes to give him a solid fantasy outing. He also added 27 rushing yards, giving him at least 25 rushing yards in seven games, which is a nice little bonus. Minshew certainly hasn’t played the quarterback position extremely well as of late but he could be worth a look as a cheaper NFL DFS play in a favorable matchup. The Falcons are sporting the third-lowest pressure rate in the NFL (19.5 percent), which bodes extremely well for Minshew, who is completing just 41.9 percent of his passes when under duress this year, the fourth-lowest mark among all quarterbacks.
The Falcons are also allowing the second-most yards after the catch in football this year, while Minshew is averaging a healthy 5.6 yards after the catch per completion, tied for the ninth-highest mark among all quarterbacks. Minshew could make for a very fine streaming option if you are hurting at quarterback, especially against an Atlanta defense that is allowing 21.5 fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers, the fifth-most in the NFL.
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D.J. Chark missed last week’s game with an ankle injury. He didn’t practice all week but he has received clearance to run and cut, giving him a much better chance of suiting up this weekend. With him inactive last week, Chris Conley logged 88 percent of the snaps and after a very slow start, ultimately finished with 49 yards and a pair of touchdowns. He was targeted eight times and on 16 percent of his snaps, the most among all Jaguars. Conley had three end zone targets in this game, tied for the most among all wideouts in Week 15 and if Chark sits again, those looks could continue, as Chark is 11th in the league with nine end zone targets, despite missing a game.
He would line up against Isaiah Oliver if Chark doesn’t play, a very favorable matchup. Oliver is being targeted on 20 percent of his coverage routes this season, one of the highest rates on the slate. He is also allowing a eighth-most receiving yards (679) and second-most yards after the catch (338), as well as a 70.2 percent catch rate. And if Chark is good to go, he will get this favorable matchup, making him a low-end WR2.
It was a disappointing game from Dede Westbrook last week. He was targeted just four times with Chark sidelined, catching just two of them for 14 yards. Prior to this game, Westbrook was providing a solid floor, catching at least five passes in each of the previous three contests. Westbrook would be nothing more than a low-end PPR flex play for me this week if Chark is active and even if he’s out again, I still wouldn’t exactly be thrilled to start Westbrook.
Jaguars running game
Leonard Fournette has now underwhelmed in three consecutive games. During that span, he hasn’t scored a touchdown, while averaging just 75.6 total yards per game. Of course, his presence in the passing game has provided him with a strong floor, as Fournette is averaging nine targets and 23.5 touches per game over the last four weeks. He still ranks second among all running backs in routes run (450) and targets (90), while his 89.8 percent opportunity share is also second at the position. The Falcons have been much, much better against running backs this season but Fournette is still too cheap for me at $7,200 on DraftKings against a defense that is still coughing up 2.40 points per drive, the fourth-most in the NFL.
Falcons passing game
We saw a solid performance from Matt Ryan last week, throwing for 210 yards and a pair of touchdowns against a depleted 49ers defense. San Francisco was without cornerbacks Richard Sherman and K’Waun Williams, while defensive lineman Dee Ford was also inactive. Ryan attempted 39 passes in this game, giving him 520 on the year (5th-most), averaging 40 per game. Atlanta is calling pass at the highest rate in football (67.4 percent), which has helped Ryan post nine 300-yard passing days, the second-most in the league.
This may not set up as a huge volume game from Ryan, as the Falcons should be able to run the football here, but with the Jaguars defense completely giving up as of late, he should still be able to have a productive game. Jacksonville is now coughing up 6.0 yards per play on the year, the fifth-most in football and over the last three weeks, they are allowing the second-most yards per completion (13.0). Since Week 12, the Jags have allowed seven touchdown passes, while failing to record an interception.
Julio Jones absolutely erupted against the short-handed 49ers defense last week. He caught 13 of an insane 20 targets for 134 yards and two touchdowns, including the game-winner. After sporting a target share of under 23 percent entering the week, Jones saw 51 percent of the Falcons targets in his first game this season without Calvin Ridley, who is on injured reserve. He was targeted on a whopping 33.9 percent of his snaps in this game and for the season, is being targeted on 18.2 percent of his snaps, the third-highest rate in all of football. Jones saw three end zone targets (most of Week 15), resulting in his first two trips to the end zone since Week 3. He should continue to see plenty of looks as the top option in this Atlanta passing game, making him a top-three wide receiver play for NFL DFS.
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The only player on the Jaguars defense that you even remotely worry about is A.J. Bouye, who has shadowed four different times this year, holding the opposition to 11 catches for 114 yards and one touchdown. But if they don’t shadow him with Bouye, Jones will face Tre Herndon, who has been targeted on 21 percent of his routes this season.
Choosing another Falcons receiver is a risk. Christian Blake and Russell Gage both ran 40 routes last week, two behind Jones. Blake ended up playing 85 percent of the snaps but failed to bring in his lone target, while Gage played 76 percent of the snaps, catching five of his six looks for 27 yards. He’s seen at least six targets in three of his last four games, though the upside isn’t fantastic. Gage is sporting the fifth-lowest average depth of target in the NFL (7.15), while his 8.8 yards per catch is ninth-lowest. With Ryan sporting the eighth-lowest average time to throw among active quarterbacks (2.56 seconds) and the Jaguars still generating pressure at the league’s fifth-highest rate (26.5 percent), Gage could have a solid PPR game as the safety valve, but don’t expect a huge NFL DFS outing.
Tight end Austin Hooper has been quiet in his two games since returning from a sprained MCL, catching just five passes for 52 yards. The opportunity will continue to be there for Hooper and this matchup is a favorable one, as the Jaguars are surrendering the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends over the last four weeks. During that same span, they are also allowing the sixth-most receiving yards (266) per game to the position, keeping Hooper inside the top seven.
Falcons running game
We know that Atlanta has had issues establishing the run this year. Devonta Freeman is 31st in the league in yards before contact per attempt (1.9), while his 4.3 yards per touch rank 45th among all backs. However, in favorable spots, we’ve seen the Falcons find some success on the ground. Against the Panthers in Week 14, Freeman rushed for 84 yards and a touchdown on 17 carries. And against the Cardinals he ran for 88 yards on 19 carries. This is another favorable matchup, as the Jaguars have been gashed by opposing ground attacks as of late.
Since Week 9, Jacksonville has allowed five running backs to eclipse 100 rushing yards, while coughing up an insane nine running back touchdowns during that span. They are now allowing the second-fewest rushing touchdowns per game on the year (1.4), as well as the second-most yards per carry (5.1). And over the last four weeks, no team in football is allowing more fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Averaging a solid 18.6 touches per game in three contests since returning from injury, Freeman is a very strong NFL DFS play this week.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Miami Dolphins
Total: 47
Line: MIA -1
Bengals passing game
Predictably, Andy Dalton struggled against New England’s elite pass defense last week, throwing for just 151 yards, one touchdown and four interceptions. He basically gets a polar opposite matchup this week, traveling to Miami to take on the Dolphins. Miami is coughing up a league-worst 2.60 points per drive, as well as a 7.2 percent passing touchdown rate, the highest mark in football. They are also only pressuring quarterbacks 17.5 percent of the time, which is the lowest rate in the league.
Dalton, meanwhile, has been contacted by a defender on 10.6 percent of his dropbacks, according to ESPN, the ninth-lowest rate among all signal callers, so he should have plenty of time to deliver the ball to his pass-catchers. The Dolphins are coughing up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks (21.7), while only three teams are surrendering more yards per completion than Miami’s 12.2. Dalton is just $5,200 on DraftKings and is averaging 16.2 DK points per game. That production at that price tag would be just fine this weekend.
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Tyler Boyd faced the worst matchup in fantasy last week and with Dalton struggling, it obviously wasn’t surprising to see Boyd post a dud. Like Dalton, things should turn around for him this week, facing a Dolphins defense that is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers on the season. He is still sporting a solid 24.6 percent target share on the year (17th), averaging 8.9 per contest. Boyd is still operating out of the slot 66.1 percent of the time and Dalton is targeting the slot 47.5 percent of the time this season, the fourth-highest rate in the league. Lining up against nickel corner Jomal Wiltz, who has allowed 312 yards, four touchdowns and a 111.0 passer rating in 200 coverage snaps this season, should lead to strong results. I have a good amount of interest in Boyd this weekend for NFL DFS.
During his first two weeks back, John Ross has played just 45 percent of the snaps, seeing just six total targets. If that playing time goes up, he could have himself a very big day as a GPP option in NFL DFS, as the Dolphins have really struggled to defend speedy perimeter receivers. They are coughing up 14.3 fantasy points per game to opposing left wide receivers, according to Pro Football Focus, the fifth-most in the league. That is where Ross lines up about 35 percent of the time this year. Miami is also allowing 7.8 yards per pass attempt this year, the second-most in football. Speedy receivers like Terry McLaurin, John Brown and Robby Anderson have gotten the Dolphins this year and Ross fits that bill.
Bengals running game
Wow. After a terrifying start to the season, Joe Mixon has turned it on as of late. In fact, since Week 10, Mixon ranks first in carries (130), second in rushing yards (605), third in 100-yard games (3), second in avoided tackles (26) and third in fantasy points among all running backs. During that same span, he is second in all of football with 143 touches, averaging a healthy 23.8 per game. Mixon is also touching the football on 52.2 percent of his snaps during that stretch, the eighth-highest rate among running backs with at least 50 touches. He is suddenly eighth in the league in opportunity share (75.8%) and ninth in carries (231).
Despite some tough matchups, Mixon has produced and now gets a dream spot against the Dolphins. Miami is stuffing just 13 percent of all runs at or behind the line of scrimmage this year, the second-lowest rate in football. That bodes extremely well for Mixon, as he has been running behind a Cincinnati offensive line that isn’t creating many running lanes. The Bengals are being stuffed 22 percent of the time, tied for the fourth-highest rate in football. Miami is also allowing a healthy 4.6 yards per carry (sixth-worst), while opposing offenses are calling run 47.5 percent of the time against the Dolphins, the second-highest rate in the league. Locked into 20 carries and in a great spot, Mixon is an elite NFL DFS play this week, and will likely be a popular one.
Dolphins passing game
Though it wasn’t pretty, Ryan Fitzpatrick had himself another productive fantasy outing last week, throwing for 279 yards and two touchdowns. Since Week 8, Fitzpatrick is the QB8 in all of fantasy, while averaging a respectable 0.45 fantasy points per dropback. During that span, he’s 11th in the league with 14 passing touchdowns and fifth among all quarterbacks in rushing attempts (50). Because Miami has no running game and are always trailing in games, the Dolphins are throwing the football a ton, calling pass 66.1 percent of the time, the second-highest rate in the league. As a result, Fitzpatrick has attempted at least 34 passes in nine of his last 10 games.
He remains an aggressive thrower that leads to big upside, as Fitzpatrick is sixth in the league in completed air yards per completion (7.0) and now he gets a gorgeous Week 16 matchup with the Bengals, who are surrendering 12.3 yards per completion, the second-most in the league on the year. Fitzpatrick has also rushed for at least 30 yards in three of his last four games, presenting him with a decent floor. He is my top streaming option of the week.
DeVante Parker stayed hot last week, hauling in a pair of touchdowns on seven targets. Over his last four outings, Parker has 24 catches for 457 yards and four scores but he’s been dominating for much longer than that. Since Week 4, Parker is 13th among all wideouts in both receiving yards (879) and yards per target (10.7), while serving as the WR9 in fantasy during that long stretch. He is a big play waiting to happen, averaging 12.4 yards before the catch per reception, the eighth-highest mark in the league, while his 16.2 yards per catch are 13th.
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Parker has remained an elite jump ball receiver, coming down with 51.7 percent of his contested targets, the eighth-highest rate in football. And Fitzpatrick has no issues taking shots to him, as 21 percent of his pass attempts have been into tight windows, the third-highest rate in football. Continue to treat Parker as no worse than a top-12 receiver, especially against a Bengals defense that is allowing the second-most yards per completion in football, as well as the fifth-most passing plays of 20 yards or more.
Since his two-game touchdown streak, Mike Gesicki has cooled off a bit. It was good to see him targeted eight times last week, hauling in half of them for 47 yards. When it comes to the tight end position, opportunity is what I am after and Gesicki is still seeing plenty of it, as no tight end in football has run more routes than him since Week 8 (293). The Dolphins are essentially using their athletic tight end as a wide receiver, as he is lining up in the slot 72.8 percent of the time, the highest rate among all tight ends. He is also third at his position in slot receptions (31) and slot targets (43), while ranking fourth in slot yards (342).
The Bengals have been a top-10 defense against opposing tight ends this season but they are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing slot receivers (20.8). I really like Gesicki’s NFL DFS upside and $3,600 price tag on DraftKings.
Dolphins running game
Patrick Laird still appears to be the lead back but could we be seeing a shift in the Miami backfield? After logging 19 touches and 82 percent of the snaps in Week 14, Laird went down to 48 percent of the snaps this past week, tied with Myles Gaskin. He still touched the ball 14 times but Gaskin was right behind him with 11 touches, while averaging 4.8 yards per carry. The three-win Dolphins have no reason to not take a longer look at Gaskin so I’m expecting a near split backfield heading into this week’s game with the Dolphins, making neither more than desperation flex options in the championship week. The matchup is definitely strong, as the Bengals are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points and fourth-most rushing yards per game to opposing backfields, which could make Gaskin a GPP punt play at $3,800.
Carolina Panthers @ Indianapolis Colts
Total: 46
Line: IND -7
Panthers passing game
After watching Kyle Allen repeatedly turn the ball over in a lost season, the Panthers have decided to see what the rookie can do. Will Grier will start at quarterback for Carolina this weekend and it’ll be interesting to see how his presence impacts the offense. Allen was playing poorly but he was still doing enough to keep the Carolina pass-catchers more than fantasy relevant. Grier was a very aggressive quarterback in college so perhaps his deep ball will be better than Allen’s. The only reason Grier would be fantasy relevant this weekend is his basement price across the industry that allows you to spend up elsewhere.
Hopefully the change in quarterback doesn’t negatively impact D.J. Moore, who has been outstanding this season. Allen was targeting him religiously, as Moore’s 94 targets since Week 6 are the fourth-most in football. He has seen double-digit targets in six games during that span, while averaging 10.4 targets per game. And over his last seven games, Moore has gone over the 100-yard mark four times, averaging 102 receiving yards per game during that stretch. I’m having a very tough time projecting him this week, as there is nothing wrong with the matchup.
The Colts are allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing receivers, while Pierre Desir, Moore’s assignment this week, has really struggled as of late. And on the season, Desir is allowing 2.18 fantasy points per target, 0.52 fantasy points per coverage snap, 16.0 yards per reception and 10.7 yards per target. He is also allowing 2.17 yards per coverage snap, the third-most in football, and we know Moore can make big plays. But I am downgrading him a bit for NFL DFS with the uncertainty at quarterback.
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Perhaps Curtis Samuel could actually benefit from the change. Samuel was involved in the red zone with Allen under center, as his 40 percent target share from inside the 10-yard line leads the NFL. That might change but he could also see better looks deep down the field. Samuel’s 51 percent catch rate is one of the worst in football but it isn’t all his fault. Just 65.6 percent of Allen’s pass attempts have been deemed catchable, the eighth-worst mark among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts this season. He is also completing just 21.2 percent of his deep attempts, which ranks 35th in the league. PFF graded just five of Samuel’s 23 deep targets as catchable, a laughable number. I am very intrigued to see how he looks alongside Grier.
Greg Olsen missed the last two weeks with a concussion but has apparently cleared the protocol and is ready to return. Perhaps the rookie signal caller relies on the veteran tight end in his first start, facing a Colts defense allowing the 12th-most fantasy points per game to the position this season. Despite missing a few games, Olsen is still fourth among all tight ends in routes run (405).
Panthers running game
The sky is blue, water is wet, pineapples don’t belong on pizza and Christian McCaffrey scored a lot of fantasy points. Ladies and gentlemen, I present, things that everyone knows. McCaffrey went off for 87 rushing yards and two touchdowns, as well as eight catches for 88 yards. His involvement in the passing game as of late has been through the roof, as he is leading the NFL in targets since Week 11 with 58, averaging a gaudy 11.6 per game.
It really seems like the Panthers are making an effort to get McCaffrey that 1,000/1,000 season but McCaffrey is also 389 total yards away from breaking Chris Johnson’s 2009 single-season scrimmage yardage record. This is a solid matchup for McCaffrey to pile up some catches, as the Colts are allowing 6.1 receptions per game to opposing backfields, the fourth-most in football. Continue to expect a boatload of fantasy points from McCaffrey this week.
Colts passing game
Jacoby Brissett has not been a great NFL DFS option as of late. Over the last four weeks, he is averaging just 14.4 fantasy points per game and 0.38 fantasy points per dropback, tied for 25th among all quarterbacks. And over the last six weeks, Brissett is averaging just 0.34 fantasy points per pass attempt, 32nd among quarterbacks. The Colts offense is missing a ton of pass-catchers, while the play-calling has been very conservative. Brissett is sporting the third-lowest completed air yards per completion (5.3) and fourth-lowest completed air yards per pass attempt (3.3), giving him a fairly low ceiling each week, especially with the Colts maintaining their run-first approach.
This week’s matchup with the Panthers isn’t bad, as they are coughing up the eighth-most fantasy points per pass attempt over the last six weeks (0.52), as well as eight passing scores and one interception. And over the last three weeks, Carolina is surrendering 13.0 yards per completion, the second-most in football. However, I still prefer both quarterbacks from the Bengals/Dolphins game as NFL DFS plays and streamers this week.
After a two-game absence, T.Y. Hilton returned to the lineup last Monday night, doing nothing until the Colts’ final offensive series, where he racked up a few catches in garbage time. The nine targets were nice, especially since he only played 52 percent of the snaps in his first game back. Hilton most likely isn’t 100 percent but he doesn’t want to quit on his team. Playing him in NFL DFS this week is pretty risky, especially against an above average corner in James Bradberry.
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Meanwhile, Zach Pascal led the team in catches (four) and receiving yards (44) last week, while playing 80 percent of the snaps. I doubt Hilton suddenly plays 75-80 percent of the snaps this week, which would keep Pascal in the WR3/flex discussion, especially since opposing number two receivers have had success against Carolina this season. The Panthers are also coughing up the seventh-most fantasy points and most receptions per game (15.1) to opposing wideouts on the year.
After an awesome Week 11 outing, Jack Doyle has been quiet over the last two weeks, catching just four of 11 targets for 46 yards. Still, since Week 13 (first week without Eric Ebron), Doyle is fifth among all tight ends in routes run (96) and seventh in targets (22). He is being targeted on 13.5 percent of his snaps during that span, a number that was only at 7.6 percent during the games before Ebron landed on injured reserve. Doyle also isn’t being asked to run-block as much, presenting him with more upside. In Weeks 1-12, Doyle averaged nearly 25 run-blocking snaps per game. However, over the last three weeks without Ebron, that number has dropped to 16.6 per game. He’s a fine seasonal play but I must admit, his price is a bit high in NFL DFS.
Colts running game
Marlon Mack hasn’t been productive in two games since returning from his hand injury. However, he was limited to just 41% of the snaps in Week 14, his first game back. And then last Monday night, the Saints beat the brakes off the Colts, giving Mack no chance to get anything going. Entering Week 16, he is a home favorite against a rookie quarterback and the worst run defense in football. The Panthers just allowed over 120 yards and two scores to Chris Carson last week and are now coughing up a league-worst 1.9 rushing touchdowns per game on the year.
Since Week 8, the Panthers have allowed an insane 16 rushing touchdowns, while 57.7 percent of the touchdowns surrendered by this defense this year have come via the run, easily the highest rate in football. You obviously don’t want Mack in a game where Indianapolis is chasing points but being touchdown favorites at home is very enticing. Mack is averaging 19.3 carries per game in the Colts six wins this season compared to just 12.5 in losses. With two weeks back in the offense and in an elite matchup, Mack returns to being a top-12 NFL DFS play for me this week.
