Detroit Lions @ Oakland Raiders
Total: 50
Line: OAK -2
Lions passing game
I was all over the Detroit aerial attack last week and they went off. Now they are in a very similar spot this week, the only difference being that they are away from home. Matthew Stafford just went for 342 yards and three touchdowns against a Giants defense that struggles to limit big passing plays and now he faces another defense that surrenders a ton of explosive plays in the Raiders. Oakland has allowed 35 passing plays of 20 yards or more, tied for the second-most in the NFL, while also allowing eight such plays of at least 40 yards, the third-most in football. The Raiders are also allowing 12.2 yards per completion to this point, the fourth-highest mark in the league.
This all bodes extremely well for Stafford, who leads the league with 48 deep ball attempts, averaging nearly seven per game. Meanwhile, 19.6 percent of his pass attempts have traveled 20 yards or more down the field, the highest rate among qualified quarterbacks. A big reason why the Raiders allow so many deep passing plays is because they don’t get after the quarterback, sporting the league’s lowest pressure rate at 12.9 percent. Look for Stafford to continue to produce, especially against this pass funnel in Oakland.
After a dud in Week 7, Kenny Golladay exploded in Week 8, hauling in six balls for 123 yards and a pair of touchdowns. This is a very similar matchup and Golladay benefits with Stafford’s aggressive play, as he leads all wide receivers in football with 19 deep targets, averaging nearly three per game. He should be able to do whatever he wants against this bad Oakland defense that funnels a ton of production to the pass. In fact, 75.4 percent of all yardage surrendered by the Raiders has come through the air, the fourth-highest rate in football.
Meanwhile, 79.1 percent of the touchdowns scored against Oakland have come via the pass, the fourth-highest rate in football, while Golladay is still among the league leaders in end zone targets with nine. The Raiders are allowing the sixth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers on the year, so Golladay is in another smash spot.
It seems like it’ll be rare for all of these Detroit pass-catchers to go off, as Marvin Jones caught just four balls for 22 yards last week. Of course, there is always upside with Jones, who sees a ton of high-leverage targets for fantasy. His 13 deep targets are eighth in the league, while his five end zone targets are 12th-most. Jones gets a favorable matchup against Trayvon Mullen, who has allowed 2.63 yards per cover route, the second-most among all cornerbacks on the slate this week. He is also allowing 0.50 fantasy points per route, as well as 12.0 yards per target, presenting the big play Jones with immense upside in this spot.
Don’t look now, but Danny Amendola has been very productive over the last two weeks, hauling in 16 of 19 targets for 200 yards during that span. For the season, Amendola has been targeted on 17.6 percent of his snaps, which is the sixth-highest rate among receivers with at least 20 targets. With the current make-up of the Lions ground game, they could continue to use Amendola and his 8.7 aDOT as an extension of the running game. The Raiders are allowing 23.1 points per game to the slot this year, the seventh-most in the league, making Amendola a viable PPR flex play in deeper leagues.
Lions running game
Yikes.
After many fantasy owners emptied their budget on Ty Johnson last week, the Lions deployed a committee at running back. It was recently signed Tra Carson who got the start and led the backfield with 12 carries. Johnson still led the team with 40 percent of the snaps, but Carson was right behind him at 30 percent, while J.D. McKissic as at 25 percent. This is a full-blown committee, making it difficult to want to use anyone, regardless of the matchup.
Raiders passing game
I was also all over Derek Carr last week, so it was good to see that one work out. Carr threw for 285 yards and three touchdowns last week against the Texans and has now scored multiple touchdowns in three of his last four games. Although the price has come up, I still am fine with using him in one of the few games of the week with a high total. Detroit’s defense has been underwhelming and banged up for most of the season, and injuries to their defensive line have limited them to a 17.7 percent pressure rate, the fifth-lowest in football. The Lions are also allowing two passing touchdowns per game this season, while Carr has performed well in play-action, sporting the league’s best completion rate off the play type at 78.6 percent.
Tyrell Williams returned to the lineup last week and scored another touchdown. The guy has found the end zone in every game this season, while seeing 36.4 percent of Oakland’s targets from inside the 10-yard line, the fifth-highest rate among all receivers. He has also seen 16.7 percent of the team’s end zone targets, the 11th-highest rate in all of football. Williams has caught 66.7 percent of his contested targets, the fourth-best rate in the league, and when he’s been on the field, he’s been very good. The touchdowns have helped him average 4.04 fantasy points per touch (fourth-most) and 0.29 fantasy points per snap (14th-most). Lions cornerback Darius Slay was not traded but he is still banged up. If he can’t go, Detroit would throw Rashaan Melvin on Williams, who has allowed 15.4 yards per reception on the year, one of the higher marks in the league.
It wasn’t the most efficient game ever but Darren Waller scored again last week while seeing another eight targets. He still leads all tight ends with a 26.7 percent target share, while his 30.7 percent target rate per route run is third-best among tight ends. Look for him to remain involved, facing a Detroit defense that has allowed three tight end touchdowns over the last three weeks.
Raiders running game
Josh Jacobs has looked the part this season. He has averaged at least 4.4 yards per carry in all but one game this season, averaging 5.0 yards per clip on the year. Jacobs is averaging 3.84 yards after contact per attempt on the season, the fourth-highest mark among all running backs in the NFL. He is averaging a healthy 19.3 touches per game on the year and is second in the league with 35 avoided tackles on the ground. The Raiders are slight home favorites this week, which should keep him on the field quite a bit, though he is running about 14 routes per game over his last three games, compared to his 10 routes per game during the first four weeks of the season.
The Lions have struggled to defend the run this season, as just 13 percent of carries against them have been stuffed at the line of scrimmage, the third-lowest rate in football. And since Week 3, Detroit has allowed a whopping nine running back touchdowns, while ranking bottom-three in fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. Jacobs is a must-start and an elite mid-range play in daily formats.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Seattle Seahawks
Total: 52
Line: SEA -6
Buccaneers passing game
In typical Jameis Winston fashion, he turned the ball over four times, yet still scored over 26 fantasy points. A similar outing would never be shocking but Seattle’s defense isn’t as good as Tennessee’s. They generate pressure at the second-lowest rate in the league (15.5 percent), while coughing up the third-most passing yards (2,186). And while it was on 52 pass attempts, the Seahawks just let Matt Schaub throw for 460 yards against them last week. The Seahawks are also allowing a healthy 11.2 yards per completion (ninth-most), while Winston has remained as aggressive as ever, ranking second in the league with 46 deep ball attempts. The turnovers are sure to be there but Winston is a fine fantasy starter, just as long as he has those weapons on the outside.
Speaking of his receivers, how about Mike Evans? Every single time people think he’s on the decline, he goes off for a monster performance. That was the case last week, as he caught 11 of 12 targets for 198 yards and a pair of touchdowns, as he roasted the Titans secondary corners. This kind of upside will be there every week with Evans, as he is the main downfield option in this passing game. He is second in the league with 17 deep targets, averaging 2.7 pet game, while 27 percent of his looks have come 20 yards or more down the field this season. His 0.57 fantasy points per pass route is 12th-best in the league, putting him in GPP consideration every single week, and of course, you aren’t benching him in seasonal leagues.
While Evans is the more consistent deep threat in this offense, Chris Godwin is still making plays down the field, ranking sixth in the league in yards per target (11.4) and ninth in yards per pass route (2.87). He is top-eight in both fantasy points per pass route (0.62) and fantasy points per target (2.48) and over the last three weeks, Tampa Bay has reverted to that pass-happy approach, calling pass 67.9 percent of the time. Godwin and Evans have combined for nearly 52 percent of the Bucs targets this season, making them both top-10 plays each and every week.
Cameron Brate got the start for the injured O.J. Howard last week and while the final numbers weren’t fantastic (3-32), he ran 37 routes, the fourth-most among all tight ends for the week. Seattle has struggled to defend tight ends this season, coughing up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the position (13.2). They are also allowing the third-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends (71.0), while allowing a touchdown in three of the last four games to tight ends, and it would have been four if Mark Andrews could catch the football. If Howard is out again, Brate is a top-10 fantasy option.
Buccaneers running game
Since Week 4, Dare Ogunbowale has played 38 percent of the snaps, with Ronald Jones at 31 percent and Peyton Barber at 29 percent. Yikes. I really don’t want to use any of these backs this week, or any week, as long as they are all active.
Seahawks passing game
The only concern with Russell Wilson is the same concern every week—how many times will he throw the football? Seattle was content with him throwing the ball just 20 times last week, though he tossed a pair of touchdowns. You need the Bucs to put up points to unlock Wilson’s true ceiling, but the most efficient passer in football should be able to pick apart this secondary whenever he does drop back to pass. No quarterback in football is averaging more fantasy points per dropback than Wilson (0.59), while Tampa Bay is allowing the eighth-most fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers (21.1).
The Bucs are also coughing up the third-most total air yards on completions (1,190), while Wilson is third in the league with 44 deep ball attempts, averaging 5.5 per game. He is also averaging 9.6 air yards per attempt, one of the highest numbers in the league. It is entirely possible that Tampa Bay slows down the run, as they’ve done that all year. As a result, 80.6 percent of all yardage surrendered by this defense has come through the air, easily the highest rate in the NFL. Consider Wilson a top-two quarterback play this week and the clear top option on the main slate.
We keep expecting Tyler Lockett’s efficiency to drop but it just isn’t happening. He is eighth in the league with 2.42 fantasy points per target, while Wilson is sporting a 138.8 rating when targeting Lockett, the third-best mark in football. Lockett has recorded 50 yards or a touchdown in every single game this season and faces a bad Tampa Bay secondary that is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts. His $7,500 price tag on DK is scary because he is averaging just 6.8 targets per game but his insane efficiency and an elite matchup could counter that here.
It was bound to happen and D.K. Metcalf found the end zone twice last week. The rookie still leads the league with 12 end zone targets, seeing 27.9 percent of Seattle’s end zone targets, the highest rate in the league. Metcalf is seventh in the league in yards per reception (17.5) and this matchup won’t make you suddenly feel bad about him.
Seahawks running game
Chris Carson has had at least 20 carries in five consecutive games and during that span, he is second in the league with 129 carries, averaging 22 per game. The matchup this week is tough, as the Bucs are allowing just 3.0 yards per attempt, the lowest rate in the league. They are also stuffing 32 percent of all carries at the line of scrimmage, the highest rate in the NFL. Still, Carson’s volume and role in this offense are too good to pass on, and it was also good to see him remain the true workhorse in a game where Rashaad Penny actually got some work, carrying the ball eight times for 55 yards.
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos
Total: 39
Line: CLE -3.5
Browns passing game
I’m sorry. I’m just still not interested in Baker Mayfield right now. While he looked better at times last week against the Patriots, there is still too much bad here. Baker still looks lost when the first read isn’t there and the Browns aren’t consistently doing anything to make it easier on him. A road meeting with the Broncos isn’t very enticing, as Denver is allowing 1.57 points per drive this year, the fifth-fewest in the league. They are also allowing the seventh-fewest yards per completion (9.7) and fifth-fewest yards per pass attempt (6.2). The Broncos are also allowing the fourth-fewest passing touchdowns per game (0.8), making Mayfield an avoid once again for me this week.
With Chris Harris still in Denver, I’d imagine they use him to shadow Odell Beckham. Beckham is talented enough to win against any cornerback in the league, and his price is as low as it has ever been in DFS. However, Harris has been really good in shadow coverage this season, allowing just six catches for 103 yards and zero touchdowns. Odell hasn’t scored since Week 2, though he is still fifth in the league with a healthy 27.4 percent target share. If the Browns ever figure things out on offense, Beckham is going to explode because the talent is clearly still there. But until then, he is more of a top-20 wide receiver than top-10.
I prefer Jarvis Landry in this spot and at his $4,500 DK price tag, he is actually one of my favorite wide receiver plays of the slate. Landry has seen over 24 percent of the targets this year, while his 2.39 yards per pass route are up from last year. His 16.8 yards per reception are 12th-most in the league and easily a career-high. We have seen secondary receivers get to the Broncos because Harris is handling the opposition’s top wideout.
Browns running game
Nick Chubb continues to look really good with the football in his hands and if it weren’t for his two fumbles, he would have had a huge game against the Patriots last week. Despite the offensive woes for Cleveland, Chubb still is averaging 5.6 yards per touch (12th), while his 11 rushes of 15 yards or more are the second-most in the NFL. The Browns continue to feed him the rock, as he is sporting the league’s fifth-highest opportunity rate (83.9 percent), making him a must-play every week. I also like his price on DK, especially when there are question marks surrounding other running backs in his price range. 43 percent of the touchdowns scored against the Broncos this season have come on the ground, the 10th-highest rate in football.
Broncos passing game
With Joe Flacco sidelined with a neck injury, it’ll be Brandon Allen under center for the Broncos for the time being. This is his first time Allen will be the starting quarterback for an NFL franchise and we really don’t know much about him. I know this slate is tough but it isn’t tough enough to warrant considering Allen, even at just $4,100.
The real question is how does this impact the Denver pass-catchers? Well, with Emmanuel Sanders gone and DaeSean Hamilton coming off a goose egg, you are probably only really considering Courtland Sutton, who has come on during his sophomore campaign. Sutton has handled 40 percent of Denver’s air yards this season, the sixth-highest rate among all wide receivers, while ranking inside the top-13 in both yards per target (10.4) and yards per pass route (2.70). There is still plenty of upside here and Sutton should remain the focal point of the passing game but with question marks surrounding the quarterback, he is downgraded to a WR3 and a risky DFS investment.
There could be potential for a bounce back for Hamilton. I mean, all he’ll have to do is catch one pass and it’ll be considered improvement, after all. But he played 62 percent of the snaps, with 29 of 45 snaps coming from the slot. The Browns got both Denzel Ward and Greedy Williams back, which could limit production to the outside. We just saw Julian Edelman score two touchdowns from the slot last week, making it five touchdowns allowed to the slot for Cleveland this year. And if you are feeling really frisky, you can consider punting Fred Brown at just $3,200, who played one more snap than Hamilton last week and has likely worked with Allen during practices in the beginning of the season.
Broncos running gameÂ
Royce Freeman has scored a touchdown in consecutive weeks and is suddenly eating into Phillip Lindsay’s short yardage, which Lindsay could hold his hat on whenever Freeman would steal pass-catching work. However, over the last two weeks, Freeman has two carries from inside the five-yard line, while Lindsay has just one. He has also out-carried him in the red zone 8-3 during that same span. The Browns can be had on the ground, coughing up the ninth-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields, as well as the 10th-most rushing yards per game to the position.
Green Bay Packers @ Los Angeles Chargers
Total: 48.5
Line: GB -3.5
Packers passing game
The demise of Aaron Rodgers has been greatly exaggerated. Rodgers has been incredible over the last three weeks, passing for 1,017 yards, 10 touchdowns and scoring 90.2 fantasy points, all the most among signal callers during that span. He is also sporting an 82.1 adjusted completion percentage and has just made some flat out stupid-good throws. Only Lamar Jackson is averaging more fantasy points per dropback during that span (0.78) and Rodgers has been doing all of this without his top wideout, and one of the best in the game. His recent play has helped him get back to that top-five quarterback status, especially against a depleted and struggling Chargers defense. The only concern is that the Packers will run the ball down their throats.
Hello, Davante Adams. After missing the last four games with a toe injury, Adams has returned to practice and was in pads on Thursday, giving him a terrific chance at returning this week. If he plays for the Packers, he plays for my fantasy lineups, despite the long absence and the fact that he will likely see shadow coverage from Casey Hayward. Rodgers has played great but he still clearly misses his trustworthy receiver, so I’d expect him to be plenty involved right away, especially in the red zone.
If Adams sits, I think you can go back to Allen Lazard, who is suddenly emerging into Green Bay’s number-two or three receiver. He led all Packers wideouts in snaps last Sunday night with 46, while Geronimo Allison played 44 and Marquez Valdes-Scantling played 43. Lazard was in the slot 65.6 percent of the time, while Allison lined up there nearly 80 percent of the time, which is perhaps the worst spot to be against the Chargers and nickel corner Desmond King, who has allowed just 18 catches and on touchdown in slot coverage this season.
Meanwhile, tight end Jimmy Graham will remain inconsistent but the tight end position is so bad and this guy still leads all tight ends with six end zone targets, seeing 19 percent of Green Bay’s end zone looks. Of course, that number will go down if Adams returns to the lineup, but the Chargers continue to miss their top two safeties, altering how well they can defend opposing tight ends.
Packers running game
Aaron Jones has been ridiculous this season. He is coming off a huge game against the Chiefs where he recorded 226 scrimmage yards, a career high, and the most by a Green Bay player since 2003. Jones has already scored 11 touchdowns this season and remains super efficient, averaging nearly six yards per touch and 10.4 yards per reception. He has been used more in the passing game with Adams sidelined, as Rodgers trusts Jones. Since Week 5, Jones is averaging a gaudy 6.7 targets per game, while still carrying the ball a healthy 14 times per game.
Of course, the presence of Jamaal Williams is keeping Jones from being an every-down back. Since Week 6, Jones has played 56 percent of the snaps, while Williams is at 47 percent. And during that same span, Jones is touching the ball on 44.7 percent of his snaps, with Williams at 37 percent. Jones is still the preferred play and is fourth in the league with eight carries from inside the five-yard line since Williams returned. The matchup is great, too, as the Chargers just allowed a career day to David Montgomery last week and are now coughing up the 10th-most fantasy points per game to opposing backfields. They also lead the NFL in missed tackles with 63, while Jones had avoided a healthy 30 total tackles on the year. He’s a low-end RB1, while Williams can be viewed as a flex.
Chargers passing game
Philip Rivers should have had a better fantasy day than the numbers show last week, but he had two touchdowns dropped. However, it was still another week where the Chargers offense had you scratching your head with their play-calling and decision-making. However, because this team cannot run the ball right now, Rivers is suddenly fourth in the league with 305 pass attempts, averaging just over 38 per game. And over the last three weeks, only the Bengals are calling pass at a higher rate than the Chargers (70.8 percent). Now this is a spot where they could be able to run the football but they could also be playing from behind, while Green Bay’s pass defense has taken a step back as of late.
Keenan Allen looked like he was going to miss last week’s game but he suited up and caught seven of 10 targets for 53 yards. He dropped one of the touchdowns and despite reports that he might be limited, Allen still played around 69 percent of the snaps, so while he was, it wasn’t as much as I thought. The hamstring is apparently still bothering him, while the All-Pro receiver hasn’t reached 70 yards or scored a touchdown since Week 3. The Packers could shadow him with Jaire Alexander here, especially with the size of Kevin King matching up well with the size of Mike Williams on the other side. Allen is more of a high-end WR2 this week with some added risk involved with that hamstring.
Williams, meanwhile, still hasn’t scored a touchdown this season, despite ranking seventh in the league in end zone targets. He is as due as anyone in the league right now and was dangerously close to scoring last week. Again, King has the size to combat him but he’s also the weaker of the top two corners for the Packers, coughing up the most yards in coverage this season (567). He is also allowing 2.21 yards per coverage snap, the second-most among qualified cornerbacks in the league. Once again, I like him in tournaments this week. A big game is coming.
Finally, you are using Hunter Henry as a top-seven tight end every single week. Since he returned to the lineup back in Week 6, only Austin Hooper has run more routes than Henry’s 96, while averaging a healthy 2.54 yards per pass route. During that same span, he leads all tight ends in fantasy points per snap (0.39), targets (23) and yards (244). He is running a route on around 80 percent of Rivers’ dropbacks too.
Chargers running game
Yuck.
Melvin Gordon may have scored another touchdown last week but he continues to look bad, averaging just 2.7 yards per touch, 53rd among all running backs in the league. The Chargers rushing attack has looked awful as of late, as they’ve been under 40 total rushing yards in four consecutive games. Now they are facing a Packers run defense that is stuffing just 13% of carries at or behind the line of scrimmage this year, the third-lowest rate in football, so perhaps they can get it going. Gordon is still getting the goal line work so it wouldn’t surprise me to see him breakout this week with multiple touchdowns.
Meanwhile, Austin Ekeler is the opposite. He’s super efficient but isn’t getting enough work. If the Chargers are trailing in games, Ekeler will be an RB2 in fantasy, as he’s being targeted on 17 percent of his snaps on the year, the fifth-highest rate among all running backs. If the Chargers keep this game close, Gordon will likely be the better fantasy asset, especially against a Green Bay defense allowing 43 percent of all touchdowns to come via the run, the 10th-highest rate in football.
