The Awesemo NFL Fantasy Matchups Column with Adam Pfeifer: Game by Game Week 6 Breakdown (FREE)

Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals

Total: 51.5

Line: ATL -2.5

Falcons passing game

Dating back to last season, Matt Ryan has six consecutive 300-yard outings, making him appealing on DraftKings every single week. Of course, there are more reasons to love Ryan here. For starters, he remains a volume monster, leading the NFL in pass attempts with 222. Despite some red zone hiccups, Ryan still ranks third in pressured completion rate (49.3%) and fourth in play-action completion rate (74.5%). The latter is more impressive given the fact that Atlanta hasn’t been able to run the ball, which is a big reason why Ryan has attempted so many passes.

Given the way this offense (and defense) looks, Ryan is seemingly a lock for 300 yards, and in a game like this, three or four touchdowns is a strong possibility. We know the Cardinals lead the league in pace but the Falcons are also playing fast, averaging 26.4 seconds per play, the sixth-fastest pace in football. These teams also rank first and sixth in passing play percentage, so both offenses should see plenty of possessions here. Arizona is coughing up 0.60 fantasy points per pass attempt this season, the fourth-most in the league. Fire up Ryan as a borderline top-five play this week in what should be a shootout.

We have seen consecutive underwhelming games from Julio Jones as the All-Pro wideout has totaled seven catches for 94 yards over the last two weeks. He should get back to posting elite numbers this week, as the Cardinals will be without Patrick Peterson for one more week. The issues with the Falcons offensive line has made it a bit more difficult for Ryan to find Jones deep down the field but Jones is still sixth in the league in deep targets with six, averaging 2.20 per game. Jones is the obvious receiver to pair Ryan with and has a huge ceiling per usual, but especially in this style of game.

Calvin Ridley broke out of a mini slump last week, catching five balls for 88 yards and a touchdown. Ridley is still someone I’m saving for tournaments because his volume is so inconsistent, seeing target totals of six, 10, one, six and nine. He still leads the team in aDOT at 15.3, a number that also ranks 11th among qualified receivers. At his $5,700 price tag, I probably won’t play him outside of game stacks, though there is plenty of potential, as the Cardinals have allowed multiple touchdown passes in all but one game this year. Despite the dream spot, his inconsistent usage makes Ridley a borderline top-25 play for me.

Very quietly, Mohamed Sanu leads the Falcons in routes run with 211, a number that ranks third among all wideouts. Sanu scored his first touchdown of the year last week and has now caught at least five passes in each of his last three games. He’s accomplished that feat in all but one game this year, too. Given his snaps, routes and the pass-happy offense he’s in, Sanu will provide a very strong floor most week, making him a solid cash game play. Because Ryan has been under pressure about six percent more often than last year, Sanu and his intermediate game have benefited, as his 7.34 aDOT is the 10th-lowest in football. In a high-pace game against a poor defense, Sanu has more upside than usual and is a very strong play.

The chart. It is flowing. Tight ends against the Cardinals continue to be the move, despite what Tyler Eifert did (or didn’t do) last week. Arizona has coughed up six tight end touchdowns already, as well as the most fantasy points per game to the position. Hooper has been locked in this year, running a route on 80 percent of Ryan’s dropbacks. And when you consider Ryan leads the NFL in dropbacks (240), you love Hooper’s upside. His 19.5 percent target share is seventh-best among tight ends, while his 8.6 yards per target is eighth-best. Because he’s been so involved this year, you can legitimately make the argument that Hooper is the best tight end play of the slate.

Falcons running game

It was another inefficient day on the ground for Devonta Freeman, who is now averaging 3.2 yards per carry on the year. However, he caught all five of his targets for 40 yards and a score on Sunday, giving him 16 catches on 18 targets over the last three games. Ryan has checked it down to his running back more often this year, likely due to the aforementioned offensive line issues.

Ito Smith is still playing too much to consider Freeman anything more than a mid-range RB2, as he played 47 percent of the snaps last week, while Freeman was at 54 percent. Smith has also handled 57 percent of Atlanta’s carries from inside the 10-yard line, while Freeman is at just 28.6 percent, so you can’t say that Freeman is the unquestioned short-yardage back. Because of that, I won’t have any Freeman at near $6,000 on DK, but he remains a viable RB2 play in seasonal leagues.

Cardinals passing game

The Falcons pressured Deshaun Watson on six percent of his dropbacks last week, the lowest rate of his career, according to Next Gen Stats. That is insane and should tell you all you need to know about Kyler Murray’s prospects here in Week 6. Atlanta now ranks 31st in the league in sack rate (3.1%), which should help Murray and Arizona’s below average offensive line. After not running at all to start the season, Murray is running wild as of late. He rushed for 93 yards and a score last week, giving him 22 carries for 189 yards and a score over the last three weeks. This unlocks all sorts of upside with Murray, who could go nuts again in this spot.

The Falcons just allowed 430 yards and five scores to Watson last week, and are now coughing up 0.64 fantasy points per pass attempt, second-worst to only the Dolphins on the season. Atlanta is also allowing a touchdown on 65 percent of red zone trips, the ninth-highest rate in football. Murray, meanwhile, is tied for second among all signal callers in pass attempts from inside the 10-yard line this year (15). With a lack of pass rush and the Falcons allowing a healthy 11.7 yards per completion, we could also see Murray push the ball down the field more. The rookie is beginning to unlock his full potential and should smash this weak defensive unit.

Larry Fitzgerald underwhelmed last week against the Bengals, despite Christian Kirk missing this game. Fitzgerald is second in routes run (213) and continues to operate from the slot 94 percent of the time, the highest rate in the league. This is a dream spot for the veteran, as the Falcons are allowing 31.9 fantasy points per game to the slot, per PFF, the most in the league. He’ll line up against former safety Damontae Kazee, who has allowed 10 catches for 142 yards and a score on 13 targets in slot coverage. He is also coughing up nearly 0.50 fantasy points per route. 8-10 targets is essentially a lock for Fitzgerald, while that number could jump to the 12-15 range if Kirk sits out again with his ankle injury.

If Kirk is active, I would play him as a solid WR3 in this dream spot, as he also plays a ton in the slot with Arizona using four-wide over 70 percent of the time.

With Kirk out last weekend, KeeSean Johnson played 95 percent of the snaps. Meanwhile, Trent Sherfield was at 77 percent with Andy Isabella and recently-signed Pharoh Cooper combined for 28 total snaps. Of course, Damiere Byrd also sat out last week, opening up a ton of opportunity for these receivers. Both Kirk and Byrd were limited in practice and could return to the lineup this week, making all of these guys unplayable. If one or both sit, Johnson is worth a look as a punt, as he saw seven targets last week.

Cardinals running game

David Johnson is nursing a back issue and didn’t practice on Wednesday. It is entirely possible he doesn’t play this weekend, which would make Chase Edmonds, who touched the ball 11 times for 86 yards and a touchdown on Sunday, the absolute lock of the week. The Falcons have been better against pass-catching running backs this season but are still a poor defense and have allowed 100 rushing yards or a touchdown in four of five games this season. Of course, if Johnson plays, you roll him out there as a top-seven running back play. He’s averaging 6.6 targets per game this season, as the Cardinals continue to go extremely pass-heavy, especially when in close.

San Francisco 49ers @ Los Angeles Rams

Total: 50.5

Line: LAR -3

49ers passing game

While this game could definitely shoot out, I just don’t see myself getting to much Jimmy Garoppolo here. While Kirk Cousins gets all the attention in terms of low volume passers, Garoppolo is right there, attempting fewer than 30 passes in all but one game this season, averaging 28.2 per game. I can’t pay $5,700 for that type of volume, especially since San Francisco’s wide receivers have been underwhelming so far this season. The Rams have allowed 653 passing yards and eight touchdown passes over the last two weeks, so the matchup isn’t too bad. I just hate Garoppolo’s price and worry about his ceiling in this run-first offense.

The 49ers are essentially using a wide receiver by committee approach, making these guys unappealing for fantasy purposes. No wideout on this team is playing more than 63 percent of the snaps, but five are playing 30 percent or more. If I had to pick one, it would be Marquise Goodwin, as he’s playing nearly 63 percent of the snaps and is the big play receiver in this offense. However, I am not expecting much from this passing game.

George Kittle is obviously the only pass-catcher you feel good about using, especially after last Monday night. Kittle caught six balls for 70 yards and a touchdown last week and constantly fought for extra yardage. In two games against the Rams last year, Kittle hauled in 14 balls for 247 yards and two scores. He is once again deadly with the ball in his hands, ranking fourth among tight ends in yards after the catch per reception. The only negative surrounding Kittle is that he’s second at his position in run-blocking snaps (134), as the 49ers remain run-heavy. Still, his upside is second to none and is too cheap over on DK.

49ers running game

Matt Breida ripped off an 83-yard touchdown run on the opening play last Monday night, while adding a touchdown reception later on in the game. Per usual, Breida looked good, clocking in at 23 mph on his touchdown run, the fastest we’ve seen a ball carrier so far this season. Of course, head coach Kyle Shanahan continues to use multiple backs, as Tevin Coleman returned from his ankle injury and carried the ball 16 times for 97 yards and a touchdown.

Breida got the start but Coleman got more carries, while both backs played 26 snaps. This is a two-man backfield, as Jeff Wilson was a healthy scratch, while five of Raheem Mostert’s seven carries came late in the fourth quarter with the game put away. Going to Coleman rather than Breida saves you a healthy $700 on DK this week, making him my preferred option, especially given his familiarity with Shanahan and this offense. Breida probably has the higher ceiling, as he’s a more explosive back, averaging 6.7 yards per touch, fourth-best among running backs. But because the 49ers are running the ball a league-high 56.6 percent of the time, both warrant lower-end RB2/FLEX consideration for the time being.

Rams passing game

Over the last two weeks, Jared Goff has attempted a whopping 117 passes while passing for 912 yards during that span. He’s back at home this week where he has been better over the course of his career and so far this season, Goff has a six percent higher completion rate at home, while his passer rating is at 77.8 on the road compared to 89.8 at home. Because the Rams have abandoned the run at times this year, Goff is tied for first with 222 pass attempts, making him a solid play each week, regardless of matchup. The 49ers defense has been strong so far this season, while that pass rush led by Nick Bosa is starting to heat up. San Francisco is coughing up just 1.09 points per drive on the year, the third-lowest mark in the league. Goff is a volume play this weekend.

Cooper Kupp is on an absolute tear right now. He has scored a touchdown in three straight games, finding the end zone four times during that stretch, while seeing target totals of 17, 15 and 12. Kupp is now third in the league with a 28.5 percent target share, while his 63 targets are second-most in football. He’s doing it all, whether it is scoring touchdowns, racking up receptions or making plays with the ball in his hands, as Kupp leads the league in yards after the catch (234), averaging nearly four per target. He is one of the safest players in all of fantasy right now, especially with Brandin Cooks questionable to play this week with a concussion. Kupp has emerged as a legitimate top-seven fantasy wideout the rest of the way.

Because Kupp has been elite but the Rams passing game as a whole has underwhelmed, Robert Woods hasn’t gotten off to the greatest start. He’s still fifth in the league in targets (47) and should have scored a touchdown last week. I love his $5,600 price tag on DK, especially if Cooks can’t play with the concussion. He’ll have the toughest matchup, facing Richard Sherman, who is allowing 1.37 fantasy points per target, just outside the top 20 among all cornerbacks this season. Still, in this pass-happy Rams offense, Woods should continue to provide a strong floor.

If Cooks plays, view him as a lower-end WR2. The upside is certainly there but it is very clear who the top option in this passing game is.

Tight end Gerald Everett was head coach Sean McVay’s very first draft pick in this Los Angeles regime. He told him that he viewed him as his new Jordan Reed (the two were together in Washington) and we are finally starting to see it. Over the last two games, Everett has hauled in 12 of 19 targets for 180 yards, while playing 56 and 81 percent of the snaps during that span. Everett now ranks sixth among all tight ends in routes run (138) and offers insane big play ability, ranking seventh among qualified tight ends in yards per target (9.7).

It looks like the Rams are using him more each week and because Los Angeles is calling pass 10 percent more this season, Everett is playing more, as teammate Tyler Higbee is used more as a run-blocker. With four teams on a bye and tight end looking brutal, Everett is a top-10 play at the position this weekend.

Rams running game

Despite not looking fantastic, Todd Gurley has been good for fantasy purposes due to his four rushing touchdowns over the last two weeks. Of course, now he is dealing with a thigh contusion, which kept him sidelined at practice on Wednesday. This matchup is pretty poor, as the 49ers have yet to allow a rushing touchdown this season and are allowing just 11.1 fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, the lowest number in the league. If Gurley plays, he is looking like a touchdown-dependent RB2. If he’s inactive, Malcolm Brown will enter the RB2 discussion as Gurley’s direct backup, while rookie Darrell Henderson, who has just two carries on the year, will finally get more looks.

Tennessee Titans @ Denver Broncos

Total: 40.5

Line: DEN -2

Titans passing game

To (hopefully) no one’s surprise, Marcus Mariota turned back into a pumpkin in last week’s tough matchup with the Bills. Things don’t get much easier this week, as the Titans head to Denver to take on a Broncos defense that just held Philip Rivers to 211 passing yards, two interceptions and zero touchdowns last week. After failing to generate much of a pass rush to start the season, the Broncos are now sporting a 27.1 percent pressure rate without blitzing, per ESPN, the sixth-highest rate in the NFL. That doesn’t bode well for Mariota, who is completing just 22 percent of his passes when under pressure, which ranks 32nd in football. They are also allowing 0.8 passing touchdowns per game, the fourth-fewest in the league. Do not consider Mariota most weeks, but especially this one.

Because Chris Harris is no longer exclusively in the slot, he is starting to shadow more often, which is bad news for Corey Davis, who continues to struggle when facing top-tier cornerbacks. He still isn’t getting many targets, ranking 56th in the league with an ugly 16.7 percent target share. Meanwhile, despite his upside, A.J. Brown is still playing less than 50 percent of the snaps. Because he is third in the NFL in yards after the catch per reception (9.50), he does warrant GPP consideration, especially if Davis gets shut down by Harris.

Despite usually having a high floor, Delanie Walker has caught just two passes for 14 yards on four targets over the last two weeks, which is just odd to see. You obviously don’t love the numbers but the tight end position is so bad that you have to keep rolling Walker out there.

Titans running game

With Tennessee remaining in games, Derrick Henry continues to get plenty of work. He is third in the league with 98 carries, averaging 19.6 per game. His touchdowns have been a bit lucky, as three have come from penalty and one came last week after Mariota was ruled down at the one-yard line. Of course, the Titans continue to pound the rock, calling run 46 percent of the time, the sixth-highest rate in the league. Henry has handled 100 percent of Tennessee’s carries from inside the five-yard line this year, tied for the highest rate in the league. The Broncos have been much more vulnerable against the run this season, coughing up six running back touchdowns already. In a game with a close spread, Henry should once again see around 20 carries and all of the goal line work.

Broncos passing game

While he isn’t shattering records or anything, Joe Flacco is playing much better than anyone thought he would while keeping two Denver receivers fantasy-relevant. Of course, there still isn’t a lot of upside in using Flacco, who has just one 300-yard game and six passing touchdowns through five games. The Titans are also bottom-12 in fantasy points allowed to opposing quarterbacks.

Courtland Sutton is emerging as the top receiver in Denver, scoring three touchdowns over the last two weeks, while seeing a healthy 16 targets. When the Broncos take shots down the field, Sutton is the recipient, seeing 35 percent of the team’s air yards, which is the 12th-highest rate in the NFL. And after Emmanuel Sanders started the season as the prime red zone option, Sutton suddenly leads the league with seven red zone receptions, while his 11 red zone targets are seventh-best in football. Sutton is catching 57 percent of his contested targets, the 13th-highest rate in the league. He is improving each and every week and should now be viewed as the top wideout in Denver. The Tennessee secondary is vulnerable and Sutton will line up against Malcolm Butler, who has allowed 25 catches for 334 yards and three touchdowns in coverage this season.

Sanders has been up and down over the last four games, posting stat lines of 1-9, 5-104, 2-10 and 11-98-1. He is still eighth in the league with four end zone targets, while Adoree’ Jackson is super inconsistent. View Sanders as a mid-range WR3 this weekend.

It didn’t work out last week but I have no issues going back to the well with tight end Noah Fant. He still played 67 percent of the snaps and remains very explosive. Fant gets another solid matchup with the Titans, who are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season (12.3), as well as the second-most touchdowns per game to the position (0.8).

Broncos running game

Phillip Lindsay looked fantastic last week, carrying the ball 15 times for 114 yards and a touchdown, while adding four catches for 33 yards. Lindsay remains the lead short-yardage back in this offense, seeing six carries from inside the five-yard line, while Royce Freeman has one such carry. That alone makes Lindsay the preferred play each week but because Denver has been so run-heavy, there has been room for both backs to have good games. Lindsay is averaging over 17 touches per game, while Freeman is averaging a solid 14.2 touches per game. Despite the tough matchup, both are viable flex options, with Lindsay making more of a case to be a RB2 play.

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets

Total: 44.5

Line: DAL -7

Cowboys passing game

Dak Prescott had his flaws last week but still had a very good fantasy day due to volume. He passed for 463 yards and two scores, while throwing three interceptions. Prescott has still been mostly good this season, completing 64.3 percent of deep passes, the highest rate in the NFL, while his 76.5 percent play-action completion rate is third-best. The Jets defense remains very banged up and the secondary is poor. 74.8 percent of all yardage surrendered by New York this season has come through the air, the fifth-highest rate in the league. You should keep rolling out Prescott as a top-seven fantasy quarterback, though due to other players I like more at a similar price tag, I likely won’t get to him much in DFS this weekend.

Amari Cooper continues to thrive, as he torched Green Bay’s Jaire Alexander last weekend, hauling in 11 balls for 226 yards and a touchdown. Cooper now ranks third in the league in receiving yards (512) and second in completed air yards (398), averaging 9.3 air yards per target. His 11.9 yards per target are eighth-best at his position, while his 3.37 yards per pass route is sixth-best. Cooper has been so efficient, averaging 0.75 fantasy points per pass route. These Jets corners won’t slow him down and at $7,000 on DK, I believe he is underpriced.

He’s only played three games, but no one in the league is averaging more receiving yards per game than Michael Gallup this season (113). Gallup is also top-10 in yards per target (11.7), giving him massive upside with each pass attempt heading his way. New York is allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers this season and Gallup has a very intriguing $5,600 price tag on DK. I love what I’ve seen from the second-year receiver in this offense and this week, he’s a mid-range WR2 for me.

Cowboys running game

We have yet to see a ceiling game from Ezekiel Elliott, which is scary considering he’s scored at least 17 fantasy points in each of his last four games. He is back to playing nearly every snap, while also averaging a healthy 4.6 targets per game over the last three weeks. The high-end running backs aren’t fantastic this week, mainly because McCaffrey plays in the early London game, but Elliott’s volume is locked in right now and he’s a favorite against a poor team. New York has allowed 1.2 rushing touchdowns per game this season, the fifth-most in the league through five weeks and they still remain without C.J. Mosley in the heart of that defense. Don’t be surprised if Elliott has his best game yet here in Week 6.

Jets passing game

After missing the last few weeks with mono, Sam Darnold is back with the Jets and has been cleared to play in this game. I can’t say I’m running to him as a fantasy starter, but this is obviously great news for the Jets offense as a whole. The Cowboys are allowing just 11.9 fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers, the sixth-fewest in football. Darnold could be rusty but his return makes you feel a lot better about these Jets pass-catchers.

Both Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder are $4,000 on DraftKings, making them absolutely in play. Crowder was targeted 17 times in his only game with Darnold back in Week 1 and with tight end Chris Herndon not expected to play with a hamstring injury, the middle of the field should solely belong to Crowder. He is the preferred cash play, especially in an Adam Gase offense that has featured the slot receiver in the past.

Anderson is the GPP play, as Darnold has been inconsistent with his deep ball in his young career. You know he has slate-breaking upside, as he’s seeing 43 percent of the Jets air yards this year, the third-highest rate among any receiver in football. Darnold only averaged 4.3 deep ball attempts per game last year but Anderson was more involved in the second half of the season, averaging 8.5 targets per game over the final eight games of the season.

Jets running game

The results haven’t been pretty but volume has certainly been on Le’Veon Bell’s side this season. He ranks third in the NFL in opportunity share at 88 percent, while averaging a gaudy 24.6 touches per game. Bell has run 120 routes, ninth-most among running backs, but he is also the only one inside the top-15 that had a bye week already. That equates to 30 routes per game. But because the Jets offense has been so poor, Bell has just five total red zone touches, which ranks 43rd among running backs. Hopefully, Darnold’s presence results in longer drives, as New York is averaging 4.6 plays per drive, the fewest in football.

You also want the offensive line to play better in New York. Per Graham Barfield of NFL.com, the Jets are creating just 0.38 yards before contact, the worst mark in the league, while Bell has been contacted at or behind the line of scrimmage on 58 percent of his carries. However, Dallas was just destroyed on the ground by Aaron Jones last week and Bell will be as involved as any back in football. I love him at $6,400 on DK and you should view him as a top-seven back in seasonal leagues this week.

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