NFL Matchups: Atlanta Falcons at Arizona Cardinals Fantasy Football Preview

This a snippet of Adam Pfeifer’s NFL matchups column, previewing the Falcons vs. the Cardinals for Fantasy Football Lineups. Fantasy rosters needed protective spray because key players continue to miss extended time due to injury. Multiple backup quarterbacks are projected to start, and running backs and wide receivers are getting whittled down every week. As a result, we missed on plenty in this article, but we hit on plenty, as well. Back on the horse. With that in mind, let’s dig into some NFL DFS matchups and NFL game breakdowns for your Week 6 Fantasy Football Lineups on DraftKings, FanDuel, Yahoo and FantasyDraft.

To read the FULL column, click HERE.

Don’t forget to check out the Strategy Show, on every morning at 11 AM EST.



Not a member of Awesemo.com? Enjoy 50% off any weekly or monthly Awesemo+ package with promo code MATCHUPS. Join now and gain access to all of the projections, rankings, and expected ownership percentages you need to get ahead of The Masses in DFS NFL, NBA, NHL, PGA and more. This LIMITED OFFER NOW INCLUDES the FantasyCruncher Add-on as part of the package.

Atlanta Falcons @ Arizona Cardinals

Total: 51.5

Line: ATL -2.5

Falcons passing game

Dating back to last season, Matt Ryan has six consecutive 300-yard outings, making him appealing on DraftKings every single week. Of course, there are more reasons to love Ryan here. For starters, he remains a volume monster, leading the NFL in pass attempts with 222. Despite some red zone hiccups, Ryan still ranks third in pressured completion rate (49.3%) and fourth in play-action completion rate (74.5%). The latter is more impressive given the fact that Atlanta hasn’t been able to run the ball, which is a big reason why Ryan has attempted so many passes.

Given the way this offense (and defense) looks, Ryan is seemingly a lock for 300 yards, and in a game like this, three or four touchdowns is a strong possibility. We know the Cardinals lead the league in pace but the Falcons are also playing fast, averaging 26.4 seconds per play, the sixth-fastest pace in football. These teams also rank first and sixth in passing play percentage, so both offenses should see plenty of possessions here. Arizona is coughing up 0.60 fantasy points per pass attempt this season, the fourth-most in the league. Fire up Ryan as a borderline top-five play this week in what should be a shootout.

We have seen consecutive underwhelming games from Julio Jones as the All-Pro wideout has totaled seven catches for 94 yards over the last two weeks. He should get back to posting elite numbers this week, as the Cardinals will be without Patrick Peterson for one more week. The issues with the Falcons offensive line has made it a bit more difficult for Ryan to find Jones deep down the field but Jones is still sixth in the league in deep targets with six, averaging 2.20 per game. Jones is the obvious receiver to pair Ryan with and has a huge ceiling per usual, but especially in this style of game.

Calvin Ridley broke out of a mini slump last week, catching five balls for 88 yards and a touchdown. Ridley is still someone I’m saving for tournaments because his volume is so inconsistent, seeing target totals of six, 10, one, six and nine. He still leads the team in aDOT at 15.3, a number that also ranks 11th among qualified receivers. At his $5,700 price tag, I probably won’t play him outside of game stacks, though there is plenty of potential, as the Cardinals have allowed multiple touchdown passes in all but one game this year. Despite the dream spot, his inconsistent usage makes Ridley a borderline top-25 play for me.

Very quietly, Mohamed Sanu leads the Falcons in routes run with 211, a number that ranks third among all wideouts. Sanu scored his first touchdown of the year last week and has now caught at least five passes in each of his last three games. He’s accomplished that feat in all but one game this year, too. Given his snaps, routes and the pass-happy offense he’s in, Sanu will provide a very strong floor most week, making him a solid cash game play. Because Ryan has been under pressure about six percent more often than last year, Sanu and his intermediate game have benefited, as his 7.34 aDOT is the 10th-lowest in football. In a high-pace game against a poor defense, Sanu has more upside than usual and is a very strong play.

The chart. It is flowing. Tight ends against the Cardinals continue to be the move, despite what Tyler Eifert did (or didn’t do) last week. Arizona has coughed up six tight end touchdowns already, as well as the most fantasy points per game to the position. Hooper has been locked in this year, running a route on 80 percent of Ryan’s dropbacks. And when you consider Ryan leads the NFL in dropbacks (240), you love Hooper’s upside. His 19.5 percent target share is seventh-best among tight ends, while his 8.6 yards per target is eighth-best. Because he’s been so involved this year, you can legitimately make the argument that Hooper is the best tight end play of the slate.

Falcons running game

It was another inefficient day on the ground for Devonta Freeman, who is now averaging 3.2 yards per carry on the year. However, he caught all five of his targets for 40 yards and a score on Sunday, giving him 16 catches on 18 targets over the last three games. Ryan has checked it down to his running back more often this year, likely due to the aforementioned offensive line issues.

Ito Smith is still playing too much to consider Freeman anything more than a mid-range RB2, as he played 47 percent of the snaps last week, while Freeman was at 54 percent. Smith has also handled 57 percent of Atlanta’s carries from inside the 10-yard line, while Freeman is at just 28.6 percent, so you can’t say that Freeman is the unquestioned short-yardage back. Because of that, I won’t have any Freeman at near $6,000 on DK, but he remains a viable RB2 play in seasonal leagues.

Cardinals passing game

The Falcons pressured Deshaun Watson on six percent of his dropbacks last week, the lowest rate of his career, according to Next Gen Stats. That is insane and should tell you all you need to know about Kyler Murray’s prospects here in Week 6. Atlanta now ranks 31st in the league in sack rate (3.1%), which should help Murray and Arizona’s below average offensive line. After not running at all to start the season, Murray is running wild as of late. He rushed for 93 yards and a score last week, giving him 22 carries for 189 yards and a score over the last three weeks. This unlocks all sorts of upside with Murray, who could go nuts again in this spot.

The Falcons just allowed 430 yards and five scores to Watson last week, and are now coughing up 0.64 fantasy points per pass attempt, second-worst to only the Dolphins on the season. Atlanta is also allowing a touchdown on 65 percent of red zone trips, the ninth-highest rate in football. Murray, meanwhile, is tied for second among all signal callers in pass attempts from inside the 10-yard line this year (15). With a lack of pass rush and the Falcons allowing a healthy 11.7 yards per completion, we could also see Murray push the ball down the field more. The rookie is beginning to unlock his full potential and should smash this weak defensive unit.

Larry Fitzgerald underwhelmed last week against the Bengals, despite Christian Kirk missing this game. Fitzgerald is second in routes run (213) and continues to operate from the slot 94 percent of the time, the highest rate in the league. This is a dream spot for the veteran, as the Falcons are allowing 31.9 fantasy points per game to the slot, per PFF, the most in the league. He’ll line up against former safety Damontae Kazee, who has allowed 10 catches for 142 yards and a score on 13 targets in slot coverage. He is also coughing up nearly 0.50 fantasy points per route. 8-10 targets is essentially a lock for Fitzgerald, while that number could jump to the 12-15 range if Kirk sits out again with his ankle injury.

If Kirk is active, I would play him as a solid WR3 in this dream spot, as he also plays a ton in the slot with Arizona using four-wide over 70 percent of the time.

With Kirk out last weekend, KeeSean Johnson played 95 percent of the snaps. Meanwhile, Trent Sherfield was at 77 percent with Andy Isabella and recently-signed Pharoh Cooper combined for 28 total snaps. Of course, Damiere Byrd also sat out last week, opening up a ton of opportunity for these receivers. Both Kirk and Byrd were limited in practice and could return to the lineup this week, making all of these guys unplayable. If one or both sit, Johnson is worth a look as a punt, as he saw seven targets last week.

Cardinals running game

David Johnson is nursing a back issue and didn’t practice on Wednesday. It is entirely possible he doesn’t play this weekend, which would make Chase Edmonds, who touched the ball 11 times for 86 yards and a touchdown on Sunday, the absolute lock of the week. The Falcons have been better against pass-catching running backs this season but are still a poor defense and have allowed 100 rushing yards or a touchdown in four of five games this season. Of course, if Johnson plays, you roll him out there as a top-seven running back play. He’s averaging 6.6 targets per game this season, as the Cardinals continue to go extremely pass-heavy, especially when in close.

Click HERE to go back to the matchups column.

Author

Stokastic +

Premium Data and Tools
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims MLB
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Top Stack %s
MLB Data Central
FREE DATA
SoRare MLB Rankings
DraftKings Night Owl
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
MLB Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
MLB Discord Server
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Ownership Projections
PREMIUM TOOLS
Fantasy Cruncher (ADD-ON)
NHL Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
NHL Discord Server
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims PGA
PREMIUM DATA
Ownership Projections
Top Golfers Tool
PGA Tournament Models
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
PGA Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
PGA Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Drivers Tool
NASCAR Discord Server
NASCAR Fantasy Cruncher
USFL Projections
USFL Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Fighters Tool
MMA Discord Server
MMA Fantasy Cruncher
NFL Betting Tools
Stokastic Discord Server
Best Ball
Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball Stat Projections
Stokastic Discord Server
Season Long Fantasy (Coming Soon)

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox

Stokastic.com - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics

Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.