Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs
Total: 55.5
Line: KC -5.5
Texans passing game
It was fairly obvious that Deshaun Watson was going to have a good game on Sunday, but I didn’t expect him to go crazy like he did. Watson exploded against the Falcons, completing 28-of-33 passes for 426 yards and five touchdowns. The lack of pass rush by the Falcons gave Watson all day to find his receivers and he should be able to find success this Sunday against the Chiefs, despite the game being in Kansas City. The Chiefs are 21st in the NFL in sack rate (5.8%) and just lost some key pieces of their defensive line last Sunday night. Watson is third in the league in deep attempts with 29, averaging 5.8 per game. He’s also fourth in adjusted yards per attempt (8.7), so he’ll continue to take plenty of shots down the field. Watson is completing 51.7 percent of deep passes, the seventh-best mark in the league.
Of course, his rushing isn’t going anywhere, averaging 4.4 carries and 25 yards per game, while scoring three times on the ground. The Chiefs just allowed a rushing touchdown to Jacoby Brissett and are now coughing up the ninth-most rushing yards and second-most rushing touchdowns per game to opposing quarterbacks. In a game with the highest total of the week, fire up Watson as a top-three quarterback play once again.
In a game where Watson passed for 426 yards and five touchdowns, it was super upsetting to see DeAndre Hopkins with just seven catches for 88 yards. Hopkins still ranks fourth in the league in target share at 28 percent and seventh in receptions (31), but there is no denying that he’s been disappointing since his Week 1 outing on Monday Night Football. This is too talented of a player to be down for too long, so even though he didn’t go off in a smash spot last week, I still believe buying low on him in seasonal leagues makes a lot of sense.
I usually use a ton of stats to find good plays but for Hopkins, I truly believe it is only a matter of time before he has a huge game. It is also worth noting that the Chiefs are allowing 16.9 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers aligned on the left side, the most in football.
The Week 5 slate was broken, compliments of Will Fuller. One of the easier slow-starters to project for a big game, Fuller went off for a huge day, catching 14-of-16 passes for over 200 yards and three touchdowns. It was the ninth-best fantasy performance from a wide receiver in the history of the league, as Watson looked Fuller’s way early and often. Fuller now has 14 touchdowns in 16 career games alongside Watson and he leads the league in deep targets with 12, presenting him with huge upside each week, which isn’t new for Fuller. I have him as a low-end WR2 for this week’s matchup with the Chiefs in what could easily be a shootout.
With Kenny Stills inactive last week, Keke Coutee played more, but I was surprised to see him only play 43 percent of the snaps. Houston used more tight ends last week but Coutee still had three catches for 72 yards and will operate as the short target for Watson if Stills sits out again, making him an okay cash game punt in daily formats, especially if Watson faces more pressure than he did in Week 5.
Texans running game
In another positive game script, it was once again Carlos Hyde leading the way for the Texans. He carried the ball 21 times and found the end zone last week, while playing 64 percent of the snaps. Hyde is averaging 14.6 carries per game this season and gets an elite matchup with a Chiefs team that cannot stop the run, coughing up 5.3 yards per carry and 155.8 rushing yards per game. Just 12 percent of all carries against the Chiefs have been stuffed at the line of scrimmage, tied for the lowest rate in the NFL.
If Houston isn’t chasing points big here, Hyde could absolutely smash, making him a touchdown-dependent RB2 in seasonal leagues and a viable daily play at just $4,400. And given the injuries to the Chiefs right now, I’d be shocked if the Texans found themselves trailing by 20 or so in this game. That means that Duke Johnson, despite how efficient he’s been, isn’t on my radar as anything more than a PPR FLEX option. Duke is averaging 7.1 yards per touch (second-best) but isn’t playing consistent snaps, while averaging just 2.6 targets per game, as Watson would prefer to take off than check it down to his running backs.
Chiefs passing game
For the first time in his career, Patrick Mahomes started a game where the Chiefs failed to score 26 points. Mahomes has shockingly underwhelmed in fantasy over the last two weeks, scoring just one touchdown, though his huge yardage totals have kept him over 20 fantasy points in both games. He is dealing with an ankle sprain that will require treatment, though it doesn’t sound like he’s in danger of missing this game. You are obviously never benching Mahomes but when it comes to daily, I really don’t think you need to spend $7,500 on him this week, especially when there are a handful of strong plays in the $6,000 range. The Texans have a poor secondary and Mahomes is potentially getting his speedster back, keeping him in top-three consideration once again.
Speaking of, Tyreek Hill is expected to practice in full at some point this season and could make his return this weekend. Hill has missed the last four games with a shoulder injury but if he’s active, you have to love him. For starters, it isn’t as if it is a foot or hamstring injury that could pop back up and limit Hill, so his speed should be there. And speaking of that speed, it should be able to take advantage of these Houston corners, as they are some of the slowest in all of football. Feel free to insert him right back into your lineups and at just $6,900 on DK, I will have a ton of Hill if he’s good to go this week against a Texans defense surrendering the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers.
Sammy Watkins left Sunday night’s game early with a hamstring injury and has to be considered questionable to play in this game. He had the issue during the week and apparently aggravated it in the game, which is never a good sign. As a result, Byron Pringle played 78 percent of the snaps and if both Hill and Watkins were to somehow sit this week, he could become the chalk cheap wide receiver play, and a good one at that. However, I’d be pretty surprised if both sit and because the Chiefs also have Mecole Hardman and Demarcus Robinson, you need both to sit to consider Pringle. If Hill is active, I’ll be passing on both Hardman and Robinson at elevated price tags ($5,300, $5,900), despite the good matchup, though they wouldn’t be bad WR3 plays in seasonal formats if you need wide receiver help.
Travis Kelce caught just four of 10 targets for 70 yards last week, and has now failed to find the end zone in three weeks. Still, Kelce has reached 70 yards in every game this year, while reaching 85 yards in four contests. He is third among tight ends in targets (43), first in receiving yards (439), first in yards per reception (15.7) and second in yards per target (10.2) but has just one red zone reception. He’s still tied for first with 11 red zone targets and the touchdowns are going to come, so keep playing him with confidence.
Chiefs running game
Damien Williams returned on Sunday night and led the backfield in snaps with 34. He touched the ball 12 times and ran a healthy 20 routes. LeSean McCoy fumbled after a long catch and run and didn’t see the field very much in the second half. The team said it was due to pass protection issues, which I don’t really buy considering he’s a veteran who has been around for a long time. Meanwhile, Darrel Williams played 15 snaps and didn’t receive a carry. So entering Week 6, it appears that Damien is the Chiefs back you want, especially since he’s averaging 22 routes run per game. The Texans, meanwhile, appear to be the 2019 version of the Falcons, surrendering a league-leading 9.0 receptions per game to opposing running backs this season. Williams is a lower-end RB2 for me this week, while McCoy has fallen back to desperation flex status.
Washington Redskins @ Miami Dolphins
Total: 41
Line: WAS -3.5
Redskins passing game
Whoever is under center for the Redskins this week, it doesn’t matter. There should not be a single league where you should be playing Colt McCoy, Case Keenum or Dwayne Haskins. In DFS formats, I guess you could make the case for Keenum if he starts, but it is hard for me to play him when he’s the same price as Minshew.
Because this game features two struggling defenses, points will be scored. In fact, these teams are first and third in points per drive allowed, so rookie receiver Terry McLaurin could have himself a nice game. He’ll likely see coverage from Xavien Howard in this one but Howard has been up-and-down this year. If Washington pushes the ball down the field, McLaurin is the guy, as he has handled 51 percent of the team’s air yards thus far, the highest rate in all of football. The Dolphins are allowing a league-worst 7.0 yards per play this season to go along with 13.6 yards per completion, which is also the worst mark in football. I think McLaurin is a bit too expensive on DK this week at $6,000 but he is still a fine WR3 in seasonal leagues in a game where the Redskins should be able to put up points.
Paul Richardson has recorded 14 receiving yards in each of his last two games, one of which came without McLaurin. The Dolphins are awful but there is no ceiling with Richardson.
Redskins running game
New interim head coach Bill Callahan wants to focus on the run going forward, so could this present an opportunity for Adrian Peterson? For the rest of the season, probably not, but for Week 6? There is potential. There won’t be many games where Washington isn’t chasing points this year but this could be one of them against a bad Dolphins team. Miami is allowing 1.8 rushing touchdowns per game this season, easily the most in the league, while just 12 percent of opposing carries have been stuffed at the line of scrimmage, tied for the lowest rate in the league.
Meanwhile, their 5.26 adjusted line yards allowed are third-most in the league and with Peterson dominating the short-yardage work, it wouldn’t shock me to see him fall into the end zone twice, especially against a defense allowing 5.80 points per red zone possession, the most in football. It may seem gross, but Peterson is a low-end RB2 this week and a fine cheap running back play in daily formats.
Chris Thompson remains stupid efficient, as he leads all running backs in yards per touch (7.4). He has caught at least five passes in three of five games, while hauling in at least four in every contest. His 35 targets ranks third among all running backs, averaging a healthy seven per game, while his 124 routes rank eighth at his position. A big part of Thompson’s production has been due to the Redskins often trailing in games, as his -9.46 game script is one of the worst in the league. This seems like it could be more of a Peterson game, making him the preferred option, though Thompson still remains a viable PPR flex play.
Miami passing game
Josh Rosen is the starting quarterback in an NFL offense (sort of) and is just $4,500 on DraftKings. I’m not saying, I’m just saying. Plugging him into your lineup and praying allows you to play whoever you want and I’d be lying if I said I wasn’t at least intrigued by the idea. Washington has had one of the worst pass defenses in the league this season, allowing 0.58 fantasy points per pass attempt, the fifth-most in football. They have also surrendered a league-high 13 passing touchdowns while opposing passers are completing 26 passes per game, the fourth-most in football.
At his price tag, all you need from Rosen is 15 fantasy points, a number he hasn’t reached yet, but eight of his passes have been dropped this year, a huge number considering he’s only attempted 84 passes. With the Redskins also coughing up a healthy 2.63 points per drive (3rd-most), Rosen is worth a look as a GPP punt this weekend.
You don’t have to pair him but if you do, Preston Williams is your guy. He has been targeted 19 times by Rosen over the last two games and has seen 55.6 percent of Miami’s red zone targets this year, which is the highest rate of any wideout in all of football to this point. With plenty of red zone work and a solid 22.1 percent overall target share, Williams could have a good game here, especially against a Redskins defense allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers.
While I prefer Williams, I guess DeVante Parker isn’t the worst tournament option. There is still upside with Parker, who is averaging 20.1 yards per reception, while his 20.48 aDOT is the second-highest in football. Parker has handled 35 percent of the Dolphins air yards this season and will see Josh Norman, who is absolutely washed. He is allowing 0.51 fantasy points per coverage snap and 2.67 fantasy points per target, one of the worst marks among all qualified corners in the league. As a result, Washington is allowing 15.8 fantasy points per game to opposing receivers lined up on the right side, the second-most in the league.
Dolphins running game
Kenyan Drake has seen his touches and snaps climb over the last few games, making him an okay FLEX in deeper PPR leagues. But in DFS, he’s priced around other cheap running backs that I have more confidence in, especially since they are in much better offenses.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings
Total: 44
Line: MIN -3
Eagles passing game
I really liked Carson Wentz and Philadelphia’s passing game last week, but they didn’t do much. Of course, they also didn’t have to do much, as the Eagles defense scored two touchdowns of their own. As a result, Wentz has now been under 30 pass attempts in each of the last two games, while also falling under 190 passing yards in both outings. He heads into Minnesota to take on a tough Vikings defense that is coughing up the eighth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks this season. The Vikings are also allowing 8.0 yards per completion through five weeks, the lowest in all of football. They are giving up just 1.40 points per drive, the sixth-best mark in the league. In this tough road start, Wentz is more of a high-end QB2 than a QB1.
Alshon Jeffery didn’t find the end zone for the first time this season last week, but still saw a healthy eight targets, the most on the team. Despite playing just three full games, Jeffery is tied for eighth in end zone targets with four, while seeing 19 percent of the Eagles end zone looks, which is the sixth-highest rate in the league among qualified wideouts. That type of skill and usage makes him a solid WR2 most weeks, regardless of matchup, especially with Wentz ranking sixth in football with 27 red zone attempts.
The matchup isn’t great, however, as he’ll see Xavier Rhodes, who is a solid cover corner. At 6’1”, 210 lbs, Rhodes struggles more with smaller, shiftier receivers, which is not Jeffery’s build. Alshon has plenty of touchdown equity and with DeSean Jackson likely out again, he should see eight to 10 targets, making him a solid top-30 wide receiver play, though I think he lacks huge upside in this spot.
Like many other players, Zach Ertz scored his first touchdown of the year in Week 5. While the historic usage he saw last year is down, Ertz is still seeing 25.4 percent of the target share, the third-highest rate among all tight ends. His 45 targets is second at his position, while his 169 routes are fourth. You are starting him every single week but I thought it was odd to see his DK price go from $6,000 in Week 5 to $5,400 this week. That is a massive misprice and we’ve seen passing games funnel production to the tight end against Minnesota. The Vikings are allowing 9.4 targets per game to opposing tight ends, the third-most in the league, while also surrendering 7.0 catches per game to the position, the fourth-most in football.
Eagles running game
After looking like a potential afterthought to start the season, Jordan Howard’s value is now trending upward. He’s scored four touchdowns over the last two games while logging 53 and 43 percent of the snaps during that stretch. Head coach Doug Pederson stated that Howard is going to see more carries going forward, and is suddenly the top option in this Eagles backfield. He had 13 carries for 62 yards and a score last week and seems to be a lock for 12 to 15 carries (maybe more) in a good offense. That makes him a low-end RB2 or FLEX in standard leagues, despite the fact that the Vikings are allowing the second-fewest rushing touchdowns per game on the year.
So where does this leave Miles Sanders? He still played 29 snaps last week, tied with Howard, but carried the ball four fewer times. The thing that helps Sanders here is that Darren Sproles, who could take passing work away, has already been ruled out for this game with a quad injury and is considered week-to-week. This makes this a true two-man backfield with Sanders getting the nod in passing situations. The rookie running back is seventh at his position in yards per route run (2.08) and has seen four targets in three of his five games this year.
Vikings passing game
Kirk Cousins easily had his best game of the season against the Giants last week, throwing for 306 yards and two touchdowns on just 27 pass attempts. He completed 81 percent of his passes and averaged 11.3 yards per attempt, and while it seems like more of a matchup-based performance, his Week 6 matchup isn’t exactly bad either. The Eagles remain a massive pass-funnel defense, as 81.1 percent of all yardage against Philadelphia has come through the air, the second-highest rate in football.
Opposing offenses are also calling pass 68.5 percent of the time, the second-highest rate, despite the Eagles sporting an average scoring margin of just +6.0. It will be interesting to see if the Vikings can get their ground game going and if they can’t, will they abandon it? The Eagles are also allowing 1.8 passing touchdowns per game, tied for the ninth-most in football. Cousins is my second-favorite cheap DK quarterback of the week, making for a fine streaming option.
Adam Thielen stated that, at some point, you need to throw the ball. Cousins received the message and targeted him eight times. Thielen caught seven of those targets for 130 yards and two touchdowns, going off for 35 DK points. It still is entirely possible Cousins is under 30 pass attempts again and Thielen won’t be as efficient but the matchup is so, so good this weekend, facing an Eagles defense that is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers.
Thielen is still the WR1 in this offense and the Eagles have coughed up huge games to opposing number-one receivers this season. Davante Adams went for 180 yards a few weeks back, Julio Jones had 100 yards and two scores in Week 2 and Terry McLaurin went for over 100 and a score in Week 1, to name a few. And with slot man Chad Beebe hurt, it has allowed Thielen to move back inside more. He was in the slot on 44.4 percent of his snaps last week, his highest mark of the season. Finally, after his big Week 5 outing, Thielen’s price didn’t move ($6,700), making him a fantastic play once again.
Will the Vikings throw enough for both Thielen and Stefon Diggs to get theirs? It seems unlikely, although the spot for Diggs is great. The issue is that Diggs is 44th among all receivers with a 19.5 percent target share, while ranking 42nd in fantasy points per pass route (0.44). With that type of volume, you will need Diggs to be super-efficient, though this is a good spot for him to perform well, for all of the same reasons Thielen profiles well. But with Diggs’ volume so insanely low, he has gone from a high-end WR2 to a low-end WR3 in all leagues.
Vikings running game
Minnesota’s offense continues to run through Dalvin Cook and the running game. Cook is averaging 18.4 carries, 4.2 catches and 4.8 targets per game this season and is coming off a game where he eclipsed 200 scrimmage yards. His 6.6 yards per touch ranks sixth among all running backs, while his 3.74 yards after contact per attempt ranks fifth. Outside of Christian McCaffrey, Cook has been the most efficient high-usage back in the league. He draws a tough matchup with the Eagles, who are allowing 3.2 yards per rush attempt, the second-best mark in the league. 32 percent of all runs against the Eagles have been stuffed at or behind the line of scrimmage, the highest rate in football. Of course, Cook remains involved in the passing game, while Philadelphia is allowing 6.8 catches per game to opposing backs, the fifth-most in the league.
